Charts Informing The Broadway Reopening Timeline

For those (like me) who learn a lot from graphics, the Times has a pair or really good charts showing how two scenarios would play out in the race to put covid in the rear view mirror. The takeaway is that New York (and the many other places that have been and will continue to act responsibly) will beat the places that don't to the finish line. If we lower the restrictions in February (some places, of course, have jumped the gun, notwithstanding the horror they are witnessing), it is going to take the vaccine a lot longer to do its job. If we continue social distancing etc until July, we will be done. I think the way this plays out (and this is nothing new coming from me) is that New Yorkers will be substantially back to normal by the end of Summer so that we can have theatre and restaurants and the like by then. Some parts of the country, not so much. What shows, then, are we going to be producing? The ones locals will patronize.

Here's the pretty pictures: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Johnson & Johnson is expected to have their one-dose vaccine approved soon and will be able to distribute 100 million doses. Listening to Dr. Jon LaPook, he said if Biden keeps to his word and speeds things up, Broadway will be on pace to re-open by the Fall (gradually).

Also, the return of warmer weather by April will help as people won't have to be forced to stay inside all the time due to the cold. It's all a series of events that need to happen for Broadway to re-open by August/September.

Updated On: 1/24/21 at 07:56 PM

I read this NYT article a month ago and it reports the drama Pfizer and the US government had mid-late 2020 in regards to providing supplies and preordering vaccines. I know in NY state (including NYC area) there is a shortage at the moment but there *should* be more available in 2nd and 3rd quarter of the year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/us/politics/pfizer-vaccine-doses.html

The big ? right now is mutations and whether we'll need this vaccine every single year similar to the flu shot.

I agree that when Broadway reopens, it will cater to the local tri-state area market. This bodes well for Music Man revival as I know several friends here in NYC are very excited to see it.

Wick3 said: "I read this NYT article a month ago and it reports the drama Pfizer and the US government had mid-late 2020 in regards to providing supplies and preordering vaccines. I know in NY state (including NYC area) there is a shortage at the moment but there *should* be more available in 2nd and 3rd quarter of the year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/us/politics/pfizer-vaccine-doses.html

The big ? right now is mutations and whether we'll need this vaccine every single year similar to the flu shot.

I agree that when Broadway reopens, it will cater to the local tri-state area market. This bodes well for Music Man revival as I know several friends here in NYC are very excited to see it."

That article is way out of date, from back in the dark ages when we had this dude who wanted to be a dictator and failed. Now that we have someone who actually wants to save lives and run the country, we will have vaccine distribution in relatively short order.

Broadway will be back when people don't need to be told that it is safe to come back because they know it. Everyone will be vaccinated by mid year unless they are avoiding. The next issue as has been rehearsed is having enough money to come back. That's why Broadway will be dependent on the local audience for at least the 1st 6 months, probably year, maybe 2, but we will have 6 shows or so in the fall, 6 more in the spring, and then we will see. And as I have said over and over, don't expect the tourist shows to be at the front of the line, if at all.

NY (the whole state) has done a great job of keeping rates lower than a lot of other states. However, the vaccine rollout has been messy so far. Some states (believe it or not, West Virginia is perhaps on top of this list) have been handling the vaccine rollout much better than others and so far I have not been impressed with NY's handling of vaccine distribution (and yes, I live in the state and I know there are some other forces at play but it still hasn't been handled well and it's not all the fed government's fault).

That being said, between a Biden admin and more vaccines getting approved soon, I do have a lot of hope that vaccine distribution will pick up quickly everywhere.

OK here's the deal, and this is really not the place to catch everyone up on vaccines beyond just saying that it looks like there will be a handful or so of shows in the fall, which is a good thing. FYI NY has vaccinated (first dose) 5 % of the population. But that's not good enough.

Final explanation of what I mean: Biden invoked the Defense Production Act on Thursday. That means he can mobilize industry to do what needs to be done for the "war" we are waging. And that will greatly accelerate things and alter how things are done. Now people had been begging Trump to do this and guess what? He was too busy tweeting and playing games with the supply. So he has another 100k dead people on his non-existent conscience. Bottom line, what Pfizer was doing in December is irrelevant. When adults do things, they get done.

Fosse76 said: "Wick3 said: "The big ? right now is mutations and whether we'll need this vaccine every single year similar to the flu shot."

There is no real concern at this time that the vaccine will be ineffective against the new variants, though they are obviously monitoring it. There is a strain in South Africa that appears to be somewhat resistant to the vaccine, but only in those people who had previously been infected with the virus. While it is possible that a yearly shot could be necessary, there is no evidence to date that the new variants are resistant to the vaccine."

To add: we also need to distinguish between things that are of basic science, epidemiology, and medicine. These things are complicated but will sort themselves out in due course. Right now, we are on information overload that does not always filter out things of little practical concern to individuals. As an example, basic science tells us that a vaccine is ineffective 5% of the time. Epidemiologists don't really care because that's not going to sustain an epidemic, and doctors (and we) won't be concerned because, with that 5%, people will still have their symptoms blunted to the level of, say, a cold. We don't avoid the theatre when it is flu and cold season unless we are sick.

A suggestion: it's not a bad idea to devote the time we would otherwise spend at the theatre reading and learning about what's keeping us away. See you all at the theatre !!

unclevictor said: "I spoke with Patti Lupone again...

She said....

“F*ck the charts, Broadway isn’t coming back until next year.”"

Oh yeah, well I spoke to Ethel Merman, and she says "F*ck Patti Lupone, Broadway's coming back this fall!:"

and of behalf of the estate of Henriette-Rosine Bernard I beg to differ on that as well.