Does Jasmine actually have a chance?- Page 2

[gibsons2]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 4:35pm

morosco said: "In my humble opinion I wouldn't be surprised if Jasmine wins because I think the votes for Audra/Nicole will be split.

But my gut feeling tells me Nicole will win."

As she should. Saw SB for the third time this past Sunday matinee and was blown away once again. Nicole's performance and voice are otherworldly. 

 

[inception]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 4:40pm

Last week I showed this Colbert appearance to a co-worker who doesn't follow Broadway.  She was awestruck. While I really didn't like many aspects of the direction of Sunset, the way Scherzinger throws herself into the performance is remarkable.

 

[BanjoKazooie]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 5:03pm

How do Audra and Nicole "split votes"? They both have very passionate fan bases and very few voters will be torn about which one to support. One will garner more votes than the other, while some will be most impressed by Jasmine and vote for her.

Jennifer Simard and Megan Hilty are the example of vote splitting because fans of Death Becomes Her who want to vote for that show in every category will have to make a decision between the two; thus the amount of votes that Simard and Hilty receive individually will be lower than the tally if all DBH fans only had one choice to vote for in Best Actress. Even if Simard was nominated solo here, I don't think it would be enough to overcome McDonald or Scherzinger.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 5:26pm

If I had a nickel for every single time someone talk about ''vote split' that would allow Jasmine to win...

Like, aside from being in revivals, there is NOTHING that can compare Nicole to Audra.

Audra is a veteran of stage with 6 Tonys doing a classic musical that has been done many times in a normal way.

Nicole is a known singer doing her Broadway debut on a 100% revisitation of a not beloved musical that was built 100% around her.

How they split the votes???

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 05:26 PM

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 5:33pm

Do people need to Google what split the vote means?

[morosco]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 5:43pm

Do people need to Google what split the vote means?

I can help...

Vote splitting is an electoral effect in which the distribution of votes among multiple similar candidates reduces the chance of winning for any of the similar candidates, and increases the chance of winning for a dissimilar candidate.

[MB124]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 5:51pm

morosco said: "Do people need to Google what split the vote means?

I can help...

Vote splittingis anelectoraleffect in which the distribution of votes among multiple similar candidates reduces the chance of winning for any of the similar candidates, and increases the chance of winning for a dissimilar candidate."

Thank you. The “vote split” theory has nothing to do with voters being torn about whether to vote for Audra or Nicole. 

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 05:51 PM

[singer234]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 6:18pm

This is what confuses me about the whole vote splitting convo-in order for Jasmine to win, enough people still have to choose her over both Audra AND Nicole. Right? Even if they split Audra and Nicole 50/50, would enough people have voted for Jasmine and neither of the other two front runners to make a difference?

[mrshowbiz90210]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 6:42pm

I smell an upset with Jasmine walking away empty handed. It is Nicole's year. She was a showstopper!!!    

[SmokeyLady]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 6:47pm

mrshowbiz90210 said: "I smell an upset with Jasmine walking away empty handed. It is Nicole's year. She was a showstopper!!!"

How is this a upset if it is what everyone expects to happen?

[Kad]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 8:07pm

singer234 said: "This is what confuses me about the whole vote splitting convo-in order for Jasmine to win, enough people still have to choose her over both Audra AND Nicole. Right? Even if they split Audra and Nicole 50/50, would enough people have voted for Jasmine and neither of the other two front runners to make a difference?"

That is correct and that's what makes me far less bullish on the idea of a Jasmine upset. It just doesn't seem likely to me that she would garner more votes than either Audra or Nicole each will get.

I don't really buy the "vote split" argument because it appears to presume there is one bloc of voters who both Audra and Nicole are each vying for, and that bloc's size and power is diminished by having to choose between them. But they're entirely different performers giving very different performances in very different productions of very different shows. Are they really competing for the same group of voters? Or is this simply a multi-competitor race?

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 8:34pm

If I were to assign percentages for likelihood, I would go:

Nicole 50%

Audra 40%

Jasmine 8%

Jen 2%

Megan <1%

[yyys]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 8:57pm

It's Jasmine's consolation prize. Voters knew Boop was garbage but they didn't overlook Jasmine's performance.

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 08:57 PM

[kdogg36]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 9:09pm

TotallyEffed said: "Do people need to Google what split the vote means?"

I know what it means when there are two nominees for Death Becomes Her, or three for featured actress for Fun Home. But I don't know what it means here. What's the natural class of voters who would vote for either Scherzinger or McDonald but not Rogers? 

I'm not saying Rogers can't win; I'm just saying that if she does, it's because she attracted more supporters than the others. Not that some theoretical "vote" was "split."