I (sadly) agree that the GUIDE ladies aren't likely to muster singular support for either to crack the field. I hope they can! But it's politically unlikely.
For the record, re: AFTER MIDNIGHT, I remembered much more about Adriane Lenox than Fantasia from when I saw it. For what it's worth. Though really I'm hoping Jared Grimes can squeeze out a Featured Actor nom even if he'd be near 0% to win.
Also, if BEAUTIFUL becomes the de facto minimally-acceptable frontrunner I wouldn't count out Anika Larsen from getting a nod.
Words don't deserve that kind of malarkey. They're innocent, neutral, precise, standing for this, describing that, meaning the other, so if you look after them you can build bridges across incomprehension and chaos. But when they get their corners knocked off, they're no good anymore…I don't think writers are sacred, but words are. They deserve respect. If you get the right ones in the right order, you can nudge the world a little.