Something Besides the Strike- 2008 Tony Predictions

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 8:34pm

With all of the talk of the strike and not much else I thought it would be interesting to do some way to early premature Tony Predictions!

Ya I know it is way to early to tell. I know that a lot can happen between now and then. This is just for the fun of it...


Best Musical
Cry Baby
A Catered Affair
Xanadu
In The Heights

Best Actress in a Musical
Jenna Russell - Sunday In The Park With George
Faith Prince - A Catered Affair
Kerry Butler - Xanadu
Patti LuPone - Gypsy
Sierra Boggess - The Little Mermaid
Possible: Kelli O'Hara or Sutton Foster

Best Actor in a Musical
Daniel Evans - Sunday....George
Lin-Manuel Miranda (he is the lead actor right?)- In The Heights
James Snyder- Cry Baby
Cheyenne Jackson- Xanadu
Roger Bart- Young Frankenstein
Possible: Paolu Szot- South Pacific

Best Supporting Actor in a Musical
Harvey Fierstein- A Catered Affair
Chester Gregory II- Cry Baby
Titus Burgess- The Little Mermaid
Christopher Fitzgerald- Young Frankenstein
Tom Wopat- A Catered Affair

Best Supporting Actress in a Musical
Sherie Rene Scott- The Little Mermaid
Andrea Martin- Young Frankenstein
Laura Benanti- Gypsy
Leslie Kritzer- A Catered Affair
Harriet Harris- Cry Baby
Possible: Megan Mullaly

Best Choreography
Rob Ashford- Cry Baby
Susan Stroman- Young Frankenstein
Andy Blankenbuehler- In The Heights
Stephen Mear- The Little Mermaid

Best Director of a Musical
Mark Brokaw- Cry Baby
John Doyle- A Catered Affair
Chris Ashley- Xanadu
Sam Buntrock- Sunday In The Park With George

Best Score
Cry Baby
A Catered Affair
In The Heights
Young Frankenstein

Best Book of a Musical
A Catered Affair
In The Heights
Cry Baby
Xanadu

[MargoChanning]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 8:40pm

Absolutely zero nominations for PASSING STRANGE?

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 8:56pm

I could see Passing Strange getting a nomination for Best Musical over Xanadu.

I don't know enough about the show or the actors/parts in the shows to determine which category the actors would be in. I could also easily see it get in for Best Score over Young Frankenstein.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 8:57pm

Select Categories -

Revival of a Musical - Gypsy, South Pacific, Sunday in the Park

Actress in a Musical - Jenna Russell, Kelli O'Hara, Kerry Butler, Patti LuPone, Faith Prince

Actor in a Musical - Daniel Evans, Paulo Szot, Tom Wopat, Lin Manuel Miranda, Cheyenne Jackson

Actor Play - Bobby Cannavale, Nathan Lane, Kevin Kline, Jimmi Simpson, Moran Freeman

Actress Play - S. Ephatha Merkerson, Deanna Dugen, Jennifer Garner, Claire Danes, Rosie Perez

Featured Actor/Actress in Play/Musical Mix - Amy Morton, Boyd Gaines (Gypsy and Pygmalion), Laura Benanti, F. Murray Abraham, Andrea Martin, Christopher Fitzgerald, Brooks Ashmanskas, Sherie Rene Scott, Raul Esparza, Harriet Harris

And my bet to win Best Set Design of a Play - Old Acquaintance

[BroadwayBaby6]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 9:02pm

Neddy, I think you're mostly right on the money....although I don't think Catered Affair will get nominated for best musical. The cast is well deserving of nominations and the show is well directed but the whole is less than the some of its parts.


Margot, Passing Strange will probably get a nomination for best lighting.

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 9:05pm

I would think that Tom Wopat would be considered Featured but that role is a real tough call.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 9:31pm

BEST MUSICAL

A Catered Affair - The only thing standing in the way of a lock are terrible reviews

In the Heights - Contemporary, got good reviews Off-Broadway, and re-writes are coming

Cry-Baby - Very good reviews out of town; only a few tweaks here and there and we've got an almost lock.

Passing Strange OR Xanadu - Small Show Vs. Small Show. Passing Strange, I think, has a small advantage because it got raves Off-Broadway whereas Xanadu got very positive's. But you never know.


