Does Jasmine actually have a chance?- Page 2

[gibsons2]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 4:35pm

morosco said: "In my humble opinion I wouldn't be surprised if Jasmine wins because I think the votes for Audra/Nicole will be split.

But my gut feeling tells me Nicole will win."

As she should. Saw SB for the third time this past Sunday matinee and was blown away once again. Nicole's performance and voice are otherworldly. 

 

[inception]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 4:40pm

Last week I showed this Colbert appearance to a co-worker who doesn't follow Broadway.  She was awestruck. While I really didn't like many aspects of the direction of Sunset, the way Scherzinger throws herself into the performance is remarkable.

 

[BanjoKazooie]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 5:03pm

How do Audra and Nicole "split votes"? They both have very passionate fan bases and very few voters will be torn about which one to support. One will garner more votes than the other, while some will be most impressed by Jasmine and vote for her.

Jennifer Simard and Megan Hilty are the example of vote splitting because fans of Death Becomes Her who want to vote for that show in every category will have to make a decision between the two; thus the amount of votes that Simard and Hilty receive individually will be lower than the tally if all DBH fans only had one choice to vote for in Best Actress. Even if Simard was nominated solo here, I don't think it would be enough to overcome McDonald or Scherzinger.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 5:26pm

If I had a nickel for every single time someone talk about ''vote split' that would allow Jasmine to win...

Like, aside from being in revivals, there is NOTHING that can compare Nicole to Audra.

Audra is a veteran of stage with 6 Tonys doing a classic musical that has been done many times in a normal way.

Nicole is a known singer doing her Broadway debut on a 100% revisitation of a not beloved musical that was built 100% around her.

How they split the votes???

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 05:26 PM

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 5:33pm

Do people need to Google what split the vote means?

[morosco]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 5:43pm

Do people need to Google what split the vote means?

I can help...

Vote splitting is an electoral effect in which the distribution of votes among multiple similar candidates reduces the chance of winning for any of the similar candidates, and increases the chance of winning for a dissimilar candidate.

[MB124]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 5:51pm

morosco said: "Do people need to Google what split the vote means?

I can help...

Vote splittingis anelectoraleffect in which the distribution of votes among multiple similar candidates reduces the chance of winning for any of the similar candidates, and increases the chance of winning for a dissimilar candidate."

Thank you. The “vote split” theory has nothing to do with voters being torn about whether to vote for Audra or Nicole. 

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 05:51 PM

[singer234]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 6:18pm

This is what confuses me about the whole vote splitting convo-in order for Jasmine to win, enough people still have to choose her over both Audra AND Nicole. Right? Even if they split Audra and Nicole 50/50, would enough people have voted for Jasmine and neither of the other two front runners to make a difference?

[mrshowbiz90210]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 6:42pm

I smell an upset with Jasmine walking away empty handed. It is Nicole's year. She was a showstopper!!!    

[SmokeyLady]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 6:47pm

mrshowbiz90210 said: "I smell an upset with Jasmine walking away empty handed. It is Nicole's year. She was a showstopper!!!"

How is this a upset if it is what everyone expects to happen?

[Kad]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 8:07pm

singer234 said: "This is what confuses me about the whole vote splitting convo-in order for Jasmine to win, enough people still have to choose her over both Audra AND Nicole. Right? Even if they split Audra and Nicole 50/50, would enough people have voted for Jasmine and neither of the other two front runners to make a difference?"

That is correct and that's what makes me far less bullish on the idea of a Jasmine upset. It just doesn't seem likely to me that she would garner more votes than either Audra or Nicole each will get.

I don't really buy the "vote split" argument because it appears to presume there is one bloc of voters who both Audra and Nicole are each vying for, and that bloc's size and power is diminished by having to choose between them. But they're entirely different performers giving very different performances in very different productions of very different shows. Are they really competing for the same group of voters? Or is this simply a multi-competitor race?

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 8:34pm

If I were to assign percentages for likelihood, I would go:

Nicole 50%

Audra 40%

Jasmine 8%

Jen 2%

Megan <1%

[yyys]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 8:57pm

It's Jasmine's consolation prize. Voters knew Boop was garbage but they didn't overlook Jasmine's performance.

