Official Tony Award 2009 Predictions Thread- Page 14

[TimeSquare3]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 1:11am

Dolly constructed a masterpiece & deserves the TONY.

[Kad]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 1:18am

I also think that [title of show] is more likely to get a nomination for its book than its score, if anything at all.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 1:20am

9 TO 5's score is a masterpiece?!

Really...? Or was that sarcasm? I hope it was.

[esparza 333]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 8:40am

"Dolly constructed a masterpiece & deserves the TONY."


Dolly by no means constructed a masterpiece. From what I have heard it is a very nice toe tapping score. Having said that I think she was the frontrunner for score before Next To Normal was announced. Yorkey and Kitt's music is absolutely brilliant. I adore all of the songs I have heard,


Goodness just talking and discussing the possible nominees in plays and musicals is making me more excited for tonys then I have ever been.

Updated On: 4/17/09 at 08:40 AM

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 12:05pm

I still see Billy Elliot pretty much sweeping this year. It was the early frontrunner and still is in my book.

And I don't think anyone from Hair will win an acting award.

~Steven

[Theatreboy49]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 2:44pm

Steven, I agree that nobody from HAIR will win an acting award because while there are some standout performances (Swenson and Creel specifically for tony's sake) I have always viewed the show as an ensemble piece and while a nomination would be deserved for their work I don't see them deserving the win as much as other actors. Plus they are both young and will have other oppurtuities (Creel moreso than Swenson I would think) and will eventually win one. I think in the featured catagory it is going to go to Sieber though a win fro Jbara or Swenson would be ok in my book I think Sieber will win on the merits of both his current performance as well as performances past.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 4:15pm

NOTE: I'm not big on predicting plays. People always bitch when I don't include them, but I don't give a crap because my predictions always come out wrong.

Best Musical:

9 to 5
PRO: Audience response so far has been great. It's got a great cast.
CON: Some may find it too fluffy and mediocre.

Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: The top pick for this category since it was announced. Also, it's great.
CON: You're joking, right?

Next to Normal
PRO: A groundbreaking work. Definitely the most highbrow of this season's musicals.
CON: Is the hype reaching its saturation point? Backlash may be on its way.

Shrek the Musical
PRO: A great cast, a catchy score, and a huge technical achievement. It will ultimately outpace Rock of Ages, its main competitor.
CON: Some critics found it lackluster. Many think it's the bottom of the Broadway movie-to-musical barrel. Does it really deserve to be nominated?

below the cut

Rock of Ages
PRO: Got great reviews. VERY small pool this season.
CON: Too lowbrow?

[title of show]
PRO: Devoted fanbase. Beloved by the theater community.
CON: Has everyone forgotten about it already? Is Next to Normal filling the "original, edgy" niche? Self-indulgent artistic masturbation?

Best Revival of a Musical:
Guys and Dolls
Hair
Pal Joey
West Side Story

Best Director of a Musical:

Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot the Musical
Love for his show will sweep him up.

Arthur Laurents, West Side Story
A sentimental favorite, plus the critics loved his revival. Media exposure doesn't hurt. But he also has his haters.

Joe Mantello, 9 to 5
He's the master of a massive but well-oiled machine (no pun intended).

Diane Paulus, Hair
Successfully pulled off what many thought she couldn't in transferring her show from the park.

below the cut

Michael Greif, Next to Normal
Was robbed for Rent, and this doesn't seem to be his year.

Best Book:
9 to 5
Billy Elliot the Musical
Next to Normal
Shrek the Musical

below the cut

[title of show]
Rock of Ages

Best Score:
9 to 5
Billy Elliot the Musical
Next to Normal
[title of show]

below the cut

Shrek the Musical
The Story of My Life

Best Actor in a Musical:

David Alvarez, Trent Kowalik, and Kiril Kulish, Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: The theater community can't get enough of these boys...or their show. The committee ruling solidified their spot.
CON: Do they really deserve this? Are they really giving the best leading actor performance of the season?

Matt Cavenaugh, West Side Story
PRO: Love for his show is abundant. He seems to be edging out Bierko.
CON: Larry Kert. Richard Beymer. Can he match up to these greats, or will their shadows eclipse him?

Gavin Creel, Hair
PRO: People really seem to love him and the show.
CON: In the past, the Tonys have ignored this role. Is he really enough of a standout?

