As wonderful as Murphy was in that show, has Ebersole not won it would've gone to McDonald. McDonald and Murphy tied at The Drama Desk Awards, and Murphy won the Outer Critics Circle Award. So, I wouldn't necessarily say that McDonald was a lock to win if Ebersole hadn't been in the picture.
For this year--again, we know that Murphy is a favorite at the Tonys, but she's also opening a new musical that we know almost nothing about. Seriously, last June we were all saying how Sherie would be the clear favorite and how WOMEN ON THE VERGE was going to be the best musical in years. You really can't make these kinds of predictions so far in advance.
Re: Miller--I am not sure, but didn't she not receive the greatest reviews in London?
"You travel alone because other people are only there to remind you how much that hook hurts that we all bit down on. Wait for that one day we can bite free and get back out there in space where we belong, sail back over water, over skies, into space, the hook finally out of our mouths and we wander back out there in space spawning to other planets never to return hurrah to earth and we'll look back and can't even see these lives here anymore. Only the taste of blood to remind us we ever existed. The earth is small. We're gone. We're dead. We're safe."
-John Guare, Landscape of the Body