Updated On: 5/13/25 at 08:57 PM

[kdogg36]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 9:09pm

TotallyEffed said: "Do people need to Google what split the vote means?"

I know what it means when there are two nominees for Death Becomes Her, or three for featured actress for Fun Home. But I don't know what it means here. What's the natural class of voters who would vote for either Scherzinger or McDonald but not Rogers? 

I'm not saying Rogers can't win; I'm just saying that if she does, it's because she attracted more supporters than the others. Not that some theoretical "vote" was "split."

 

[fray3]

Posted: 5/13/25 at 10:12pm

Although Jasmine is super talented, and it would make me really happy if she won, I don't think she will, simply because both Audra and Nicole have much larger fan bases, while this is Jasmine's debut. I definitely see a tony award in her future though

[mrshowbiz90210]

Posted: 5/14/25 at 8:00am

Huss and I so agree with you!! 

[TheGingerBreadMan]

Posted: 5/14/25 at 8:32am

WiCkEDrOcKS said: "I find it hard to see a world where Lloyd takes Best Director and the production takes Best Revival (as both seem very likely) but Nicole goes home empty-handed.

That all said, if the Tonys have taught me anything over the years, it’s to never underestimate Audra McDonald…

It’s a nail-biter, for sure."

I completely agree that Sunset seems poised to take Best Revival, but I really thought that Michael Arden had the edge on Director. In either case, Actress is Nicole's, and I really can't see a scenario where that isn't the reality.

[trentsketch]

Posted: 5/14/25 at 8:47am

This would be a huge surprise at this point. Jasmine is fantastic in a show that the Tony nominators just didn't take to. 

The likely winner is either Nicole or Audra.

A more realistic surprise is Jennifer or Megan sneaking in since Death Becomes Her is so well liked. However, that's a clear two-hander of a show while Audra and Nicole are clearly THE star of their productions.

This really does not feel like the year for a surprise in this category.

Best Musical? Perhaps. Any of those nominees feel like a potential winner. But here? It's likely Audra or Nicole. Nicole is having her star is born moment in a well received show.

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 5/14/25 at 9:30am

MadsonMelo said: "If I had a nickel for every single time someone talk about ''vote split' that would allow Jasmine to win...

Like, aside from being in revivals, there is NOTHING that can compare Nicole to Audra."

Okay, I don't necessarily think it will happen, but anyone completely dismissing Rogers's chances or thinking there's  no way McDonald and Scherzinger can split any kind of vote are understimating her/overestimating them.

Yes, you can compare Nicole and Audra. They're both playing in the same lane: women in show business who have nervous breakdowns. Both mostly dramatic performances with a few lighter moments. They both finish their shows flailing and wailing about the stage, revealing their fundamental delusions. If your idea of great acting is minimal dancing and capital-d DRAMA, then you have two options.

For voters who appreciate a lead actress in a musical with incredibly strong singing AND dancing, who's entertaining and joyful in the classic sense of what a "musical comedy" can be, then Rogers would be a strong choice, especially for those who can't choose between Hilty/Simard.

I'm not necessarily advocating for her (though I'd increasingly be delighted to see her win if only to see both the insufferable Audra stans and the insufferable Nicole stans infuriated), but to say Nicole and Audra can't be compared or there isn't a lane for someone else is not true.

In the 1950 Oscar race when Gloria Swanson and Bette Davis were the supposed frontrunners, Judy Holliday won it for a primarily comedic role. And Scherzinger and McDonald have a lot more in common with Swanson (the same part, natch) and Davis (acid-tongued woman finding herself eclipsed in show business?) than folks here seem to want to admit.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 5/14/25 at 10:16am

MemorableUserName said: "MadsonMelo said: "If I had a nickel for every single time someone talk about ''vote split' that would allow Jasmine to win...

Like, aside from being in revivals, there is NOTHING that can compare Nicole to Audra."

Okay,I don't necessarily think it will happen, but anyone completely dismissing Rogers's chancesor thinking there's noway McDonald and Scherzingercan split any kind of voteare understimating her/overestimating them.

Yes, you can compare Nicole and Audra. They're both playing in the same lane:women in show business who have nervous breakdowns. Both mostly dramatic performances with a few lighter moments. They both finish their shows flailing and wailing about the stage, revealing their fundamental delusions. If your idea of great acting is minimal dancing and capital-d DRAMA, then you have two options.

