Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread — Page 16

no.

They're usually shown on NY 1, and sometimes the morning shows (today, gma) mention them.


I think the Tony website might do a live feed of the announcements.

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Updated On: 4/26/09 at 11:39 PM

"I hope the entire cast of NORMAN is nominated, as yankee predicted. They're all fantastic."

Very much agreed

Here's what I'm thinking:

Best Musical
9 to 5
Billy Elliot:The Musical
Next to Normal
Shrek the Musical

Best Revival of a Musical
Guys and Dolls
Hair
Pal Joey
West Side Story

Best Lead Actor in a Musical
David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, Kiril Kulish; Billy Elliot: The Musical
Craig Bierko, Guys and Dolls
Gavin Creel, Hair
Brian D'Arcy James, Shrek the Musical
J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal

Best Lead Actress in a Musical
Sutton Foster, Shrek the Musical
Kate Jennings Grant, Guys and Dolls
Allison Janney, 9 to 5
Alice Ripley, Next to Normal
Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot: The Musical
Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5
Christopher Sieber, Shrek the Musical
Will Swenson, Hair
Aaron Tveit, Next to Normal

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Stephanie J. Block, 9 to 5
Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot: The Musical
Megan Hilty, 9 to 5
Karen Olivo, West Side Story
Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey

Best Score
9 to 5
Billy Elliot: The Musical
Next to Normal
Shrek the Musical

Best Book
9 to 5
Billy Elliot: The Musical
Shrek the Musical
[title of show]

Best Direction of a Musical
Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot: The Musical
Arthur Laurents, West Side Story
Joe Mantello, 9 to 5
Diane Paulus, Hair

Best Choreography
Karole Armitage, Hair
Andy Blankenbuehler, 9 to 5
Peter Darling, Billy Elliot: The Musical
Sergio Trujillo, Guys and Dolls

I filled out the Jefigibility Chart. I did only the Musicals because I haven't seen all the plays. Also the Leading and Featured Actress categories are a little messed up because I didn't know the placements.


Edit- I just realized I never posted my chart, how stupid!

[IMG]

Updated On: 5/2/09 at 03:56 PM

The main nomination contests right now seem to be:

BEST MUSICAL:
Rock of Ages vs. Shrek the Musical vs. [title of show]

BEST ACTOR:
Craig Bierko vs. Matt Cavenaugh

BEST ACTRESS:
Josefina Scaglione vs. Sutton Foster

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS:
Kathy Fitzgerald vs. Jennifer Damiano vs. Carole Shelley (two spots)

So here are my predictions:
________________________

Best Musical:

9 to 5
PRO: Audience response has been great. Road producers will love it.
CON: Critics gave it mixed notices. Too fluffy?

Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: The top pick for this category since it was announced. Also, it's great.
CON: You're joking, right?

Next to Normal
PRO: A groundbreaking work. Definitely the most highbrow of this season's musicals.
CON: Is the hype reaching its saturation point? Backlash may be on its way.

Shrek the Musical
PRO: A great cast, a catchy score, and a huge technical achievement. It will ultimately outpace Rock of Ages, its main competitor.
CON: Some critics found it lackluster. Many think it's the bottom of the Broadway movie-to-musical barrel. Does it really deserve to be nominated? Reidel insists everyone hates it.

Best Revival of a Musical:
Guys and Dolls
Hair
Pal Joey
West Side Story

Best Director of a Musical:
Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot the Musical
Love for his show will sweep him up.

Arthur Laurents, West Side Story
A sentimental favorite, plus the critics loved his revival. Media exposure doesn't hurt. But he also has his haters.

Diane Paulus, Hair
Successfully pulled off what many thought she couldn't in transferring her show from the park.

Michael Greif, Next to Normal
Was robbed for Rent, and 9 to 5's tepid reception means he takes Mantello's spot.

Best Book:
9 to 5
Billy Elliot the Musical
Next to Normal
Rock of Ages

Best Score:
9 to 5
Billy Elliot the Musical
Next to Normal
[title of show]

Best Actor in a Musical:

David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish, Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: The theater community can't get enough of these boys...or their show. The committee ruling solidified their spot.
CON: Do they really deserve this? Are they really giving the best leading actor performance of the season?

Matt Cavenaugh, West Side Story
PRO: Love for his show is abundant. He seems to be edging out Bierko.
CON: Larry Kert. Richard Beymer. Can he match up to these greats, or will their shadows eclipse him?

Gavin Creel, Hair
PRO: People really seem to love him and the show.
CON: In the past, the Tonys have ignored this role. Is he really enough of a standout?

Brian d'Arcy James, Shrek the Musical
PRO: A great voice and great leading-man presence...under pounds of makeup. Everyone loves this cast.
CON: The show has many detractors who will probably lump him in with the rest of the show.

J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal
PRO: A member of a beloved cast, highly praised.
CON: Some don't think his voice is suited to the role. Is he really as effective as d'Arcy James was?

Best Actress in a Musical:

Sutton Foster, Shrek the Musical
PRO: Weak category. Everyone loves her.
CON: Young Frankenstein showed she can miss a nomination. The Shrek factor.

Megan Hilty OR Stephanie J. Block, 9 to 5
PRO: Weak category. Got some good notices. Stephanie has a big "Tony moment" and Megan is very funny.
CON: Hilty got good reviews, but Block didn't. VOTE SPLIT. One will not be nominated. 3 nominated in one category? REALLY?

Allison Janney, 9 to 5
PRO: She's hilarious.
CON: She can't sing and can barely dance. Is it fair to give her this award?

Alice Ripley, Next to Normal
PRO: She's had momentum since the second her production transferred. The critics couldn't breathe in between singing her praises.
CON: Janney or Scaglione?

Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story
PRO: Great voice. Unknown factor.
CON: Is she a great actress?

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: The veteran factor. Huge support for the show.
CON: Many found him wooden.

Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5
PRO: The only leading guy in the show. Very funny, and has been snubbed in the past.
CON: Has been snubbed in the past. His second-act song is atrocious and overall reception for the show was tepid.

Christopher Sieber, Shrek the Musical
PRO: Easily the funniest performer in the show. Campy, hammy Tony bait.
CON: The Shrek factor. Too over-the-top?

Will Swenson, Hair
PRO: Beloved show. Support has surged.
CON: Is his role really a standout? Tonys have ignored it in the past.

Aaron Tveit, Next to Normal
PRO: Great notices. A huge presence throughout the show.
CON: He's already jumping ship for his next show. Will Tony voters dislike this?

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:

Jennifer Damiano, Next to Normal
PRO: Many loved her and the show.
CON: Some critics ignored her. Is she too forgettable? Youth factor; will Tony voters pick her over any of the above?

Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: Funny, hammy...complete and utter Tony bait. Billy Elliot love.
CON: Was she as spectacular as she could have been? Are people forgetting about her?

Karen Olivo, West Side Story
PRO: Got some of the best reviews of any performer this season in a beloved role. Concerns about her dancing seem to be limited to a certain couple posters on this board...
CON: ...but they may grow.

Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey
PRO: A Tony favorite. Easily the best-reviewed part of the show.
CON: The show was disappointing. Has everyone forgotten about her?

Carole Shelley, Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: Apparently people love her. The veteran factor. Billy Elliot love.
CON: Was she really FANTASTIC?

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i really wonder if jennifer damiano is going to get nominated....i feel like the reviews really ignored her....but everyone seems to think that she's a guarantee nominee.....thoughts?