Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread — Page 14

Dolly constructed a masterpiece & deserves the TONY.

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9 TO 5's score is a masterpiece?!

Really...? Or was that sarcasm? I hope it was.

I still see Billy Elliot pretty much sweeping this year. It was the early frontrunner and still is in my book.

And I don't think anyone from Hair will win an acting award.

~Steven

NOTE: I'm not big on predicting plays. People always bitch when I don't include them, but I don't give a crap because my predictions always come out wrong.

Best Musical:

9 to 5
PRO: Audience response so far has been great. It's got a great cast.
CON: Some may find it too fluffy and mediocre.

Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: The top pick for this category since it was announced. Also, it's great.
CON: You're joking, right?

Next to Normal
PRO: A groundbreaking work. Definitely the most highbrow of this season's musicals.
CON: Is the hype reaching its saturation point? Backlash may be on its way.

Shrek the Musical
PRO: A great cast, a catchy score, and a huge technical achievement. It will ultimately outpace Rock of Ages, its main competitor.
CON: Some critics found it lackluster. Many think it's the bottom of the Broadway movie-to-musical barrel. Does it really deserve to be nominated?

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Rock of Ages
PRO: Got great reviews. VERY small pool this season.
CON: Too lowbrow?

[title of show]
PRO: Devoted fanbase. Beloved by the theater community.
CON: Has everyone forgotten about it already? Is Next to Normal filling the "original, edgy" niche? Self-indulgent artistic masturbation?

Best Revival of a Musical:
Guys and Dolls
Hair
Pal Joey
West Side Story

Best Director of a Musical:

Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot the Musical
Love for his show will sweep him up.

Arthur Laurents, West Side Story
A sentimental favorite, plus the critics loved his revival. Media exposure doesn't hurt. But he also has his haters.

Joe Mantello, 9 to 5
He's the master of a massive but well-oiled machine (no pun intended).

Diane Paulus, Hair
Successfully pulled off what many thought she couldn't in transferring her show from the park.

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Michael Greif, Next to Normal
Was robbed for Rent, and this doesn't seem to be his year.

Best Book:
9 to 5
Billy Elliot the Musical
Next to Normal
Shrek the Musical

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[title of show]
Rock of Ages

Best Score:
9 to 5
Billy Elliot the Musical
Next to Normal
[title of show]

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Shrek the Musical
The Story of My Life

Best Actor in a Musical:

David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish, Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: The theater community can't get enough of these boys...or their show. The committee ruling solidified their spot.
CON: Do they really deserve this? Are they really giving the best leading actor performance of the season?

Matt Cavenaugh, West Side Story
PRO: Love for his show is abundant. He seems to be edging out Bierko.
CON: Larry Kert. Richard Beymer. Can he match up to these greats, or will their shadows eclipse him?

Gavin Creel, Hair
PRO: People really seem to love him and the show.
CON: In the past, the Tonys have ignored this role. Is he really enough of a standout?

Brian d'Arcy James, Shrek the Musical
PRO: A great voice and great leading-man presence...under pounds of makeup. Everyone loves this cast.
CON: The show has many detractors who will probably lump him in with the rest of the show.

J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal
PRO: A member of a beloved cast, highly praised.
CON: Some don't think his voice is suited to the role. Is he really as effective as d'Arcy James was?

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Craig Bierko, Guys and Dolls
PRO: Didn't get COMPLETELY ripped apart.
CON: ...but his show did. Where's the buzz? Does he really deserve this?

James Barbour, A Tale of Two Cities
PRO: People liked him.
CON: Again, the show got torn to shreds. He's also a pedophile and I don't think anyone will be too quick to forget that.

Malcolm Gets OR Will Chase, The Story of My Life
PRO: Weak year.
CON: They didn't exactly get raves. The what of my what? Does anyone remember this show?

Best Actress in a Musical:

Sutton Foster, Shrek the Musical
PRO: She's only missed a nomination once, for a role that wasted her. She's in her element here.
CON: What I'm now going to call the "Shrek factor".

Lauren Graham, Guys and Dolls
PRO: Oh God, I'm going to get ripped apart for this. The critics didn't like her but there's always one WTF nomination. Star name? Weak year. It's her or Jennings Grant.
CON: She fared VERY badly.