For voters who appreciate a lead actress in a musical with incredibly strong singing AND dancing, who's entertaining and joyful in the classic sense of what a "musical comedy" can be, then Rogers would be a strong choice, especially for those who can't choose between Hilty/Simard.

I'm not necessarily advocating for her (though I'd increasingly be delighted to see her win if only to see both the insufferable Audra stans and the insufferable Nicole stans infuriated), but to say Nicole and Audra can't be compared or there isn't a lane for someone else is not true.

In the 1950 Oscar race when Gloria Swanson and Bette Davis were the supposed frontrunners, Judy Holliday won it for a primarily comedic role. And Scherzinger and McDonald have a lot more in common with Swanson (the same part, natch) and Davis (acid-tongued woman finding herself eclipsed in show business?) than folks here seem to want to admit."

Let's remember tho that ''Born Yesterday'' was a major hit (bigger than ''Eve'' and ''Sunset'') that had a huge support (nominated for BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR), two factors that Jasmine doesn't have.

Also, the Oscars for Best Actress absolutely loves newbies, something that the Tonys don't necessarily do.

And again: Gloria Swanson and Bette Davis were veterans, Nicole is a industry veteran but she is doing her Broadway debut.

I will say that the fact that Jasmine's performance is more comedy&dance is something to talk regarding Nicole and Audra, but I wouldn't say that Nicole is 100% a dramatic performance in the same way that Audra is.

[SonofRobbieJ]

Posted: 5/14/25 at 10:16am

MemorableUserName said: "In the 1950 Oscar race when Gloria Swanson and Bette Davis were the supposed frontrunners, Judy Holliday won it for a primarily comedic role. And Scherzinger and McDonald have a lot more in common with Swanson (the same part, natch) and Davis (acid-tongued woman finding herself eclipsed in show business?) than folks here seem to want to admit."

But you are leaving out a massive factor in that scenario. An actual vote-splitter - Anne Baxter as Eve from All About Eve. As magnificent and iconic as Better Davis's Margo Channing is, she disappears for the last 1/4 of the movie. All About Eve is actually all about the character of Eve. Anyone involved with the film who were eligible to vote (from the leaders of the studio down) would have to choose which of the two to support. Davis was furious that Baxter campaigned for lead and got the nomination in that category because she knew Baxter would siphon off votes from her.

 

[trentsketch]

Posted: 5/14/25 at 11:48am

And you also can't forget how many people in Hollywood actively disliked Bette Davis as a person. It had a greater direct impact on her Baby Jane campaign, but every vote counts in a close race and she already had a reputation by All About Eve.

[MB124]

Posted: 5/14/25 at 11:56am

It was also 1950’s Hollywood…

The 2025 Broadway landscape is not an apples-to-apples comparison. 

[DrMonicaDeMoneco]

Posted: 5/14/25 at 12:06pm

Jasmine has no chance. The award will go to pro trumper Nicole Scherzinger.

[BanjoKazooie]

Posted: 5/14/25 at 12:10pm

MemorableUserName said: "Yes, you can compare Nicole and Audra. They're both playing in the same lane:women in show business who have nervous breakdowns. Both mostly dramatic performances with a few lighter moments. They both finish their shows flailing and wailing about the stage, revealing their fundamental delusions. If your idea of great acting is minimal dancing and capital-d DRAMA, then you have two options."

I understand your point, but I don't believe this is really how Tony voters think or cast their ballots. When they sit down to vote, they're not compartmentalizing performers according to the show's genre or some arbitrary similarities between roles such as nervous breakdowns and lack of dancing. They'll be voting for who they liked best, and that's inherently a gut decision. It's also an imprecise way to predict the Tonys because there are infinite ways to conceptually divvy up the voting pool, including Sondheim fans versus Webber fans, which I'd wager are very polarized groups. It's much more likely someone sits down and says, "Sunset Blvd was the most brilliant production I've seen in years and I'm voting for it in every category," rather than, "Hmm, which dramatic performance in a musical revival that featured minimal choreography and delusional characters appealed to me more because I like seeing dark depictions of neuroses on stage?" The directorial approaches to Gypsy and Sunset could not be more distinct, in any case.