Best Musical Predictions Pick-Em!- Page 2

[brdway411]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 1:59am

HIV

[Scarlet Leigh]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 4:06am

I think Fun Home's only REAL competition here is Something Rotten... IF it comes out on top as a hit. Being that this is a world premiere production, there is no telling just what the reception of Something Rotten will be to both critics and audiences. It all really hinges on that show. Could turn out to be the surprise hit of the season OR it could be the what were they thinking of the season.

Either way, I can't see any of the others giving Fun Home a run for it's money, but it's an honor just to be nominated?

[Up In One]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 9:00am

Of what I've seen either in New York or in prior incarnations...
Fun Home will get nominated and should win
The Last Ship should get nominated and should win for score
It Shoulda Been You should not get nominated unless there has been a wholesale rewrite rethink
Honeymoon In Vegas. Should get nominated but not come close to winning

From the reviews I've read and the buzz I've sensed

An American In Paris - should get nominated and has a possibility of winning depending on how it's received here
The Visit - will get nominated and not win
Something Rotten - is the wild card - the clips I saw out of a presentation in Seattle and the press presentation in New York looked hopeless but the advertising campaign is cute. It Is a comedy and its opening in the spring and can get the free Tony advertising. If it were written by the Book of Mormon or Monty Python crew I'd have more hope for it but it's going to be an uphill battle getting tourists interested. There was a room full of insiders who thought enough about to inspire it straight to Broadway.
Finding Neverland - can go either way it was a tedious mess of boredom and some cool stage effects in Boston which also needs some major rewrites that I doubt the writing team can produce. But Peter Pan and Disney related titles do generate interest in the kids market.

So my predictions....

1. Fun Home - for sure
2. An American In Paris - for sure

2. Something Rotten - probably

3. Honeymoon in Vegas - possibly
4. The Visit - possibly

5. Finding Neverland - doubtful

6. It Shoulda Been You - not

PS: I forgot Zhivago thanks Kimbo but that is probably what others will do based on previous reviews in previous productions although we could use a soaring new vocal score based on what's available to nominate.

Updated On: 3/8/15 at 09:00 AM

[Kimbo]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 9:21am

Up In One's predictions are almost exactly what I would say -
except I think Fun Home, The Visit and Something Rotten are all virtually sure things-
An American in Paris the next most likely -
with Honeymoon in Vegas and Doctor Zhivago (the latter of which he forgot) duking it out for that 5th slot.
Like Up In On, and based on both (lack of) pedigree and previous reviews from previous productions, this season I just don't see Finding Neverland or It Shoulda Been You competing with all that company.

[Falling]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 9:58am

HogansHero-I think Fun Home will win best score (and deserves to). I do think Sting has a nomination in the bag.

I do agree An American in Paris has a very good shot at the top prize. It is a crowd pleasing show that will tour beautifully. Something Rotten has the male vote-and I tend to agree with you, Hogan, that had the Monty Python team or the Book of Mormon people put this together I might be more inclined to think it might have more buzz going in. Nonetheless, I think it will get a nod for its originality.

The 3 I really think are in contention are: An American in Paris, Fun Home and Something Rotten. Each one has its merits and advantages going in.

The Visit got mediocre reviews out of town with the exception of its leading lady (who I think will be how it's honored-Chita will win). It may get a nod out of respect for Kander and Ebb-but in a very crowded season, it's not a sure thing (I certainly believe they have a better shot than either Dr. Zhivago or It Shoulda Been You, but you never know how the nominators are going to go).

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 10:46am

If they decide on five nominees this year:

HONEYMOON
SOMETHING ROTTEN!
AN AMERICAN IN PARIS
FUN HOME
FINDING NEVERLAND

If not, I think NEVERLAND will get the axe. SR! is the one to beat. Updated On: 3/8/15 at 10:46 AM

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 10:50am

Agreed with CapnHook on his guesses

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 10:50am

How about I give you guys my thoughts on the rest of the new musicals coming this season?

An American in Paris-I myself am a fan of the original movie, and this stage adaptation looks incredible!

