Best Musical Predictions Pick-Em!

[Daddy Warbucks]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 11:21am

Now that Hamilton is definitely out for this season, I think it leaves one of the more interesting Tony races for Best Musical. Predictions for who will be nominated and who will ultimately win? [Return here for post-nomination and post-Tony bragging rights if you pick all the nominees and/or the ultimate winner correctly.]

1.
2.
3.
4.
(5)

Winner:

[Bilbo3]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 11:24am

I'm rooting for Fun Home and Finding Neverland. The Best revival race is a bit more interesting than the Best Musical race for me this year.

[ggersten]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 11:28am

I'm going to wait until the shows actually open to make predictions.
What looks good on paper isn't always good on stage.

[imeldasturn]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 11:30am

Fun Home

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 11:36am

As of now, my Best Musical nomination predictions are:
An American in Paris
Doctor Zhivago
Fun Home
Honeymoon in Vegas
The Visit

[GreasedLightning]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 11:45am

I honestly don't think Zhivago or Honeymoon have a chance.

[JonahKost]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 11:48am

Best Musical:
1. Something Rotten!
2. Fun Home
3. Finding Neverland
4. Doctor Zhivago
5. The Visit

[CapnHook]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 12:03pm

Fun Home
Something Rotten!
The Visit
An American In Paris
Finding Neverland

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 12:17pm

"I honestly don't think Zhivago or Honeymoon have a chance."

Why doesn't Honeymoon have a chance? Sure, it's been struggling at the box office, but it still got rave reviews from the critics. I can tell the producers are trying to keep the show open with hopes they can make it into awards season to see how the box office could benefit from its potential Tony nominations.

I can kind of understand your doubts about Doctor Zhivago as most people on these boards are just expecting it to fail. But from the musical previews I've heard, it sounds like it has great potential (as do many of the shows this season)!

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 12:18pm

I second CapnHook's picks

[Back Row]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 12:33pm

I'm surprised that there has been no mention of The Last Ship thus far.

[ljay889]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 12:56pm

If Honeymoon is still running come nomination time, I absolutely wouldn't rule it out for a slot.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 12:56pm

"I'm surprised that there has been no mention of The Last Ship thus far."

That's probably because the show itself was only received more kind reviews from the critics than actual raves. Though Sting could still get nominated for Original Score. Updated On: 3/7/15 at 12:56 PM

[GreasedLightning]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 1:01pm

You seem to be insistent on the whole reviews:nominations ratio. Last time I checked, rave reviews from critics had NOTHING to do with nominations/winners. Completely separate entities. It may be taken into account, sure, but is not a deciding factor in the slightest. Shows are nominated based on a number of factors of their quality. A nominator (knowing one personally, myself) isn't going to say "Hey, this got an amazing review in The Wall Street Journal, so I'm going to nominate it."

A show like Honeymoon may be recognized and nominated for their hard work and efforts in staying open and running through a tough, tough run... but not because someone at the New York Times liked it.

Updated On: 3/7/15 at 01:01 PM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 1:09pm

"A show like Honeymoon may be recognized and nominated for their hard work and efforts in staying open and running through a tough, tough run..."

That's another reason why I think it deserves a Best Musical nomination. It worked in favor for Gentleman's Guide last year.

And sure, reviews may not be the ones to decide who's nominated or not, but often times the great thinkers (like critics and nominators) do think a like.

[Scarlet Leigh]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 2:15pm

It is still hard to tell since a lot of things have yet to open and how they will be received is a question mark. Think of last season before Bullets Over Broadway opened. Everyone thought it would be a hit. Look how that turned out. At this point, if I had to put money on it, I would say the ballot will look like:

- An American in Paris
- Finding Neverland *On that 5th Place Bubble Spot*
- Fun Home
- Something Rotten
- The Visit

Zhivago and Honeymoon are sitting in the wings if Neverland and Something Rotten both bomb with the critics but I think the other three are pretty safe bets.

[tazber]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 2:22pm

I agree with Cap'n and Scarlet.

Although I could see The Last Ship getting in over either Paris of Neverland.

[Robbie2]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 2:54pm

Musical
Fun Home
The Visit
Something Rotten!
An American In Paris
Finding Neverland

Winner: Fun Home or Something Rotten!

[kade.ivy]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 5:11pm

I'll play along:
1. Something Rotten
2. Fun Home
3. The Visit
4. Finding Neverland
5 (if they nominate a fifth show): Zhivago or Honeymoon

Winner: Something Rotten!

Reasoning: I'm thinking Fun Home will get Best Score but the voters will opt for the more traditional Something Rotten for Best Musical.

[Daddy Warbucks]

Posted: 3/7/15 at 11:54pm

1. An American in Paris
2. Fun Home
3. Something Rotten
4. The Visit

Winner: I would have guessed Fun Home two months ago, but I think the buzz has died down a little, and I'm predicting the Visit comes in for a surprise win.

[Buddy Plummer2]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 12:06am

Locks:
Fun Home

Very Possible:
The Visit
Honeymoon in Vegas
An American in Paris
Finding Neverland

Possible:
Something Rotten (unless this opens and surprises everyone, the above is probably the list)

Dark Horses:
Doctor Zhivago
It Shoulda Been You
The Last Ship

[gleek4114]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 12:16am

1. Fun Home
2. The Visit
3. Finding Neverland
4. Something Rotten!
5. It Shoulda Been You

Winner: The Visit

Updated On: 3/8/15 at 12:16 AM

[Falling]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 12:26am

1. Fun Home
2. Something Rotten
3. An American in Paris
4. Honeymoon in Vegas
5. The Visit or Finding Neverland

Winner: I think it's between Fun Home and Something Rotten, with An American in Paris as the dark horse. Two months can generate a lot of buzz (it's 10 weeks really).

[VotePeron]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 1:10am

I believe the moment FUN HOME begins previews, and people are reminded, and exposed to, its absolute incredibleness, it will become a lock to win.

[dented146]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 1:34am

How can something not have a chance when no one has seen it?