Based on the impact she has, I could see them putting her forward as Lead Actress with a straight face, but given this year's crop of performances, she has a much better shot in Featured.
The Ferryman is really an ensemble piece, and while all great, none stood out to me particularly. I agree that Joan Allen could provide some competition- she really was incredible- but she didn't life that production, Elaine May did. Here, Celia's performance rivals, if not outshines, Daniels, and the reviews seemed to indicate the same. I'd be surprised if she didnt take it.