Riedel on Groundhog Day coming to Broadway

[10086sunset]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 10:10pm

http://nypost.com/2016/08/18/broadway-producers-are-terrified-of-groundhog-day/

He claims it will sweep the Tonys...

True or another Bullets Over Broadway?

[ethan231h]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 10:14pm

I don't know it may be me, my friends/family but i'm pretty sure a lot of people are talking about Dear Evan Hansen and Natasha.....maybe not as much talk as hamilton but theres talk.

Updated On: 8/18/16 at 10:14 PM

[Oak2]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 10:23pm

What is this Riedel guy's usual track record with such predictions? I am not trying to be sarcastic or making a joke here, I am relatively new to Broadway and don't really know who this is, so I don't yet know if this guy has a history of being right or wrong or not in how to measure what he's saying. Apologies for my ignorance.

[binau]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 10:28pm

Riedel genuinely seems to have inside sources and so my feeling (without thinking about what evidence I have to support that) is that his predictions of whether shows will happen or not etc. are often accurate - like the general movements on Broadway. But Riedel's judgements of shows are definitely not always accurate. In order words, I would guess it's likely true they are eying broadway.

However, he will (and should never) live down his ridiculous praise for Bullets and predictions about its success that was so far from the truth it's laughable. I don't think we have enough reason to believe yet that Groundhog Day will sweep the Tonys etc. But it's fun to create a story with tension etc. and generate interest. It's far less interesting to be truthful and say something like "There is a chance that Groundhog Day could come to Broadway, and it's far too early to conclude whether it will or will not sweep the Tonys". 

 

Updated On: 8/18/16 at 10:28 PM

[10086sunset]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 10:33pm

Look at him alluding to Kinky Boys closing, saying they could likely have the Hirschfeld if they waited until next season.

[Oak2]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 10:42pm

Thank you qolbinau for clarifying/explaining. That makes sense that he'd be more on point with industry predictions of shows coming and castings, especially if he does have inside sources, since that's objective facts - you'd either know it's coming or not. I don't really trust in anyone's ability to accurately predict how well something will do when faced against various audiences, or whether it will win any awards - that's much more subjective, and it's a lot harder to predict the tastes and opinions of people, whose tastes can always change or suddenly surprise you. I guess Riedel's tastes/opinions just tend to clash with that of most of the public? No shame in that, but if so he should at least have the awareness of knowing when his opinion is a general minority. And even if a musical does huge on the West End that doens't mean it will necessarily do just as well on Broadway right? Aren't there plenty of musicals who do great in London but flounder in New York, ,and vice versa?

[aaaaaa15]

Posted: 8/18/16 at 11:22pm

Eh I don't see it sweeping. Yes it got mostly positive reviews and there is buzz in London but that's because we NEVER get high quality musicals originating in London. Arguably, the last one was Matilda, 6 years ago. Whilst the UK theatre boards are generally positive about Groundhog Day, there are still a fair few detractors who didn't think much of it. I don't think the buzz in London is necessarily going to repeat itself in New York (where there are usually at least a couple of quality new musicals each season) and the reviews are no more positive than the off-broadway reviews of Dear Evan Hansen and Natasha Pierre, which are shows that also show a lot more originality. I am seeing Groundhog Day next week so will share more of my thoughts then but at the moment the one aspect of the production that seems to be getting outright raves is Andy Karl, who from what I've heard would have strong competition with Ben Platt.

Updated On: 8/18/16 at 11:22 PM

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 9:43am

I have several close friends who have seen the show, and say it is not good. The UK has a different taste and tolerance for musicals than we do over here. We expect more from them.

 Not to mention the budget is astronomical. So nobody should get their hopes up on this one being a hit.

[Kad]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 9:49am

Riedel is notoriously atrocious at predicting what will be a hit and what will win awards, because he has absolutely no way to successfully gauge that on his industry sources. He is also on the record as saying he likes to stir the pot- his longstanding grudge against Hamilton was a result of him feeling it was getting too much positive press.

