Fall openings trend? Coincidence or theatre owner coercion?

[binau]

Posted: 12/15/24 at 9:00am

I could be reading too much into this and it's simply due to other factors such as the schedule of creative team/cast etc. but I have been surprised recently at some show openings that don't confirm to the conventional wisdom of opening in the spring....for example Kimberly Akimbo, Swept Away, Maybe Happy Ending etc. are all shows that I would never have expected to open when they did. And now the rumour also looking that next to normal revival looking at opening at a similar time? 

Is it possible due to lack of theatre availability and in an effort to secure their place, producers with risky shows are now somewhat forced to consider opening earlier in the year? From a theatre owner perspective, if there is a long line of potential tenants (my understanding is that this is one of the key issues with Broadway producing) for spring they can pick and choose. However, if they can find a show to open in an undesirable time they'd probably sign them up rather than leave the theatre empty and then how it progresses is a win/win for the theatre owner - let them continue making money well into the spring/summer if things turn out well or if they fail they get a new tenant anyway. 

If these risky shows would prefer to wait until the Spring, the theatre owner might choose a less risky choice waiting in line. Of course, this also creates an unfortunate vicious cycle where risky shows are even less likely to succeed than they did.

Is this a crazy conspiracy or could this be happening? 

 

Updated On: 12/15/24 at 09:00 AM

[Kad]

Posted: 12/15/24 at 9:16am

It’s not really a “conspiracy,” it’s a matter of extremely limited real estate and the fact that most productions would largely rather open in the spring. But if you’re waiting for open theaters in only a window of a few months, then  few productions are going to be opening at all each season. And theater owners need something in their venues, whether it’s one very successful show or 3 flops in a season- they get their rent regardless. The house always wins.

Updated On: 12/15/24 at 09:16 AM

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 12/15/24 at 9:16am

Artist availability (director, authors, stars, etc) and theatre availability are the big factors.

Also keep in mind, 6 of the past 10 Best Musical winners opened in the fall or summer: KIMBERLY, MOULIN (big asterisk here), BAND'S VISIT, EVAN HANSEN, HAMILTON, GENT'S GUIDE. For some producers, they view it as a strategic thing to open earlier in the season when there's not the glut of shows in April. Others have a level of hubris, where they say "if those 6 shows can all sustain sales to spring and win Best Musical, OUR show can do the same." Not every show can open in the spring.

I think there's a very real possibility that something like HERE LIES LOVE would have had a better awards run and maybe caught on with buyers had it opened in March or April instead of July. That's probably one of the things attracting whoever is putting up extra funds to keep MAYBE HAPPY ENDING going: if it closes, it doesn't have a prayer of winning Best Musical.

It appears that where Shubert IS having a big influence is the pre-Christmas closings, which allows spring shows to open a little earlier and hopefully we won't have so much late-April madness like last year. I'm sure WFE and Notebook and others would have loved to play through Dec 29 or Jan 5.

[Islander_fan]

Posted: 12/15/24 at 12:06pm

The thing about The Notebook is that the onstage pool is bigger than most people realize. Furthermore, it had caused some water damage that needed to be addressed as well. Between those two things, it’s not a simple run of the mill load out. That is why they are closing this early to make sure that things are fixed. My honest guess is that if the pool wasn’t there, they may have been able to have a little more time on Broadway before they closed. But, that is not the case. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 12/15/24 at 12:54pm

The pool may well be a factor, but BVSC is also beginning previews Feb 21. I don't know if this is a chicken vs. egg situation (Saheem Ali and Justin Peck have busy schedules). If Notebook had closed Jan 5, it would be challenging for a show to begin previews in the month of February. 8 weeks between engagements offers a buffer in case something goes wrong.

One other issue with last spring's April madness was the lack of studio rehearsal space and strain on service providers. Not just for Broadway shows, but workshops, and regionals, and Off-Bway companies that don't own space. It put a strain on the whole industry, and very few shows benefited from it.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 12/16/24 at 5:17pm

There was an article (I wanna say from Adam Feldman but I can't find it now) actually looking at trends of when the Best Musical winners opened, and contrary to conventional wisdom, there wasn't necessarily an overwhelming correlation to opening later in the season.  Opening in the spring is a little "less risky" because you wouldn't have to run as long to make it to the Tonys (and can also cut out the slow months of January/February), but sometimes opening in the fall can help build momentum and it's generally a less crowded playing field so it's easier to be seen as a highlight instead of just one of the multitude of shows opening in April.

I do think most of it ends up coming down to theater availability though, along with cast/creatives etc.  It's probably a whole big jigsaw puzzle that's crazy to put together.

[OhHiii]

Posted: 12/16/24 at 5:24pm

Yeah it's all to do with when your number gets called, you had better take it or risk losing your shot at all because new, more valuable to the owners shows will usurp your place in line if you say no when offered. That said, there are obviously exceptions for high-wattage star availabilities and sure-fire hits that have buzz coming in. 

It's also true that the owners will say yes to shows they know don't stand a chance because they need to keep the real estate moving. It's not nefarious, it's just saying yes to a tenant. Like Kaz said, the rent gets deposited regardless. This is a tactic they'll sometimes use if they know a show needs to hold out for Spring. They'll pre-program a limited run, or a show they know ain't gonna cut it for the Fall. Hence the talk about Dead Outlaw circling the Belasco and those plans seemingly changing now.