TONY Time: ONCE versus NEWSIES

[CukorLover]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 10:54pm

I know that it's early to call, but considering the nice reviews for ONCE thus far, and the terrific reviews for NEWSIES at Papermill, it's likely to be a tug of war between the two very different animals.

Unless of course, NICE WORK miraculously ascends above the embarrassing rehearsal footage.

[jv92]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:01pm

It is too early to call. On a personal note, I'd rather see NEWSIES win. It's a highly enjoyable, entertaining, energetic (a lot of "E" words there, sorry) show. It's rather wonderful, I think.

ONCE, which I saw at a preview, was rather turgid. I'm not one to always agree with Michael Riedel, but on a recent Theater Talk, he mercilessly made fun of the show with a fake Irish accent, etc., complaining about the same-ness of all the songs, etc. And you know what? He got it right.

If the industry wants to congratulate itself for looking "intelligent", ONCE will probably win.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:01pm

I'm happy if either show wins but I think Once will edge Newsies for the win, think Newsies will win Best Choreography.

[blaxx]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:04pm

When it comes to the award for Best Musical, they haved rarely picked a well reviewed and received intimate/sophisticated piece over a well reviewed and received crowd pleaser. This is specially true in recent years, with very few exceptions.

As to the nominators and voters both have enough merit, it is likely they would go for the more profitable one.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:05pm

Newsies didn't exactly get "terrific" reviews while at Papermill.

[jv92]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:06pm

blaxx, What about SPRING AWAKENING as a "a well reviewed and received intimate/sophisticated piece?"

[blaxx]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:10pm

Yes, love, I did say there were a few exceptions. In that year, however, Grey Gardens would have been the more intimate/sophisticated piece vs. the flashy and angsty Emo musical.

[blaxx]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:18pm

Memphis over Fela!, The Book of Mormon over The Scottsboro Boys, Billy Elliot over Next to Normal, In The Heights over Passing Strange, Spamalot over Piazza, Millie over Urinetown, etc.

Something like Avenue Q over Wicked needed an extreme campaign effort from its producers. A major upset like that is rare.

[jv92]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:19pm

Ah yes. I see where you're coming from.

[CukorLover]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:20pm

Great recap Blaxx- thanks for that !

[blaxx]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:21pm

Let's see how critics treat Newsies. If they're generous enough, I don't see them not getting the award at this point.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:27pm

Newsies doesn't really need awards to be successful but I don't think people will be too upset if it does win best new musical.

I think the reviews will be mixed positive, which it'll be a step up from the reviews they got for Tarzan and Mermaid. It is sort of the opposite of the Disney shows that they produced in that it's not big and flashy.
Updated On: 3/18/12 at 11:27 PM

[kyl3fong2]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:34pm

What are the other musicals that you guys think will be getting Best Musical nominations this year?

[blaxx]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:39pm

It's hard to tell without reviews. Nice Work hasn't even started previews, we know little about it.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:42pm

I saw NEWSIES this evening. It's good (so-so first act, great second act) and safe family entertainment. It's nothing spectacular, but I'm sure it'll be a big hit. But ONCE is by far the better show. It's wildly entertaining and it also makes you feel something. And those are two very rare qualities for any musical to have. I'm pretty positive NEWSIES will win, but ONCE absolutely, positively deserves it more.

[blaxx]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:43pm

I'm pretty positive NEWSIES will win, but ONCE absolutely, positively deserves it more.

That defines the Tonys for the past 12-15 years.

[SondheimFan5]

Posted: 3/18/12 at 11:50pm

Newsies will CERTAINLY have the votes of the regional theatre owners across the country, because it is such a crowd-pleaser. If that means anything...

Once is a well-crafted and touching smaller piece but it probably needs the award more than Newsies dies (similar to the N2N/BE season).

No saying which is better because I have yet to see either, but I have a feeling that it'll pretty much be a tie, unless NICE WORK, GHOST, or LEAP OF FAITH do miraculous things that nobody is expecting. Only time will tell...

Updated On: 3/18/12 at 11:50 PM

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 3/19/12 at 12:39am

I have actually agreed with the Tony committee for most of their choices for best musical. The only decision that I absolutely positively disagreed with one hundred percent was Spamalot over Light in the Piazza or Dirty Rotten Scoundrels. I have not seen anything this season yet, but it seems like the race is EXTREMELY close... I am not too fond of the cast recording for Once. I have not seen the show itself so I'm not sure if it works better in the context of the show or not, but I was slightly let down. It will be interesting to see what happens in June!

[winston89]

Posted: 3/19/12 at 12:49am

The only new musicals of the season that I have seen are Once and Ghost. So, I can't comment about Once V Newsies as I haven't seen Newsies yet. However, one thought that I was having was the fact that the touring/regional houses get a good size vote. With that being said, I was wondering if the fact that Disney said that they were bringing the show to Broadway to make more money off of licensing have an impact on the votes. That that sounds like they have made it clear that post Broadway the show is going on the amateur circuit rather than the touring one.

Too bad though that Once can't be nominated for best score though. Because I feel that that is a surefire win for them if they could.

[SondheimFan5]

Posted: 3/19/12 at 1:32am

I know they are planning a tour of Newsies. The original plan was also to do a tour after Papermill, but then they decided on Broadway.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 3/19/12 at 1:34am

I'm sure Disney will tour Newsies, if the show's making money on Broadway then they'd be mad not to have a touring production especially as it's fairly low cost to set up anyway.

[chewy5000]

Posted: 3/19/12 at 3:39am

Nice Work will probably pick up the "Most Choreography" award

[broadwayriff]

Posted: 3/19/12 at 5:59am

How about a more interesting prediction EVITA vs. Follies

[After Eight]

Posted: 3/19/12 at 5:59am

"I saw NEWSIES this evening. It's good (so-so first act, great second act) and safe family entertainment. It's nothing spectacular, but I'm sure it'll be a big hit. But ONCE is by far the better show. It's wildly entertaining and it also makes you feel something. And those are two very rare qualities for any musical to have. I'm pretty positive NEWSIES will win, but ONCE absolutely, positively deserves it more."

I completely disagree.

Newsies is no great shakes, but it is heads and shoulders superior to the excruciating glop and slop slog of Once. And so is Ghost, for that matter.

[castlestreet]

Posted: 3/19/12 at 10:05am

I think blaxx pretty much hit the nail on the head- unless Newsies gets some really mixed reviews, I would have a hard time seeing a small show like Once overcoming a show like Newsies that will tour well.

Wasn't it the lead producer of Spamalot that famously, or infamously held up his wallet at the pre-Tony gathering with the Tour Promoters who vote and reminded them to "vote their wallets" so as to avoid another Avenue Q over Wicked. That was the year that Light in the Piazza won a lot of Tony Awards, but the one that really counts when promoting a show on the road went to Spamalot. Food for thought.