There's really no way to know how Groundhog Day will do in NYC until it's here. A Tony sweep, though, even now, seems unlikely. This is no Hamilton.

Updated On: 8/19/16 at 09:49 AM

[macnyc]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 9:51am

Fingers crossed for Lin-Manuel to play the groundhog! 

[Different Drum]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 10:09am

Say what you like about Michael Riedel, but his sources - especially among press agents and talent agents - are impeccable. And his knowledge of the theatre is second to none. He's also correct in his assertion that this season has no favorite. Great Comet and Evan Hansen are not generating any real excitement among the larger Broadway community.

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 10:12am

His sources are impeccable? Are you talking about someone else?

[Kad]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 10:13am

Riedel offers very little in the way of good dish or rumors nowadays. He's scooped by social media half the time.

[gypsy101]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 10:14am

yeah I feel like his endorsement is usually a kiss of death (plus we all know a hit in London does not mean a hit on Broadway) so good luck to Groundhog Day

[tazber]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 10:15am

His sources are wrong most of the time.

 

And Natasha is generating intense buzz.

 

Having said that, all three shows are exceptional, and very different.

 

it's way to early for any predictions. Karl vs. Groban vs. Platt would be some race though.

[South Fl Marc]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 10:17am

He mentions the show may go into the "Schoenfeld". I hate the fact that a Broadway theatre is named after that detestable cretin. Anyone who was responsible for the tearing down of several B'way theatres, incuding the ireplaceable "Helen Hayes" and "Morosco",  should not be given that honor.

[Liza's Headband]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 10:32am

Different Drum said: "Say what you like about Michael Riedel, but his sources - especially among press agents and talent agents - are impeccable. And his knowledge of the theatre is second to none. He's also correct in his assertion that this season has no favorite. Great Comet and Evan Hansen are not generating any real excitement among the larger Broadway community.

 

"

 

Haha! What you say about both Riedel and COMET/DEH couldn't be further from the truth...

[Tom5]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 10:41am

Concerning some comparisons: Book of Mormon was an original. The Producers a near-original - the 1968 movie was mostly forgotten. Groundhog Day can be seen on TV almost every day. Seeing the musical everyone in the audience would  more be making comparisons scene by scene instead of going with the story. If the score is Gershwin class I might be persuaded to see this. Otherwise...

[Eurotrash]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 11:13am

Not sure if this link will work outside the UK; Matt Wolfe of the International New York Times, was on BBC Radio 4 Front Row last night reviewing the show. Says “Andy Karl gives one of those breakout star performances that critics and audience love … the proverbial unknown who goes out and becomes a star.” Can’t wait to see it next week…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07nn8lc#play it’s the first item.

 

[Prisoner of 7th Ave]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 11:50am

Michael Riedel September 12, 2014

You read it here first: The 2016 Tony Award goes to . . . “Bandstand”!

He got a column out of it.  

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 11:53am

Andy Karl, an affable, charming Broadway veteran, is headed for Hugh Jackman-like fame.

 

............really?

[massofmen]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 12:02pm

Hey journalism majors. If you ever wanted to see what a click bait article is please see above. 

[everythingtaboo]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 12:59pm

He's not the only person to say Kinky Boots is on its way out. I've heard from several people in the industry that Kinky's days are numbered. It'll at least go through the holidays, but not through 2017.

90% percent of the reviews for Groundhog Day I've seen have been 4 or 5 star. He's right that it should be a hit here, but it'll be tough with the cost and the size of that theatre. But unless they wait for the Shubert after Hello Dolly, or the Broadway after Miss Saigon, meaning the 2017-2018 season, I guess they'll have to take what they can get. But I think the Schoenfeld's a mistake.

[Skimbleshanks2]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 1:02pm

WiCkEDrOcKS said: "Andy Karl, an affable, charming Broadway veteran, is headed for Hugh Jackman-like fame.

 

............really?

 

"

Somebody hold my earrings...

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 8/19/16 at 2:02pm

I love Andy Karl.  I think he's super talented.  But...Hugh Jackman-like fame? That's (to put it mildly) a stretch.