Doctor Zhivago-I know a lot of people are kind of expecting this to fail, but from what I've heard in the score, it sounds like it has great potential. It may not do well commercially, but in terms of artistic integrity, I'm rooting for it.

Finding Neverland-It may have been a big hit in Boston, but the critical reviews were still mixed. As it begins previews next week, it should be interesting to see how much has changed within the past six months.

Fun Home-I bought the cast album on iTunes, and it definitely sounds like something to keep an eye out for! The real question is how the show will end up translating into a Broadway house after having been successful in a much smaller venue (though it does seem like a safe bet by going into the Circle in the Square). I think it may have a better chance at winning Book than Score.

It Shoulda Been You-It got terrible reviews when it was last staged a few years ago, but who knows how much has changed since then? Though with that being said, aside from the performance Sierra Boggess seems to be giving, the press previews I didn't looked all that promising.

Something Rotten!-Since it's opening cold in New York, I'm only putting it as a dark horse for right now. Reading these boards, not a lot of people felt enthusiastic about the press previews. From my perspective, it does look like it has potential, and I could probably see it getting a couple nods for Christian Borle (as Featured Actor?) and Casey Nicholaw (as choreographer).

The Visit-Unless it ends up getting some pretty terrible reviews from the critics, I do think there will be a lot of support for The Visit since it took so long to get to Broadway, it's the last new(ish) score by Kander & Ebb, and Chita Rivera's final appearance on the Great White Way.

[temms]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 12:56pm

Because of earlier productions and the pedigree of the people involved, I feel pretty safe predicting that FUN HOME, AMERICAN IN PARIS, and THE VISIT are locks, which leaves one or two more from the "middle crop". If SOMETHING ROTTEN turns out to be good, I suspect that would be a frontrunner for slot 4. Of the remaining, I almost feel like LAST SHIP might look better in retrospect if ZHIVAGO and FINDING NEVERLAND are underwhelming. HONEYMOON I can't even begin to predict - I'm inclined to feel like it won't make the cut but nothing about that show seems to coincide with anything resembling logic. And of course the fifth slot isn't even a given.

I do feel fairly safe in predicting that HOLLER IF YA HEAR ME will not receive a Best Musical nomination.

[ggersten]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 2:17pm

On the 4 or 5 show nominations - the rule is this:

"Where there are nine or more eligible shows in a Best Show
category, at the Tony Nominating Meeting, the Nominating
Committee will be instructed to cast one vote each for four eligible
shows as nominees on his/her secret ballot. Such ballot shall be
collected and tabulated by a representative of the Accounting
Firm. The four eligible shows with the highest number of votes will
automatically be designated as the nominees in such category. A
fifth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the
Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between
the fourth highest ranked show and the fifth highest ranked show
is three votes or less."

I count 10 new shows - so this is the applicable rule.
The Rules - Rule j(ii)(A)

[ethan231h]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 7:41pm

Best Musical:
1. Fun Home
2. Something Rotten!
3. Finding Neverland
4. An American In Paris
5. The Visit

WINNER: IMO
FUN HOME

[After Eight]

Posted: 3/8/15 at 8:25pm

There is no contest, and there wasn't the minute that child began miauling that ghastly song.

It was a done deal then and there.

I'm very surprised the theatre-savvy folk on this board didn't know that immediately.

Updated On: 3/9/15 at 08:25 PM

[seahag2]

Posted: 3/9/15 at 2:05am

After Eight, why is there no contest?
And what has Fun Home done to you that's so terrible

[After Eight]

Posted: 3/9/15 at 3:47am

^

There is no contest because there is no contest.

It did nothing nothing to me except affront and sicken me.

[tazber]

Posted: 3/9/15 at 8:42am

As always a thoughtful and supported answer from AE.

Bravo!!

[firebolts]

Posted: 3/9/15 at 7:09pm

Fun Home!!, and I hope it sweeps everything. I'm glad Hamilton isn't eligible to be nominated; they can have their moment to shine next year. I've never had a musical hit me as hard as Fun Home, and I've seen and listened to MANY musicals.

Updated On: 3/9/15 at 07:09 PM

[SharoninB]

Posted: 3/9/15 at 9:32pm

we have not even seen half of the new musicals.