I think GLORY DAYS could still sneak up and shake things up in the Best Musical race category, leaving A CATERED AFFAIR--which I feel is the LOVEMUSIK of this season and not the GREY GARDENS of the season as most people insist--or XANADU out.
Also, I believe there is a lead actor in GLORY DAYS, so that may also jeopardize the chances of someone like Wopat (I keep reading he is heavily underused throughout the show until his big song in act II) or even Jackson (though I feel it is his time to get a Tony nod) getting a nomination.
I'm also surprised so many people think Megan Mullally will get a nomination, I love her on the cast recording, but the critics weren't particularly kind to her. I feel Andrea Martin and Christopher Fitzgerald are the only chances the show has in terms of Tony nods.
Good points, Ray.
I feel like CATERED AFFAIR would get the boot before XANADU.
I think the fact that GLORY DAYS is an original musical gives it an upper hand over a movie-to-musical adaptation, so I'm betting that unless it is devoured by critics, it will land a Best Musical nomination.
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/21/07
I strongly disagree about miss Scott's performance in Mermaid. It was a fresh new take on the role and I found her to be the strongest part of the show. I believe her acting/singing/comedic timing were spot on. At the very least, Sherie will get nominated. I seem to recall hearing that Rebecca Luker didn't have a chance to get a nomination last year and she did. I still even find it possible for Mermaid to sneak in and receive a Best Musical nomination; it would be Mary Poppins this year.
I don't think YF will be nominated for Best Musical.
Christopher Fitzgerald and Andrea Martin will probably be nominated, Fitzgerald might actually win.
Megan Mullally is a dark horse nomination for Actress(but certainly won't win).
In the Heights
Xanadu
Passing Strange
Glory Days
The above will probably be nominated for musical. I can see either YF or Little Mermaid bumping in somehow (probably kicking out Passing Strange or Glory Days) but it's not likely.
In the Heights will most certainly take Best Musical.
Other than probably choreography for Stroman, I think YF has very limited Tony chances for nominations.
Understudy Joined: 2/12/08
I just saw YF for the first time this past week, along with several other shows, because I am a big fan of Ms. Foster's. However, I have to say that except for some public high school and community theatre productions, it was the most unenjoyable experience I have ever had at the theatre. Sutton Foster's entire role was singing two less-than-mediocre songs, and then standing there in the background for the rest of the show. It put so much money into the sets, lighting, and special effects, that clearly they ran out of money (or time?) to make a decent show. I felt like everyone's talent was wasted. And really, Roger Bart was completely boring to watch. I felt myself checking the time every 5 minutes.
Christopher Fitzgerald was great though. But unless they change the Best Featured Actor Tony to "Best Imitation of Marty Feldman", he may not get it.
FutureAladdinOnB'Way, the only reason MARY POPPINS was nominated for Best Musical last year was because the only other options were LEGALLY BLONDE, which would have won undeservedly, due to the road voters wanting to make cash off of it, and LOVEMUSIK, which was crap. So by default, the nomination went to POPPINS.
This season is filled to the brim with GOOD new musicals. MERMAID was panned across the board. Who do you think would get bumped out in order to make room for the most panned show of the season?
Certainly not PASSING STRANGE, which received the most rave reviews of the season.
Understudy Joined: 2/12/08
Foster-
Remind me again, what is a road voter?
It's a Tony voter who owns a touring house anywhere across the country.
They make up about 15% of Tony voters.
They tend to vote for the movie-to-musical, well-known name shows for Best Musical, so when the show comes to their touring house, they can advertise it as "Winner! Best Musical!" and pull more people into their theatre, sell more tickets, and make more money.
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/21/07
Definitely not Passing Strange. I've heard nothing but great things about that show from those who have seen it; I feel that In The Heights and Passing Strange are locks. That leaves two slots left: Xanadu received raves across the board so it would appear that it would take one of the two slots; it could be overlooked, but I find that doubtful. Neither A Catered Affair, Cry-Baby, or Glory Days have officially opened so we'll have to wait and see how they are reviewed; I haven't heard too many good things about A Cattered Affair or Cry-Baby though since their out of town runs. I'm just saying I wouldn't find it as a complete shock if Mermaid were to sneak in as the 4th slot.
and LOVEMUSIK, which was crap
That made me sad, Foster. The show was incredibly disjointed, very polarizing, and had some songs that needed not to be there but overall I thought it had some brilliant moments provided by the three brilliant leads (I will never get over Murphy's haunting "September Song" or her scene with Cerveris when she realizes he is leaving her, nor will I get over Pittu's perfect Brecht). I do know a lot of people were disappointed which is why I think A CATERED AFFAIR bears a bigger resemblance to this show than GREY GARDENS.
I do agree that unless GLORY DAYS gets LESTAT kind of reviews, it is likely to get nominated for Best Musical. I definitely think it would trump A CATERED AFFAIR before trumping XANADU (the little show that could from this season).
Ray, perhaps I was being too harsh by labeling LOVEMUSIK crap. As with most every artistically failed production, the people who are least to blame are the performers. Donna Murphy gave a gorgeous, immensely memorable performance in LOVEMUSIK. Michael Cerveris and David Pittu were very good too. But it didn't seem like a musical to me. It just felt like three strong actors giving powerfully acted interpretations of songs and characters, but with nothing around them to justify the existence of their performances. I had higher standards for a new piece directed by the great Harold Prince with a new book by the strongly talented Alfred Uhry who gave us PARADE, and overall, I found the evening to be long and dull. It felt mostly incomplete, and messily cut and paste together. It deserved the four Tony nominations it received, but there was no way it was even close to deserving of a Best Musical nomination.
Ok, do the Outer Circle noms change anything for anyone? Is YF going to surprise us all?
Broadway Legend Joined: 2/20/04
Four at the most - Sets, Lighting, Featured Actor (Fitzgerald), Featured Actress (Martin).
No, devonian.t- the OCC awards mean about as much as a rave review from "Word of Mouth" on Broadway.com.
I agree with Jon- four? Maybe five- choreography, even though it was flaccid.
I say five:
Featured Actor - Christopher Fitzgerald
Featured Actress - Andrea Martin
Choreography
Set Design
Lighting Design
I can't see YF getting more than four or five. I think Brooks and Co. can forget about noms for Best Musical, Score and Book.
I still can't believe they got as many OCC noms as they did.
I think it will be up for all the design awards. Costume designer William Ivey Long ALWAYS gets nominated and usually wins! Certainly Sets, Lights, Costumes.
Its gonna get a lot of nominations.
I think so, anyway.
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