Allison Janney, 9 to 5
PRO: Love for the show. She's hilarious.
CON: She can't sing and can barely dance. Is it fair to give her this award?

Alice Ripley, Next to Normal
PRO: She's had momentum since the second her production transferred. The critics couldn't breathe in between singing her praises.
CON: Allison Janney fell behind but could easily catch up.

Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story
PRO: Great voice. Unknown factor.
CON: Is she a great actress?

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Kate Jennings Grant, Guys and Dolls
PRO: Got the best reviews out of the four. Weak year.
CON: Graham. Her show got eviscerated.

Stockard Channing, Pal Joey
PRO: Weak year. She has her fans.
CON: Disappointing performance in a disappointing show.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: The veteran factor. Huge support for the show.
CON: Many found him wooden.

Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5
PRO: The only leading guy in the show. Very funny, and has been snubbed in the past.
CON: Has been snubbed in the past. His second-act song is still atrocious.

Christopher Sieber, Shrek the Musical
PRO: Easily the funniest performer in the show. Campy, hammy Tony bait.
CON: The Shrek factor. Too over-the-top?

Will Swenson, Hair
PRO: Beloved show. Support has surged.
CON: Is his role really a standout? Tonys have ignored it in the past.

Aaron Tveit, Next to Normal
PRO: Great notices. A huge presence throughout the show.
CON: He's already jumping ship for his next show. Will Tony voters dislike this?

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George Akram, West Side Story
PRO: Great dancer.
CON: Bad actor. The Tonys have traditionally ignored this role.

Daniel Breaker, Shrek the Musical
PRO: Funny. People remember his near-win last year.
CON: Sieber. The Shrek factor.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:

Stephanie J. Block, 9 to 5
PRO: Has a big "Tony moment". Undergoes a huge character transformation.
CON: Category placement is still unknown. How's it going to shake out? Vote splitting with the equally wonderful Hilty.

Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: Funny, hammy...complete and utter Tony bait. Billy Elliot love.
CON: Was she as spectacular as she could have been? Are people forgetting about her?

Megan Hilty, 9 to 5
PRO: Shakes off the shadow of Dolly. Hilarious.
CON: Has one awful song. Vote splitting with the equally wonderful Block. Category placement could spell doom...

Karen Olivo, West Side Story
PRO: Got some of the best reviews of any performer this season in a beloved role. Concerns about her dancing seem to be limited to a certain couple posters on this board...
CON: ...but they may grow.

Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey
PRO: A Tony favorite. Easily the best-reviewed part of the show.
CON: The show was disappointing. Has everyone forgotten about her?

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Jennifer Damiano, Next to Normal
PRO: Many loved her.
CON: Some critics ignored her. Is she too forgettable? Youth factor; will Tony voters pick her over any of the above?

Heidi Blickenstaff OR Susan Blackwell, [title of show]
PRO: Could easily slip in.
CON: Lost tons of momentum. They're basically playing themselves.

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Updated On: 4/17/09 at 04:15 PM

Thanks.

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Backwoods Barbie.

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I don't even think that the Billys should be nominated together. That makes it seem like they are rewarding the role instead of the actor.

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TimeSquare-

I totally agree...nominating the Billys together is ridiculous. If one of them really gives the best perf. on broadway then great...but all three is just rewarding the role. They can't possibly all be equal.

Billy is NOT getting set. If anything gets set besides 9 to 5 it's Shrek.


Also I think Director will go to Hair. And Lighting will go to something else.

Updated On: 4/17/09 at 10:52 PM

I am hoping for a Diane win as well. I don't think BE will get set, but I do agree with everything else on your list Curtain.

I didn't read the whole thread, but I have read other thread predictions. My prediction is Allison Janney has more of shot to win over Alice Ripley than many here think. While she may weak on her singing, her great acting in the role overcomes it. And I think her celebrity status will not hurt her either. I think Alice was better in her role, but I don't vote. Stephanie J. Block was out Friday night, so I was not able to judge her performance.

I don't see why nominating the three performers doesn't make sense. They all share the role, they alternate it. And if the committee considers they are all equally good (which I'm sure they do), then it makes perfect sense.

If one of them was outstanding and the other two mediocre,the objection would make more sense to me, but I don't think it's the case.

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I'm thinking Warchus has it. Sher won last season and Pepe's show closed too early.

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