NY Times Tony Predictions Are Up- Page 3

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 9:02pm

If ONCE doesn't win best musical, I really don't see the tour ever materializing.

Why? Just the past few seasons, we've seen tours of Young Frankenstein, Xanadu, Next to Normal, American Idiot, Fela, Million Dollar Quartet, Rock of Ages, Mary Poppins, 9 to 5, Shrek, Wicked, Mamma Mia, Legally Blonde, Drowsy Chaperone, Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, Light in the Piazza...

Sister Act is already booking and I believe Priscilla is on the way. Shows that have not won Best Musical, not been nominated for Best Musical, and not had lengthy Broadway runs have managed to tour. Even smaller shows. Given the reviews and should sales continue to hold, I can't imagine Once not touring. And Nice Work is exactly the type of show that tours well, especially with a "name" that attracts the subscribers of the top markets.

[LaCageAuxFollesFan]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 9:02pm

Have you seen Venus In Fur? Yes, Nina Arianda - even with some pretty strong competition flying at her from every other nominee - will have the support behind her to win, imo. Especially if they invited the Tony voters back to see it. I just revisited the show after seeing it in the fall and if you rewatch the performance, it's virtually impossible to get out of your mind. And I'm with Charles Isherwood - Hugh Dancy and Walter Bobbie should have been nominated too. Dancy I liked very much the first time around, this time he matched Nina moment for moment and almost has the harder character to play and succeeds beyond expectation.

[Kad]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 9:17pm

Another good name to bring up for touring is Spelling Bee. That tour managed to do pretty well, despite being such a small show thrust into some very large houses across the country. And it didn't get Best Musical- just Book and Actor, two awards that are largely irrelevant for tour appeal.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 9:29pm

Amazing as Nina Arianda is in VENUS IN FUR, I thought she was even better in BORN YESTERDAY. She will win this year, but if it was up to me, she would've won last year and Tracie Bennett would take the award this season.

And I agree with the sentiments in here about ONCE having the Best Musical edge. I thought it would be NEWSIES, for sure, but the love for ONCE in the theater community is rapturous.

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 9:34pm

"Why? Just the past few seasons, we've seen tours of Young Frankenstein, Xanadu, Next to Normal, American Idiot, Fela, Million Dollar Quartet, Rock of Ages, Mary Poppins, 9 to 5, Shrek, Wicked, Mamma Mia, Legally Blonde, Drowsy Chaperone, Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, Light in the Piazza... "

90% of the musicals you listed didn't need the award to tour. Most are based on really popular source material that is familiar with people across the country. ONCE doesn't have that going for it at all. The movie is virtually unknown. The only thing from it some people have the slightest knowledge about is "Falling Slowly," and that isn't even THAT big of a song with a lot of notoriety (especially in pop culture).

Young Frankenstein - popular Mel Brooks film.

Xanadu - Olivia Newton-John film, although not very popular, still more known than once (and the tour wasn't that big or long).

American Idiot - titular name of Green Day's most famous album and one of the more well known and popular rock albums of the decade.

Million Dollar Quartet - music of Elvis, et al.

Rock of Ages - can tour just because of the famous music it features.

Mary Poppins - I don't think I need to explains, it is Disney.

9 to 5 - music by Dolly Parton, from a very famous and well-loved film (although the tour wasn't that big).

Shrek - one of the most popular animated films of the decade, if not ever.

Wicked - Wizard of Oz and the fact it is Wicked (arguably the mod popular musical of the decade).

Mamma Mia! - features ABBA's very popular music. You will seldom find someone who has never heard of "Dancing Queen."

Legally Blonde - based off of a very popular film.

Sister Act - VERY popular film. (I actually called it that this movie would make a great musical when I was like, 9).

Those titles didn't need the award to enhance the notoriety of the shows or material. ONCE does need it. It is inherently an unknown title with little to no widespread notoriety across the country. We'll see about Nice Work. It has the Gershwin music going for it, but even their popularity is declining with the generations.

Next to Normal is the best exception you mentioned, which was just a great show. However, it did stick to a short tour schedule and smaller venues (which is what ONCE will have to do regardless if it wins or not).



Updated On: 5/10/12 at 09:34 PM

[Jonwo]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 9:38pm

Newsies doesn't need to win the Tony to announce a National tour or become open ended, it's doing the business due to the fact it's a very good family musical and it'll tour well just based on the fact it's Newsies and Disney. Once probably deserves to win but I don't see Newsies coming empty handed at the Tonys, they'll win at least one award.

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 9:43pm

I agree with you Jonwo, but the Tony's don't usually pass on the most tourable show because it doesn't need it to tour.

And the business it is doing is surely better than what Disney was expecting, I'm sure (at least, when it first opened at Paper Mill). That was an excellent way to build word of mouth before opening in New York, which has no doubt helped the show.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 10:02pm

I'm sure Disney are very happy with how Newsies when you considered they were coming off two high profile flops and I imagine its easily making running costs and a bit more, the only thing I wonder is whether it can go beyond North America given that the film isn't well known.

The Newsies national tour will be announced but probably at the same time as when they announce the Broadway production is an open run.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 10:09pm

I'll second that Newsies doesn't need the Tony for any help. It's expected to announce it as an open run and the tour will also sell very well. Once got better reviews, better word-of-mouth and hopefully the Tony voters actually vote for the overall better show.

[deltatee]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 10:12pm

The Next to Normal tour did not stick to small venues. It did a multi-week engagement at the Ellie Caulkins Opera House in Denver, which is a 2,100+ seat theatre.

