Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread — Page 13

Michael Greif will get a Best Director nomination ahead of Arthur Laurents.

At this point, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Jennifer Damiano nomianted (but certainly not win) in Best Featured Actress, along with Gwynne, Olivo, Block, and Hilty. I still think Gwynne or Olivo will win the award, though. The last spot will either be her or Martha Plimpton, who while a Tony favorite, is in a long forgotten and poorly reviewed show.

I think DrunkChitaRivera has the Featured Actor nominees right on, and I think Swenson will ultimately triumph as well.

Spencer seems to have secured himself a Lead Actor nod, where he'll be alongside the Billys (who will win), James, Creel, and a 5th nominee, which could very be either Bierko or Cavenaugh, simply to fill out the category.

Lead Actress is tougher to predict nominees, but Ripley, Janney, and Scaglione are sure bets. At this point, anyone not picking Ripley to win is deluding themselves.

Updated On: 4/16/09 at 11:37 AM

Hi Greer. (seems like the most logical thing to write next)

Updated On: 4/16/09 at 12:13 PM

I am shocked at how many people think 9 to 5 either will win or should win. I thought it was one of the worst pieces of crap I've ever seen. What was there to like about it? I was bored silly, and couldn't help but thinking how good it could/should have been. It is the epitome of the "tourist musical" or "musical for the masses," much moreso than even Legally Blonde. There's no heart, no charm, no fun, no originality, no cleverness ... just a weak carbon copy of a very funny movie with bad songs thrown in. I'm sure it will be nominated, but it doesn't stand a chance in hell of winning. It is really between BE and N2N. Personally, I think it will be BE, although both are very worthy contenders.

I'm still not sold on one woman from 9 to 5 being considered for best actress and the other two put into featured. I'm sure they'll campaign that way, sure. But in the end? Who knows. All three women are fairly equal in the show, all have their names above the title, equally shown on all publicity, split the final bow...

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Trace is right. No one is above the title, which means they'll have to petition one or more of them as a lead. They'll definitely try to split them up, as there is no way all 3 would be nominated in the same category. Janney, being the 4 time Emmy Award winning actress (and the biggest name of the group), will be bumped up to leading actress.

"anyone not picking Ripley to win is deluding themselves"
Gee you slip Esparza in there and it's deja vu all over again.

Now that I've seen "Mary Stuart" I'm pretty sure Janet McTeer is going to win Leading Actress in a Play.

adamgreer, why don't you think all 3 of the 9 to 5 women would be nominated in the same category?

Unless I'm missing something, the possible nominees for Leading Actress in a Musical are:

Kerry O'Malley, White Christmas
Meredith Patterson, White Christmas
Sutton Foster, Shrek
Stockard Channing, Pal Joey
Lauren Graham, Guys and Dolls
Kate Jennings Grant, Guys and Dolls
Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story*
Amy Spanger, Rock of Ages*
Alice Ripley, Next to Normal
Stephanie J. Block, 9 to 5*
Megan Hilty, 9 to 5*
Allison Janney, 9 to 5*

(*Not official, but likely)

That's 12 women vying for 5 spots. I think it's pretty safe to say that O'Malley, Patterson, Graham, Grant and Spanger will most likely not be nominated. So that leaves us with 7.

Ripley is definitely a lock (and will probably win) and I would be surprised if Scaglione doesn't get in as well.

Of the 5 remaining, Channing got pretty good reviews overall but her show was not particularly well received and it closed in March. Foster has a similar situation (personal reviews pretty good, show reviews not great) though she does have the advantage of her show still playing. And then there's Block, Hilty and Janney who are in a show that's looking like it will be a hit, have good buzz about all of their performances and are opening at the end of the season right before the Nominating Committee makes their decisions.

WAT ... I'm with you on Jbara. Yes, Swenson is great in Hair .. full of energy and giving a wonderful performance. But Jbara is giving the performance of his career in BE. He shows such a range of emotions, and his performance really blew me away. While I thoroughly enjoyed Swenson, he didn't leave the impact that Jbara did.

Order of likelihood of winning:

Best Musical:
Billy Elliot the Musical
9 to 5
Next to Normal
Shrek the Musical

Best Book:
Billy Elliot the Musical
9 to 5
Next to Normal
Shrek the Musical

Best Score:
9 to 5
Next to Normal
Billy Elliot the Musical
[title of show]

Best Director:
Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot the Musical
Diane Paulus, Hair
Arthur Laurents, West Side Story
Joe Mantello, 9 to 5

Best Actor:
David/Trent/Kiril, Billy Elliot the Musical
Gavin Creel, Hair
Brian D'Arcy James, Shrek the Musical
J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal
Matt Cavenaugh, West Side Story

Best Actress:
Allison Janney, 9 to 5
Alice Ripley, Next to Normal
Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story
Sutton Foster, Shrek the Musical
Kate Jennings Grant, Guys and Dolls

Best Featured Actor:
Christopher Sieber, Shrek the Musical
Will Swenson, Hair
Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5
Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot the Musical
Aaron Tveit, Next to Normal

Best Featured Actress:
Karen Olivo, West Side Story
Stephanie J. Block, 9 to 5
Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot the Musical
Megan Hilty, 9 to 5
Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey

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What about Mary Stuart. Judging by the reception on the board thus far, it seems to have a good chance in terms of nomination.


Also in regards to the 9 to 5 ladies placement I assume Janney would be Lead with Hilty and Block in featured. It seems likes the smartest way to approach it. Janney would be the spoiler for Ripley and Stephanie Block has a very good chance of winning.

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I can't wait until the Tony Committee meets so we can finally get the official word on the placement of the 9 to 5 gals. Since some people are putting all of them in lead, others in features, very confusing when trying to make final predictions.

Piragua, really? 9-5 for best score?