Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 11/4/18 — Page 2

BobbyBubby said: "Oh I forgot, people aren’t allowed opinions around here anymore that aren’t with the “majority”. "

Got it. You’re allowed your opinions, but others aren’t allowed opinions about your opinions even if it takes the form of an innocuous gif.

Looks like HPCC is about a week or 2 away from recouping it's entire investment. 8 months to do it, that's pretty good!

Really? How do you know?!

InTheBathroom1 said: "A week or two away? Where is that coming from?

I heard total with theatre renovations and the production itself, it cost around $65 million. There’s no way it’s recouping so soon."

I thought ATG ate the cost of the renovation and paid the full production cost remaining Paramour to Cirque Du Soleil. This was reported to be about $23 million, and the full budget for Harry Potter including the renovations was $68.5. Thus producers for Harry Potter were only responsible for $45 Million, as ATG ate the $23 million for renovations and Paramour closure, under the assumption Harry Potter would do gangbusters business guaranteeing them a steady tenant for at least 5-10 years. Or am I wrong?

If we assume the HP has a weekly nut of about $1.1 Million which I think is being fairly conservative. It is much more likely between $900k and $1M and will likely drop a good $50-100k when the Original 6 leave. Add to that they despite being a spectacle driven play, its still a play, so there are several costs associated with musicals such as an orchestra HP doesn't have to pay for. Back to the point though if we assume the weekly nut is about $1.1 Million the show has made approximately $30.9 in Net Profit as of November 4, 2018. If we assume the show maintains it current average grosses at $2.03 Million it looks like it with hit a net profit of about $49 million of the anniversary of its first preview in March. Thus under the assumption that ATG ate the renovation and Paramour costs HP should turn a profit in March. If HP's HP's producers are responsible to cover the costs then HP should turn a profit by the end of August 2019.



The two shows we should be waiting for a renouncement announcement any week now are Mean Girls and Frozen. Assuming Mean Girls has a nut of $800k its made $22.2 Million through November 4th, which seems like we should hear an announcement by Thanksgiving. Frozen under the assumption of a $900k nut, has a net profit of $31.4M. I am assuming Frozen has a capitalization of between $35m-and $40M so I would expect it in its "We Broke House Records" press release the week after Christmas it will have recouped. Since Frozen is Disney though, we shouldn't expect an announcement, but if its still paying to $1M+ weeks this time next year we can safely assume its recouped.

BobbyBubby said: "This happens every time anyone attempts to criticize Hamilton."

Oh, please. People criticize Hamilton ALL THE TIME. Not everyone loved it.

bdn223 said: "InTheBathroom1 said: "A week or two away? Where is that coming from?

I heard total with theatre renovations and the production itself, it cost around $65 million. There’s no way it’s recouping so soon."

I thought ATGate the cost of the renovation and paid the full production cost remaining Paramour to Cirque Du Soleil. This was reported to be about $23 million, and the full budget for Harry Potter including the renovations was $68.5. Thus producers for Harry Potter were only responsible for $45 Million, as ATGate the $23 million for renovations and Paramourclosure, under the assumption Harry Potter would do gangbusters business guaranteeing them a steady tenant for at least 5-10 years. Or am I wrong?

If we assume theHPhas a weekly nut of about $1.1 Million which I think is being fairly conservative. It is much more likely between $900k and $1M and will likely drop a good $50-100k when the Original 6 leave.Add to that they despite being a spectacle driven play, its still a play, so there are several costs associated with musicals such as an orchestraHPdoesn't have to pay for. Back to the point though if we assume the weekly nut is about $1.1 Million the show has made approximately $30.9 in Net Profit as of November 4, 2018. If we assume the show maintains it current average grosses at $2.03 Million it looks like it with hit a net profit of about $49 million of the anniversary of its first preview in March. Thus under the assumption that ATGate the renovation andParamourcostsHPshould turn a profit in March. IfHP's HP'sproducers are responsible to cover the costs thenHPshould turn a profit by the end of August 2019.



The two shows we should be waiting for a renouncement announcement any week now areMean GirlsandFrozen.AssumingMean Girlshas a nut of $800k its made $22.2 Million through November 4th, which seems like we should hear an announcement by Thanksgiving.Frozenunder the assumption of a $900k nut, has a net profit of $31.4M. I am assuming Frozen has a capitalization of between $35m-and $40M so I would expect it in its "We Broke House Records" press release the week after Christmas it will have recouped. SinceFrozenis Disneythough, we shouldn't expect an announcement, but if its still paying to $1M+ weeks this time next year we can safely assume its recouped."



Unless things have changed or I did not understand your analysis, I think you are wrong. Lets say show grosses $1Million a week and its weekly nut is $600,000; that does NOT mean that $400,000 gets returned to the investor pot for future distribution. As I remember reading years ago, that $400,000 is shared by the 'return investment pot', the creatives, the theatreowner, etc. It is possible that Disney has forced a different methodology -- I am not sure what latitude they would have in a highly unionized world to try to lower the creatives' shares of net earnings per week, or how they negotiated with the theatre owners, so I guess there is some latitude...but I seem to remember reading that on average about half of the net proceeds go to the investment pot.

I am not sure about theatre owners, but am pretty sure re creatives. They should benefit in the sharing of profits, else they are just hired help. If Hamilton was just breaking even at say $800K a week, LMM and the other creatives would be guaranteed a certain weekly base. But it is grossing $3MM a week only because of their work. Shouldn't they be sharing in those ridiculous profits which h only exist because of what they accomplished?

I have read that some stars are guaranteed a certain base salary, which goes up based on the grosses (e.g., recently Midler), and may go up again when it returns its investment (assuming the weekly grosses are still solid. I have always thought, based on long ago readings, that the creative are guaranteed in sharing in the profits.