Does Jasmine actually have a chance?

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:05pm

It would be such a wild upset. I feel the slightest tingle in the air that the tides might be turning in her favor. Thoughts?

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:08pm

I think that for her to have a real shot the show would have to be much stronger than it was. To win a Lead Tony with your show not nominated in Musical, Book, Score or Directing is so hard that the only reason Block did it it because not really having a competition and being a theater veteran.

Had ''Gypsy'' and ''Sunset'' also being underwhelming in support it would be good for her, but especially ''Sunset'' got in for everything, has campaigning HARD and I don't think a single thing really hurted Nicole's chance because nobody actually cared about that hat.

But she is nominated so she does have 20% chance of winning.

[MB124]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:09pm

Oh, this’ll be fun. 

Of course she has a chance, but it’s very slim. It’s still very much a two horse race between Audra and Nicole.

My gut says Nicole takes it in the end. 

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:10pm

MB124 said: "My gut says Nicole takes it in the end."

 

Mine too.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:21pm

MB124 said: "Oh, this’ll be fun.

Of course she has a chance, but it’s very slim. It’s still very much a two horse race betweenAudra and Nicole.

My gut says Nicole takes it in the end."

Agreed. It’s still Nicole v. Audra and I think Nicole has the slight edge.

She is in a more beloved production overall (I think the George C. Wolfe snub is telling) and she’s campaigning her ass off, smartly reminding everyone this is her Broadway debut. 

I find it hard to see a world where Lloyd takes Best Director and the production takes Best Revival (as both seem very likely) but Nicole goes home empty-handed. 

That all said, if the Tonys have taught me anything over the years, it’s to never underestimate Audra McDonald…

It’s a nail-biter, for sure. 

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 02:21 PM

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:22pm

Part of me wants to predict her for the hell of it, on the theory that four divas may split the vote.

Nicole still feels like the frontrunner. But I think it's a much closer race than it appears.

[Ensemble1665759202]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:31pm

All I'm saying is that Jasmine could step into Nicole and Audra's roles and do what they're doing, but they couldn't step into her role and do what she's doing.

[binau]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:32pm

You think Jasmine could do what Audra is doing in Gypsy right now? ok...

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 02:32 PM

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:32pm

Audra for the win but Sunset for revival.  And there you have it. 

[Ensemble1665759202]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:34pm

binau said: "You think Jasmine could do what Audra is going in Gypsy right now? ok..."

Yes

[WldKingdomHM]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:35pm

Nicole will win. Audra is good but in a wrong Gypsy it doesn’t mesh well 

[uncageg]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:39pm

The 2004 Tony Awards keep popping into my mind with this category for some reason.

[MB124]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:40pm

Ensemble1665759202 said: "All I'm saying is that Jasmine could step into Nicole and Audra's roles and do what they're doing, but they couldn't step into her role and do what she's doing."

I’m sorry, I’ll take the bait because this is crazy and delusional. 

You think Jasmine could play Norma Desmond or Rose…? Come on. 

Not to knock the girl’s talent (she’s delightful), but get real. 

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 02:40 PM

[Auggie27]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:43pm

I'm reminded of the year Kathy Bates won the Best Actress Oscar. An upset, if minor one (not on the Colman/Close level.)  Many presumed Angelica Huston had a lock (i.e. Nicole), Joanne Woodward, old school star, in the Audra position. The general consensus was, albeit in a postmortem: Bates slipped in around votes split between Huston/Woodward and pulled ahead among the folks who decided at the very last minute. I think this could be that type of competition, but I wouldn't swear by it. 

*defeating Julia Roberts (for Pretty Woman), Meryl Streep (for Postcards From the Edge), Anjelica Huston (for The Grifters), and Joanne Woodward (for Mr. and Mrs. Bridge).

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 02:43 PM

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:52pm

Considering they have been awarding people making their Broadway debuts in the past few years (Myles Frost, Maleah Joi Moon), I absolutely think she can win. She was a stand out star from the very beginning and when people talk about that show, she seems to be the main selling point. 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:58pm

Sutton Ross said: "Considering theyhavebeen awarding people making their Broadway debuts in the past few years (Myles Frost,Maleah Joi Moon), I absolutely think she can win. She was a stand out star from the very beginning and when people talk about that show, she seems to be the main selling point."

Sadly she is not in a project as big and beloved as ''MJ'' and ''Hell's Kitchen''.

Runaway hits with 10+ noms.

[Sutton Ross]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 2:59pm

Very true. 

[MB124]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 3:02pm

Sutton Ross said: "Considering theyhavebeen awarding people making their Broadway debuts in the past few years (Myles Frost,Maleah Joi Moon), I absolutely think she can win. She was a stand out star from the very beginning and when people talk about that show, she seems to be the main selling point."

As mentioned above, it’s Nicole’s Broadway debut as well. 

And if the voters are theoretically choosing between the two debuts, the choice seems pretty clear. 

But according to some of y’all, Jasmine could lead a one-woman King Lear. So what the hell do I know? 

[gibsons2]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 3:11pm

Jasmine could be great Mrs. Lovett or Juliet in &Juliet. But to reach Nicole and Audra's level she needs more experience and yes, maturity. They command the audience like only very few actors can do. But Jasmine will get there with time.

[Alex Kulak2]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 3:22pm

Jasmine is a great performer, and she'll certainly have a Tony someday, but light from the sun has not yet reached the galaxy where she has a chance of winning in a year where the category is this stacked.

[RUkiddingme]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 4:01pm

No,

[Robbie2]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 4:06pm

We thought she was great and shines in BOOP but it's not her year! Still feel Nicole is taking the TONY!

[Robbie2]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 4:16pm

Ensemble1665759202 said: "All I'm saying is that Jasmine could step into Nicole and Audra's roles and do what they're doing, but they couldn't step into her role and do what she's doing."

LOL no way and that won't or ever happen!

[morosco]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 4:21pm

In my humble opinion I wouldn't be surprised if Jasmine wins because I think the votes for Audra/Nicole will be split.

But my gut feeling tells me Nicole will win.

[gibsons2]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 4:35pm

morosco said: "In my humble opinion I wouldn't be surprised if Jasmine wins because I think the votes for Audra/Nicole will be split.

But my gut feeling tells me Nicole will win."

As she should. Saw SB for the third time this past Sunday matinee and was blown away once again. Nicole's performance and voice are otherworldly.