Tonya Pinkin's reviews for CAROLINE, OR CHANGE were not nearly what LuPone's reviews were like. Most critics were rather dismissive of CAROLINE, OR CHANGE even if Pinkins' performance was just exhilarating and heart-breaking. Of course she deserved the Tony but oh well. Menzel was the worst-reviewed out of all the nominees (Chenoweth stole all the reviews from her when WICKED opened, who could forget Brantley's love letter to the blond girl?).
Donna Murphy was the only one that season that got reviews comparable to LuPone's, with every critic being incredibly surprised not only by Murphy's incredible comedic skills but by the improvement she had done from her much-acclaimed performance at Encores! (sounds familiar?). The bad press she got during the WONDERFUL TOWN run is rumored to be the reason she was denied the award, but she did win every award leading up to the Tonys.
What will land LuPone the award is more than the reviews, it has a lot to do with the status that she has given to this revival, the fact that people really do think that this is the role she was born to play, the fact she apparently has been very nice to her co-stars, and the fact that audiences are genuinely moved and haunted by her performance. I'll give it to LuPone, she has done what Peters never did (and I am one of the few who will listen to Peters any day before LuPone), which is convince everyone that this is her role and that she is the definite Rose. Unless a big surprise comes along, June 15th will be her night.
"Some people can thrive and bloom living life in a living room, that's perfect for some people of one hundred and five. But I at least gotta try, when I think of all the sights that I gotta see, all the places I gotta play, all the things that I gotta be at"