Spring Awakening...Does it have a chance?

[wickedfiyeroofoz]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:02pm

So I saw the show yesterday. Words really cant describe how fantastic it really was. But I'm not here to give a review. I was just wondering,assuming its still up and running by tony time, what are the chances it'll win best new musical?

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:05pm

January will be tough, even with the rave reviews.

[educator06]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:12pm

Spring Awakening will be open I'm sure. They are still working on filling the Eugene O'Neil however. As all of the critics have said, this is an important new work and good for Broadway. I know I'm rooting for it, "it is so damn good"!
As for best musical, NO CONTEST... (yet)

[FOAnatic]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:18pm

I wouldn't be so sure about the "NO CONTEST."

I'm sure it's a great show and I can't wait to see it. But, SPRING AWAKENING is hardly the lead contender.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:20pm

Well, it's very a different kind of show. I believe it's a defining show on Broadway, a show that marks this generation even if it's not perfect. I'm sure come Tony time, people will take that into consideration.

~Steven

[TomMonster]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:23pm

As much as I loved SPRING, I still think GREY GARDENS has the edge. We've had ties in the past, though...

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:25pm

Yes, and still the right show didn't win that year.

~Steven

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:29pm

It will certainly garner a nomination, along with GREY GARDENS.

That leaves two available slots for the other Best Musical nominees.

We can count THE TIMES THEY ARE A'CHANGIN' and HIGH FIDELITY out, and I'm not sure that MARTIN SHORT will get one of the remaining two slots, and the same goes for THE GRINCH.

That leaves us with:

MARY POPPINS
THE PIRATE QUEEN
LEGALLY BLONDE
LOVEMUSIK
CURTAINS

Personally, I think they are all viable contendors. While I certainly think GREY GARDENS is the best musical of this season so far, I wouldn't be surprised if the league went with CURTAINS or MARY POPPINS.

[FOAnatic]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:32pm

Agreed, munk.

It's pretty much about the show that has the largest appeal and is the most "tourable."

And I don't see SPRING AWAKENING doing very well in the red states.

Updated On: 12/17/06 at 06:32 PM

[Becoz_i_knew_you21]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:34pm

I think Spring Awakening and Grey Gardens are pretty much locks for best musical nominations.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:35pm

What about Rent? Some states wouldn't even show the movie version.

~Steven

[TomMonster]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:35pm

Munk, you really think GRINCH has a chance at a nom slot? I really can't see that happening.

I think CURTAINS and POPPINS have a good chance to fill-up the slots. Has the committee decided on a 4 slot or 5 slot race? It's a pretty heavy year, and I don't recall if they've ever had 5 in the slot before.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:37pm

No, Tom, I ruled out THI GRINCH along with MARTIN SHORT.

[McFrenzied]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:39pm

Yes, YankeeFan is right. January is tough on all shows, but mostly on those new shows that don't have broad brand name recognition yet. They need to push hard in January and use up some advertising dollars. But that's actually a subject that should be put in the other thread...

As to its Tony chances, I think they're very very good. I'm assuming that Grey Gardens and Spring Awakening are a lock. Mary Poppins' chances of a nomination are good too, even if it's just to get greater TV ratings. The fourth will go to either Legally Blonde, or LoveMusik (even though their score isn't original). The 20% that are made up of touring Tony voters won't vote for Grey Gardens as the show can't tour without its two stars. They'll all go with Legally Blonde. The core Tony voters, though, usually vote for art over commercialized dreck (look at Passion beating Beauty and the Beast and Ave Q beating Wicked). They might split over SA and Grey Gardens, but they are usually swayed by critical response and right now, SA is the only one with unanimous critical raves. Most important, is that SA is the only one of these that represents a new direction for Broadway and not the same old same old. Things may change, but right now, I think SA is the frontrunner.

[FOAnatic]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:42pm

The core Tony voters, though, usually vote for art over commercialized dreck

False. Look at the year THE PRODUCERS won...or the year SPAMALOT won. Not that those shows are dreck...but FAR more commercial compared to their opponents.

Don't assume.

[Becoz_i_knew_you21]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:44pm

I'm really hoping SA will get best musical! Like McFrenzied said, its reviews have been unanimous critical raves.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:45pm

I can't see LEGALLY BLONDE being a realistic choice for Best Musical.

I also don't agree that the female roles in GREY GARDENS are not re-castable. Regardless, the producers would greatly benefit from trying to get some kind of touring contract signed with the ladies now, even if it's for a small 10 city tour.

[TomMonster]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:47pm

Sorry, Munk, my feable brain didn't see the word "not" in that sentence! hehehe.

[purpleprince101]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 6:59pm

Spring Awakening
Mary Poppins
Grey Gardens
curtains
Pirate queen or love musiq

[MargoChanning]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 7:04pm

The Tonys haven't had 5 slots for the Best Musical race since 1960 when Sound of Music and Fiorello tied, beating out Gypsy, Take Me Along and Once Upon A Mattress, so you can count on there only being 4 slots this year.

The road voters (and a certain percentage of the voters in town) often tend to go for the most commercial entry with most touring potential for Best Musical over the more "artistic" choices, which they tend to reward with a consolation prize like Best Book and/or Best Score -- notice how many Best Musical winners in recent years didn't win at least one of those awards (Millie, Spamalot, Jersey Boys, Contact, Fosse, Lion King).

Based on that, I definitely wouldn't count out Mary Poppins just yet (and would not be surprised AT ALL if it ended up winning Best Musical). Not saying that that's my preference or anything, but after watching the Tonys for 30+ years, I've learned not expect them to do the right thing or award their biggest prize to something truly groundbreaking, challenging, innovative or even interesting.

[TomMonster]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 7:10pm

Thanks, Margo!

I wouldn't be surprised if POPPINS takes it. (I had a great time at it, so I wouldn't be too upset, either.)

I'd prefer GARDENS or SPRING, but such is life...

[Rathnait62]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 7:11pm

The problem with GREY GARDENS would not be casting. Those roles could be recast, and Wilson might even tour with it.

The problem is it's not exactly a mass-appeal show. The marketing would have to be massive.

[purpleprince101]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 7:12pm

but after seeing all of the new musicals out as of right now mary poppins was the best in my opinion. grey gardens wasn't that good but c.e's performence was fantastic. spring awakening was good but isn't in my top 10. so margo you are right, sometimes the tonys do not do the right thing.

[McFrenzied]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 7:16pm

Question for anyone here: When Disney does a tour, do the tony presenters benefit from it? Isn't it all funded by Disney's deep pockets and don't the proceeds go directly back to Disney? They may benefit by having Disney rent their house and give their subscribers a big hit to see, but wouldn't Disney take a much bigger chunk of their profits than they would normally get?

[broadwayguy2]

Posted: 12/17/06 at 7:19pm

why would disney get more of a percentage than other producers booking their show into the house? the higher the ticket sales, the more the host theatre makes... just like ANY producer. And saying you have the newest Tony winnings how helps sales.