BEST PLAY

Rock 'n' Roll - Tom Stoppard. Great reviews. 'Nuff said. Unless a lot more plays get raves

August: Osage County - Great word of mouth and great reviews outside New York

Is He Dead? - It's Mark Twain, and they'll want to give a nomination to a comedy to break up the fog of serious in this field

The Seafarer - Conor McPherson is a well-respected playwright and, even if this play is headed straight for the box-office bomb field, I think it's pretty safe.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

John Bucchino, A Catered Affair
Linn-Manuel Miranda, In the Heights
Stew and Heidi Rodewald, Passing Strange
Adam Schlesinger, David Javerbaum, Cry-Baby

This is going to be a great year for original scores - every single nominee is a new musical composer to Broadway (unless Schlesinger's done something I don't know about)

Updated On: 11/19/07 at 09:31 PM

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 9:33pm

Best Musical
XANADU
IN THE HEIGHTS
A CATERED AFFAIR
CRY-BABY

Best Book
XANADU
IN THE HEIGHTS
A CATERED AFFAIR
CRY-BABY

Best Original Score
IN THE HEIGHTS
A CATERED AFFAIR
CRY-BABY
PASSING STRANGE

Best Leading Actor In A Musical
Lin-Manuel Miranda, IN THE HEIGHTS
Cheyenne Jackson, XANADU
Daniel Evans, SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE
Tom Wopat, A CATERED AFFAIR
James Snyder, CRY-BABY

Best Leading Actress In A Musical
Kerry Butler, XANADU
Faith Prince, A CATERED AFFAIR
Harriet Harris, CRY-BABY
Jenna Russell, SUNDAY IN THE PARK WITH GEORGE
Sutton Foster, YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN

Best Featured Actor In A Musical
Christopher Fitzgerald, YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN
Robin De Jesus, IN THE HEIGHTS
Shuler Hensley, YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN
Harvey Fierstein, A CATERED AFFAIR
Boyd Gaines, GYPSY

Best Featured Actress In A Musical
Karen Olivo, IN THE HEIGHTS
Laura Benanti, GYPSY
Sherie Rene Scott, THE LITTLE MERMAID
Marilyn Caskey, GYPSY
Loretta Ables Sayre, SOUTH PACIFIC

[Dirty_Rotten_Guy]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 9:39pm

Not just because I'm a fan of hers, but I could see Alison Pill getting a Tony nomination for Leading Actress in a Play over someone like say, Claire Danes, who I found great, but nothing spectacular in PYGMALION. I think Alison gives a bit deeper of a performance, if you ask me- but then again, it could just be the role.

[somethingwicked]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 10:17pm

Wanna Be A Foster, as unconventional an idea as it may seem, the producers of YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN are pushing Megan Mullally for Lead Actress and Sutton Foster for Featured.

[Heybeenfood]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 10:20pm

Not enough love for The Seafarer. Every actor on that stage deserved an award.

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 10:20pm

Are you serious?

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 10:24pm

Does anyone else think Russel's and Evans' chances might be hurt because their show closes before the Tonys?

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 10:26pm

What I think could hurt them more is that they are both from the same show.

How often does the Leading Actor and Actress award go to people from the same show?

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 10:31pm

In recent years, Best Actress and Actor has gone to people in the same show three times:

2003 (Marisa Jaret Winokur and Harvey Fierstein; Hairspray)
1998 (Natasha Richardson and Alan Cumming; Cabaret)
1997 (Bebe Neuwirth and James Naughton; Chicago)

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 10:32pm

Hairspray.

Harvey and Marissa.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 10:33pm

Does anyone else think Russel's and Evans' chances might be hurt because their show closes before the Tonys?

Not only that, but the fact that they're both newbie imports who will likely be up against Broadway vets (the ones I have in mind are Faith Prince and Tom Wopat), it may stand in their way of winning.

Think of Eve Best, who was in the same situation last season. She gave a marvelous Broadway debut performance, but the award went to the actress who had been a New York fixture for years, giving an equally wonderful performance, in a new play no less.

Regarding new roles vs. old roles, something Russell and Evans may have against them is the fact that they are reviving roles, while others like Faith Prince and Tom Wopat are creating roles from scratch. I think that definitely gives Prince, Wopat, and any other performer creating a new role an advantage.

Look at:
LuPone vs. LaChanze.
Cerveris vs. Young.
Best vs. White.
Esparza vs. Pierce.

Updated On: 11/19/07 at 10:33 PM

[jake6970]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 10:35pm

And McDonald vs. Ebersole. (yes, I think Audra deserved the Tony)

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 11/19/07 at 11:28pm

I think Faith Prince will be putting up some tough competition.

I don't know why, but I can see Jenna winning before Daniel wins.

This years toughest category looks like it is Best Featured Actress Musical.

Most of the shows this year are female driven and it looks like it is a weaker year for men.

