In Patti's favor: She's been getting raves for "the role she was born to play", she improved her performance significantly from Encores!, she hasn't won a Tony since EVITA.
Against Patti: Two Rose's (Angela Lansbury and Tyne Daly) have won in the past, it might not be felt that Patti brings enough to the Rose table, she's been somewhat overshadowed by her co-stars (especially Benanti).
My opinion: It's going to be a very very close race between Patti and Faith Prince, who has nothing but good word-of-mouth for A CATERED AFFAIR.
"Y'know, I think Bertolt Brecht was rolling in his grave."
-Nellie McKay on the 2006 Broadway production of The Threepenny Opera, in which she played Polly Peachum