I don't think the size of Once is dispositive of whether it tours or not. Spelling Bee is a great example: it came to Denver and played in the Buell Theatre (2,800+ seats) for a couple weeks.

Updated On: 5/10/12 at 10:12 PM

[Jonwo]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 10:12pm

Newsies will likely win Best Score and Best Choreography, would like Jeremy Jordan to win best Actor but the catergory is very strong so it's more likely to be Steve Kazee.

[aasjb4ever]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 10:18pm

The Next to Normal tour sold out the Philadelphia Academy of Music the night I saw it.
2,509 seats.

Yeah.

Once can do it.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 5/10/12 at 10:31pm

Some of you guys are acting like ONCE is barely managing to sell a ticket to the show, no one knows about it, and it could never make it anywhere.

Just because a show, either in its construct or production, may be "smaller" than productions like NEWSIES doesn't mean it won't do well or people won't go see it. I'm so sick of that argument. It's full of loopholes. ONCE is doing very well, it got great reviews, has fantastic word of mouth, and is (as the majority seems to agree) a better show than NEWSIES. Period.

God forbid the Best Musical winner actually be that season's best musical...


Regardless of the thought that ONCE "needs" the Best Musical Tony (an argument I don't agree with, by the way), it should win the damn thing because it deserves to.

Updated On: 5/10/12 at 10:31 PM

[jdrye222]

Posted: 5/11/12 at 12:38am

In my opinion, they got several things totally wrong:

- ONCE will win and should.
- Brantley is wrong - PORGY AND BESS will win.
- Brantley also wrong about Hoffman - Corden will win
- Judith Light WILL AND SHOULD win
- No way Michael Cerveris should or will... Phillip Boykin is it.

[Ejm105989]

Posted: 5/11/12 at 2:57am

One Man, Two Guvnors should have gotten a Best Play nom.

[AADA81]

Posted: 5/11/12 at 3:31am

I would still choose Jan Maxwell in "Follies" who was simply terrific. What hurts her chances is that the show closed here months ago but I still thinks she is deserving. I know this opinion will be unpopular, but for me Audra McDonald is a chilly performer despite her vocal prowess.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 5/11/12 at 10:22am

The film of Once was not a massive hit, but it's not unknown, either. It received glowing reviews and the Oscar performance gave a massive boost of interest in the film. I think the Tony nominations and reviews only reinforce the idea of Once touring.

Next to Normal, Drowsy Chaperone, Light in the Piazza, Fela and Spelling Bee were not known properties and played to large houses. I saw Next to Normal at the 1,800-seat Bank of America Theatre in Chicago.

[ZoeTheGoat]

Posted: 5/11/12 at 10:35am

Lysistrata Jones? Really?! Brantley and I don't agree...I thought that show would have rocked an Off-Broadway house at New World Stages, but never should have gone to Broadway.
Once should take Best Musical not Newsies.

[egghumor]

Posted: 5/11/12 at 3:10pm

jdrye222, if you'll go back and look at my previous comments you'll see we're in complete agreement. Thanks, comrade!

[jdrye222]

Posted: 5/11/12 at 3:16pm

thanks egghumor...
Honestly, I have a lot of trouble following who says what where on this board... Maybe I just don't know how to use the site, but having to reclick through the pages and go to the end of the thread to read new comments is kind of crazy... Why wouldn't the most recent comments be FIRST?
Am I missing something? I'm not tech-savvy, just to give a heads up, so it could be completely my fault.

[egghumor]

Posted: 5/11/12 at 7:39pm

It truly doesn't matter! If you wish to scroll thru an entire thread, you can either click on the title, or click on page "1" in the lower right corner following the final post on any subsequent page.

[inlovewithjerryherman]

Posted: 5/12/12 at 12:08am

Brantley is ridiculous. He can't even write a list without giving it the dramatic "flow" of a review. His "should win" for best score is essentially just a "f*** you" to Menken, which is what he caps the whole thing off on - inferring that the season overall has been disappointing.

[broadwayfreak4]

Posted: 5/17/12 at 1:47am

I think Newsies will win Best Musical. Although I do not live in NY and have not seen the shows this season, Newsies is more marketable than Once because it is the "mainstream" musical that is more attractable to tourists. I think this will happen a la the Memphis Best Musical win over Fela. Memphis is coming to a city close to me and is getting great buzz already. I have listened to the music for Newsies and Once. I think Newsies will take Best Score hands down, though I have no clue why Once wasn't nominated. If Once does win Best Musical, I hope it pulls an Avenue Q/Wicked from the 2004 Tonys (Avenue Q beating Wicked with Wicked being the frontrunner and also more successful financially).

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 5/17/12 at 1:55am

Once was not eligible for best score. I absolutely DESPISE the score for Newsies. I find it to be repetitive and obnoxious. If I could have my way, Bonnie and Clyde would take best score - One of my all time favorite scores. So glad it got nominated. This is two seasons in a row where a score from an already closed show I adored got nominated (Women On The Verge's score is an absolute masterpiece and was my favorite score last season next to Book of Mormon).
I would love to see Evita take best choreography (the choreography for Buenos Aires and I'd Be Surprisingly Good for You was breathtaking and beautiful), but unfortunately then back-handspring and cartwheeling Newsies choreography will probably be taking that. oh well.

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 5/17/12 at 2:46am

Lol I'll just save you the time and let everyone know you hate Newsies or have some vendetta against it and hope it doesn't win a single award (regardless if it deserves one or not - and yes, it deserves several of them) and move on. Okay? Cool.