I wouldn't be surprised if NIGHT MUSIC won the Tony in the season of Sondheim's 80th birthday. However, they may consider nominating SONDHEIM TO SONDHEIM for Best Musical enough. LA CAGE is the one to beat but I agree the fact it won 5 years ago (even if it was because it had virtually no competition) hurts its chances now.
And saying that Brantley's review didn't scream Tony is just complete denial, she may not win the actual award but she's certainly in the competition after Brantley wrote her a valentine.
"Some people can thrive and bloom living life in a living room, that's perfect for some people of one hundred and five. But I at least gotta try, when I think of all the sights that I gotta see, all the places I gotta play, all the things that I gotta be at"