[BroadwayBaby6]

Posted: 11/20/07 at 12:08am

I don't see Catered Affair winnng many Tonys. (Sorry, NeddyFrank)

Yes, it has 3 amazing performances by Leslie Kritser, Faith Prince and Tom Wopat but the book is anachronistic and Bucchino's score is unexceptional.
I don't get the feeling that the creative team wants to change the show very much from its San Diego incarnation. I know that Harvey can write a much better book and that John Bucchino can write amazing songs- at lesat one memorable song like "GRATEFUL" (his well known cabaret song) could do wonders to the show.

I do feel, however, that the creative team has chose to ignore the harsh BUT CONSTRUCTIVE criticism in the LA Times review.

Mr. Fierstein and co. should go back to the drawing board rather than attack the LA Times reviewer.

OKAY, I KNOW you will flame me for this but I had to say it!

[neddyfrank2]

Posted: 11/20/07 at 12:19am

I strongly disagree.

I could see a TONY for Faith, Book, Featured Actor for Tom Wopat, POSSIBLY Score, and POSSIBLY Best Direction.

It will win at LEAST one Tony.

[BroadwayBaby6]

Posted: 11/20/07 at 12:39am

Neddy, I agree with Catered Affair nominations for Faith, Leslie and Tom Wopat. Maybe even a Tony nomination for direction, but SCORE???

Neddy, no one wanted to love Catered Affair more than I did. I worship the ground Leslie Kritser walks on and I L-O-V-E John Bucchino's previous work. I don't know what happenned with this show but Bucchino's score, as it now stands, is completely uninspired. Not one song in the entire show came close to matching the very high level of every song in his compilation "GRATEFUL"....Not one song....I was so bummed...

Opinions on the book can be subjective but I have yet to hear one person rave about the score in "CATERED AFFAIR"....

Can the show be fixed? absolutely- lighten the book and write a couple of hit songs...Will it be fixed? doesn't look like it from reading Harvey's attacks on the LA Times reviewer.

I am not writing this out of bitchiness. I Hope this show succeeds- I want the creative team to revise the show and make it work...

San Diego audiences are NOT necessarily a good gauge of what will succeed on Broadway. Imaginary Friends and Last Confederate Widow received standing ovations at the Globe and we all know how those fared on Broadway. It's easier to read and believe the good notices than to read and take heed from the bad notices....

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 11/20/07 at 12:57am

I haven't seen the show yet but I have to agree with BroadwayBaby that Fierstein's response to the LA Times review was so defensive and childish that it failed to address the fact that his show as it stands in its out-of-town try-out may not be fully cooked. How many of the classics got mixed reviews out of town and were fixed once they reached Broadway? How many flops received positive notices out-of-town and failed to succeed in New York?
I think nowadays having an out-of-town try-out has become somewhat obsolete. Gone are the days of making solid changes to improve a show, bringing in objective third-parties to doctor the shows, or making the appropriate cast changes.

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 11/20/07 at 1:08am

I think nowadays having an out-of-town try-out has become somewhat obsolete. Gone are the days of making solid changes to improve a show, bringing in objective third-parties to doctor the shows, or making the appropriate cast changes.

So what are they supposed to do? Should every show premiere in New York like MERRILY WE ROLL ALONG?

Or did you mean that the crew just won't listen to outside advice? If so, then those people are just a bit stupid.

[broadwayman17]

Posted: 11/20/07 at 1:12am

Musical:
A Catered Affair
Cry-Baby
In the Heights
Passing Strange

Play:
Is He Dead?
Rock and Roll
The Farnsworth Invention
November

Revival Musical:
Gypsy
South Pacific
Sunday in the Park with George
*Guys and Dolls* (if actually coming)

Revival Play:
Cyrano De Bergerac
The Homecoming
The Country Girl
The Ritz

Book:
Cry Baby
A Catered Affair
Xanadu
In The Heights

Score:
In The Heights
Passing Strange
Cry Baby
A Catered Affair

Best Actor Musical:
James Snyder
Cheyenne Jackson
Lin-Manuel Miranda
Daniel Evans
Tom Wopat

Best Actress Musical:
Kerry Butler
Faith Prince
Patti Lupone
Jenna Russell
Sutton Foster

Best Featured Actor:
Chris Fitzgerald
Harvey Fierstien
Boyd Gaines
Christopher Hanke
Chester Gregory II

Best Featured Actress:
Leslie Kritzer
Sherie Rene Scott
Laura Benanti
Andrea Martin
Harriet Harris
*possibly Mary Testa or Jackie Hoffman

Updated On: 11/20/07 at 01:12 AM