Brian d'Arcy James, Shrek the Musical
PRO: A great voice and great leading-man presence...under pounds of makeup. Everyone loves this cast.
CON: The show has many detractors who will probably lump him in with the rest of the show.

J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal
PRO: A member of a beloved cast, highly praised.
CON: Some don't think his voice is suited to the role. Is he really as effective as d'Arcy James was?

below the cut

Craig Bierko, Guys and Dolls
PRO: Didn't get COMPLETELY ripped apart.
CON: ...but his show did. Where's the buzz? Does he really deserve this?

James Barbour, A Tale of Two Cities
PRO: People liked him.
CON: Again, the show got torn to shreds. He's also a pedophile and I don't think anyone will be too quick to forget that.

Malcolm Gets OR Will Chase, The Story of My Life
PRO: Weak year.
CON: They didn't exactly get raves. The what of my what? Does anyone remember this show?

Best Actress in a Musical:

Sutton Foster, Shrek the Musical
PRO: She's only missed a nomination once, for a role that wasted her. She's in her element here.
CON: What I'm now going to call the "Shrek factor".

Lauren Graham, Guys and Dolls
PRO: Oh God, I'm going to get ripped apart for this. The critics didn't like her but there's always one WTF nomination. Star name? Weak year. It's her or Jennings Grant.
CON: She fared VERY badly.

Allison Janney, 9 to 5
PRO: Love for the show. She's hilarious.
CON: She can't sing and can barely dance. Is it fair to give her this award?

Alice Ripley, Next to Normal
PRO: She's had momentum since the second her production transferred. The critics couldn't breathe in between singing her praises.
CON: Allison Janney fell behind but could easily catch up.

Josefina Scaglione, West Side Story
PRO: Great voice. Unknown factor.
CON: Is she a great actress?

below the cut

Kate Jennings Grant, Guys and Dolls
PRO: Got the best reviews out of the four. Weak year.
CON: Graham. Her show got eviscerated.

Stockard Channing, Pal Joey
PRO: Weak year. She has her fans.
CON: Disappointing performance in a disappointing show.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

Gregory Jbara, Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: The veteran factor. Huge support for the show.
CON: Many found him wooden.

Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5
PRO: The only leading guy in the show. Very funny, and has been snubbed in the past.
CON: Has been snubbed in the past. His second-act song is still atrocious.

Christopher Sieber, Shrek the Musical
PRO: Easily the funniest performer in the show. Campy, hammy Tony bait.
CON: The Shrek factor. Too over-the-top?

Will Swenson, Hair
PRO: Beloved show. Support has surged.
CON: Is his role really a standout? Tonys have ignored it in the past.

Aaron Tveit, Next to Normal
PRO: Great notices. A huge presence throughout the show.
CON: He's already jumping ship for his next show. Will Tony voters dislike this?

below the cut

George Akram, West Side Story
PRO: Great dancer.
CON: Bad actor. The Tonys have traditionally ignored this role.

Daniel Breaker, Shrek the Musical
PRO: Funny. People remember his near-win last year.
CON: Sieber. The Shrek factor.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:

Stephanie J. Block, 9 to 5
PRO: Has a big "Tony moment". Undergoes a huge character transformation.
CON: Category placement is still unknown. How's it going to shake out? Vote splitting with the equally wonderful Hilty.

Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot the Musical
PRO: Funny, hammy...complete and utter Tony bait. Billy Elliot love.
CON: Was she as spectacular as she could have been? Are people forgetting about her?

Megan Hilty, 9 to 5
PRO: Shakes off the shadow of Dolly. Hilarious.
CON: Has one awful song. Vote splitting with the equally wonderful Block. Category placement could spell doom...

Karen Olivo, West Side Story
PRO: Got some of the best reviews of any performer this season in a beloved role. Concerns about her dancing seem to be limited to a certain couple posters on this board...
CON: ...but they may grow.

Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey
PRO: A Tony favorite. Easily the best-reviewed part of the show.
CON: The show was disappointing. Has everyone forgotten about her?

below the cut

Jennifer Damiano, Next to Normal
PRO: Many loved her.
CON: Some critics ignored her. Is she too forgettable? Youth factor; will Tony voters pick her over any of the above?

Heidi Blickenstaff OR Susan Blackwell, [title of show]
PRO: Could easily slip in.
CON: Lost tons of momentum. They're basically playing themselves.

