Does Jasmine actually have a chance? — Page 2

morosco said: "In my humble opinion I wouldn't be surprised if Jasmine wins because I think the votes for Audra/Nicole will be split.

But my gut feeling tells me Nicole will win."

As she should. Saw SB for the third time this past Sunday matinee and was blown away once again. Nicole's performance and voice are otherworldly.

How do Audra and Nicole "split votes"? They both have very passionate fan bases and very few voters will be torn about which one to support. One will garner more votes than the other, while some will be most impressed by Jasmine and vote for her.

Jennifer Simard and Megan Hilty are the example of vote splitting because fans of Death Becomes Her who want to vote for that show in every category will have to make a decision between the two; thus the amount of votes that Simard and Hilty receive individually will be lower than the tally if all DBH fans only had one choice to vote for in Best Actress. Even if Simard was nominated solo here, I don't think it would be enough to overcome McDonald or Scherzinger.

Do people need to Google what split the vote means?

morosco said: "Do people need to Google what split the vote means?

I can help...

Vote splittingis anelectoraleffect in which the distribution of votes among multiple similar candidates reduces the chance of winning for any of the similar candidates, and increases the chance of winning for a dissimilar candidate."

Thank you. The “vote split” theory has nothing to do with voters being torn about whether to vote for Audra or Nicole.

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 05:51 PM

I smell an upset with Jasmine walking away empty handed. It is Nicole's year. She was a showstopper!!!

singer234 said: "This is what confuses me about the whole vote splitting convo-in order for Jasmine to win, enough people still have to choose her over both Audra AND Nicole. Right? Even if they split Audra and Nicole 50/50, would enough people have voted for Jasmine and neither of the other two front runners to make a difference?"

That is correct and that's what makes me far less bullish on the idea of a Jasmine upset. It just doesn't seem likely to me that she would garner more votes than either Audra or Nicole each will get.

I don't really buy the "vote split" argument because it appears to presume there is one bloc of voters who both Audra and Nicole are each vying for, and that bloc's size and power is diminished by having to choose between them. But they're entirely different performers giving very different performances in very different productions of very different shows. Are they really competing for the same group of voters? Or is this simply a multi-competitor race?

It's Jasmine's consolation prize. Voters knew Boop was garbage but they didn't overlook Jasmine's performance.

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 08:57 PM

Although Jasmine is super talented, and it would make me really happy if she won, I don't think she will, simply because both Audra and Nicole have much larger fan bases, while this is Jasmine's debut. I definitely see a tony award in her future though

WiCkEDrOcKS said: "I find it hard to see a world where Lloyd takes Best Director and the production takes Best Revival (as both seem very likely) but Nicole goes home empty-handed.

That all said, if the Tonys have taught me anything over the years, it’s to never underestimate Audra McDonald…

It’s a nail-biter, for sure."

I completely agree that Sunset seems poised to take Best Revival, but I really thought that Michael Arden had the edge on Director. In either case, Actress is Nicole's, and I really can't see a scenario where that isn't the reality.

MadsonMelo said: "If I had a nickel for every single time someone talk about ''vote split' that would allow Jasmine to win...

Like, aside from being in revivals, there is NOTHING that can compare Nicole to Audra."

Okay, I don't necessarily think it will happen, but anyone completely dismissing Rogers's chances or thinking there's no way McDonald and Scherzinger can split any kind of vote are understimating her/overestimating them.

Yes, you can compare Nicole and Audra. They're both playing in the same lane: women in show business who have nervous breakdowns. Both mostly dramatic performances with a few lighter moments. They both finish their shows flailing and wailing about the stage, revealing their fundamental delusions. If your idea of great acting is minimal dancing and capital-d DRAMA, then you have two options.

For voters who appreciate a lead actress in a musical with incredibly strong singing AND dancing, who's entertaining and joyful in the classic sense of what a "musical comedy" can be, then Rogers would be a strong choice, especially for those who can't choose between Hilty/Simard.

I'm not necessarily advocating for her (though I'd increasingly be delighted to see her win if only to see both the insufferable Audra stans and the insufferable Nicole stans infuriated), but to say Nicole and Audra can't be compared or there isn't a lane for someone else is not true.

In the 1950 Oscar race when Gloria Swanson and Bette Davis were the supposed frontrunners, Judy Holliday won it for a primarily comedic role. And Scherzinger and McDonald have a lot more in common with Swanson (the same part, natch) and Davis (acid-tongued woman finding herself eclipsed in show business?) than folks here seem to want to admit.

MemorableUserName said: "In the 1950 Oscar race when Gloria Swanson and Bette Davis were the supposed frontrunners, Judy Holliday won it for a primarily comedic role. And Scherzinger and McDonald have a lot more in common with Swanson (the same part, natch) and Davis (acid-tongued woman finding herself eclipsed in show business?) than folks here seem to want to admit."

But you are leaving out a massive factor in that scenario. An actual vote-splitter - Anne Baxter as Eve from All About Eve. As magnificent and iconic as Better Davis's Margo Channing is, she disappears for the last 1/4 of the movie. All About Eve is actually all about the character of Eve. Anyone involved with the film who were eligible to vote (from the leaders of the studio down) would have to choose which of the two to support. Davis was furious that Baxter campaigned for lead and got the nomination in that category because she knew Baxter would siphon off votes from her.

MemorableUserName said: "Yes, you can compare Nicole and Audra. They're both playing in the same lane:women in show business who have nervous breakdowns. Both mostly dramatic performances with a few lighter moments. They both finish their shows flailing and wailing about the stage, revealing their fundamental delusions. If your idea of great acting is minimal dancing and capital-d DRAMA, then you have two options."

I understand your point, but I don't believe this is really how Tony voters think or cast their ballots. When they sit down to vote, they're not compartmentalizing performers according to the show's genre or some arbitrary similarities between roles such as nervous breakdowns and lack of dancing. They'll be voting for who they liked best, and that's inherently a gut decision. It's also an imprecise way to predict the Tonys because there are infinite ways to conceptually divvy up the voting pool, including Sondheim fans versus Webber fans, which I'd wager are very polarized groups. It's much more likely someone sits down and says, "Sunset Blvd was the most brilliant production I've seen in years and I'm voting for it in every category," rather than, "Hmm, which dramatic performance in a musical revival that featured minimal choreography and delusional characters appealed to me more because I like seeing dark depictions of neuroses on stage?" The directorial approaches to Gypsy and Sunset could not be more distinct, in any case.