Updated On: 4/17/09 at 04:15 PM

[Amaranth9]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 5:24pm

Thanks for your predictions/thoughts on these things PiraguaGuy2. I often enjoy them. Some, including myself, may disagree with certain comments or could certainly come up with more to add, but you keep in mind that there are many facets to a performance and reasons for or against awards. The theater-going public will fall along a range of shows which is not always reflected on this board, and though I'm sure you have your favorites, you recognize that without being as judgmental.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 5:26pm

Thanks.

[jagfkb]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 7:59pm

I agree with most of the above, but one major disaggrement: Where's Jeff and Hunter? Also, what awful song does Megan have? The cowgirl scene?

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 9:03pm

Backwoods Barbie.

[beltzies613]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 10:00pm

What I don't understand is this: If the Billys are supposedly shoe ins for the best actor Tony, then it must be because of their level of talent at such a young age because the grown men in that category give much better performances than they do. So why isn't the amazingly talented Jen Damiano at least a serious consideration for the featured actress when she is just as talented as the other women in that category (IMO) at a much younger age then them? Give Jen her Tony nom atleast!!

[TimeSquare3]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 10:05pm

I don't even think that the Billys should be nominated together. That makes it seem like they are rewarding the role instead of the actor.

[Drunk Chita Rivera]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 10:09pm

I think the Billy's age is a big pat of their award. They are talented at such a young age that it impresses the Tony Voters. I would much rather see Gavin Creel win, he has a better voice and probably a better actor. The Billys are also mainly going to be awarded because of their dancing skills. If this was a dancing award they they should clearly get it but because they are mainly only dancers it should go to someone else.

[hunterchi]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 10:12pm

TimeSquare-

I totally agree...nominating the Billys together is ridiculous. If one of them really gives the best perf. on broadway then great...but all three is just rewarding the role. They can't possibly all be equal.

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 10:23pm

They are rewarding the role as played by the three actors,
I mean who wants to vote against them?
Can you see their three little faces on National TV if they lose?
"He's also a pedophile and I don't think anyone will be too quick to forget that."
Amen.
I think there will be a BILLY Sweep with a few prizes to perhaps Dolly, Christopher and Ripley/Janney.
The Block, Olivo, Hilty thing could open the door for Gwynne/Plimpton/Damiano and I am still not counting out
Allison Case.

BILLY:
Musical
Director
Choreography
Actor
Set
Lighting
Book

[Drunk Chita Rivera]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 10:52pm

Billy is NOT getting set. If anything gets set besides 9 to 5 it's Shrek.


Also I think Director will go to Hair. And Lighting will go to something else. Updated On: 4/17/09 at 10:52 PM

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 11:07pm

OK

I would LOVE to see Paulus get it, but that's a longshot.

If BILLY doesn't get Set in a sweep, I owe you a drink, Drunk!

[sgv123]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 11:09pm

I am hoping for a Diane win as well. I don't think BE will get set, but I do agree with everything else on your list Curtain.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 4/17/09 at 11:54pm

PiraguaGuy, exactly how many of these shows and performers have you actually seen this season?

[broadfan327]

Posted: 4/18/09 at 1:37am

I didn't read the whole thread, but I have read other thread predictions. My prediction is Allison Janney has more of shot to win over Alice Ripley than many here think. While she may weak on her singing, her great acting in the role overcomes it. And I think her celebrity status will not hurt her either. I think Alice was better in her role, but I don't vote. Stephanie J. Block was out Friday night, so I was not able to judge her performance.

[Dolly_Levi]

Posted: 4/19/09 at 6:31pm

I don't think that the 3 "Billys" should be nominated as 1 in the LEAD category (and no matter how impressive they are individually, if nominated collectively- they should not win).

If the TONYS want to to reward them - give them a special TONY.

[blaxx]

Posted: 4/19/09 at 7:37pm

I don't see why nominating the three performers doesn't make sense. They all share the role, they alternate it. And if the committee considers they are all equally good (which I'm sure they do), then it makes perfect sense.

If one of them was outstanding and the other two mediocre,the objection would make more sense to me, but I don't think it's the case.

[esparza 333]

Posted: 4/20/09 at 7:52pm

Another race I am very interested about is Best Director in a Play. Warchus had two shots at a win but Sher, Lloyd and even Pepe could be good competition.

[PiraguaGuy2]

Posted: 4/20/09 at 7:58pm

I'm thinking Warchus has it. Sher won last season and Pepe's show closed too early.