The Sweeney Todd Box Office Tracking thread — Page 5

Well for what its worth, the Academy ballots weren't mailed out until today, meaning most won't be arriving until tomorrow or Friday, so almost all voters will still have the SWEENEY screener in hand before they fill out ballots.

SWEENEY will definitely get some tech nods.

If it doesn't get a Best Picture nomination it will be because not enough AMPAS voters selected it as their top movie of the year (on the initial nomination ballot, members can pick only 1 film). The way its set up, you can't really deliberately "snub" a movie for the top nomination.

Everyone loves to talk about the importance of screeners, and how if screeners aren't mailed early enough, they get lost in the shuffle, etc. But the truth is, the voters work pretty much the same way you would if you were to receive 50 different dvds in the mail. They go through and pull out the most interesting, buzzed about films to watch first, which is why I don't necessarily think screeners do that much to help performances or movies that aren't already heavily buzzed.

Voters also rely heavily on what their other industry friends say is good, important, worthy, etc., since nobody has time to watch all the movies.

The other side of that, is that a healthy amount of AMPAS voters let their ballots be filled out by assistants, neighbors, friends, the mailman (I kid you not) etc. But thats another story.

Updated On: 12/27/07 at 11:58 PM

Yeah, as Bennett said, it doesn't seem likely to get a Best Picture nod, because I personally can't imagine people selecting this as their their one choice for Best Picture (which is how the nominations work).

Depp seems to be the best shot for a nomination, aside from technical awards.

And again, Bennett you're right about the screeners. In fact, they are more likely to watch Sweeney than other films, because of the huge buzz its been getting from every side. So, I doubt it can be a victim of not being seen.

I agree that Depp has a good chance. I really think that Helena deserves a nomination too!

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I saw this at a matinee in Dallas on Christmas Eve and there were about 60 in the audience. No one that I saw walked out of the theater.

Yesterday (12/26) I saw it in a smallish town in East TX and there must have been more than one hundred for a matinee showing. It actually was hard to find a decent seat (we got there before the trailers started). The audience was a mix of 20-30's to older couples. No one walked out of this performance.

Clearly "buzz" is building for this movie, as often seems the case with musicals. I expect the numbers to actually be better this week, based on what I have seen.

Actually, the Oscar ballots have five blank lines on them. They are numbered. It looks like this:

BEST PICTURE:

1. _________
2. _________
3. _________
4. _________
5. _________


When you nominate you are allowed to put down five films, but the rules make it clear that your first choice ALONE will be tallied for a nomination. The other choices, ranked according to your preference, will be used only to break ties, if there are any, in the nominations.

This assures that there will never be more than 5 nominees for this category.

Everyone with "voting privileges" in the Academy receives the nomination ballot for Best Picture. Then, they receive a separate ballot in a separate envelope for their own "branch." So actors get an acting ballot, directors get a directing ballot, etc.

The actors' ballot looks like this:

BEST ACTOR:

1. _________
2. _________
3. _________
4. _________
5. _________

BEST ACTRESS:

1. _________
2. _________
3. _________
4. _________
5. _________

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. _________
2. _________
3. _________
4. _________
5. _________

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. _________
2. _________
3. _________
4. _________
5. _________

That's it. No suggestions of "who to put where," as far as categories. Just blank lines. And the same rules apply as the ones for Best Picture. Your first choice counts. The rest are used only to break ties in each category.

If an actor receives enough votes in BOTH categories (i.e. Best Actor AND Best Supporting Actor) for the same performance, he will get the nomination for the one that had the most #1 votes, and the other nomination will be disqualified.

When it comes time to vote for the actual awards, the entire voting membership of the Academy gets a full ballot. They can vote for all awards listed. One vote only in each category. If they pick two in a category, whether intentional or not, the entire ballot is disqualified.

Some categories require that you see ALL films eligible, for example the short film categories. You have to attend Academy screenings where they show all the nominated films, and then you vote on the spot. I believe you can also request a form/affidavit that will allow you to vote in those categories.

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Updated On: 12/27/07 at 04:29 PM

The system hasn't changed, but the reason why everyone's top matters so much is because of how it's scored.

The #1 pick is scored the higest, and each number less and less. So, from what I understand, a film is most likely to be in the top five with the highest scores if they have a rabid fan base putting the film as #1. As for "Dreamgirls", it may have been #3 on everyone's list, but that won't get a film nominated. It has to be #1, or maybe #2, on a bunch of lists...

So, "Sweeney" just needs an Academy fan base and it will be in.

Hopefully. We'll see.

Updated On: 12/28/07 at 10:12 PM

Do you understand that the movie has not fully expanded yet?

By the end of Friday it will have made 20 million. That's almost half of the budget back in the first week of limited release. That's not bad.

Updated On: 12/28/07 at 10:13 AM

I didn't realize they were adding more theatres at this point. When does that happen?

...And you can add another $35 to $45 million in there for putting Johnny Depp's big head everywhere.

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Plus it won't be released in the UK until late January. I'm betting it will be a huge smash there, where Sweeney Todd is a household name and people have actually heard of the legend.

I think it will end up being a success.

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I'm glad you're optimistic, phantom, and I wish it well. Even though I had some problems with it, it's a GOOD film musical, and I really want its performance to encourage the studios to make more musical films. I'm rooting for it to succeed, financially.

But people don't go to movies like they used to. Hit films used to run for many months in the theatres, not weeks. They also didn't used to release films in anywhere NEAR as many theatres simultaneously as they do today.

The strategy now is to open a movie in a HUGE amount of theatres. Make your killing fast, and fade away quickly. With everyone so "connected" these days via cell phones, the Internet, TV, etc., word-of-mouth is almost instantaneous. The "slow trickle" just doesn't happen much, if at all anymore. Plus, we have a nation of impatient Americans. They don't wait months to see a film in the theatres. They have ADD, and once they've left the darkened theatre the majority of patrons are already asking, "What's next?" That's why I don't hold much hope for boffo box office on Sweeney. Once I saw the initial numbers, I predicted (earlier in this thread, I think) that its domestic intake will be somewhere between $40 million and $50 million total.

Sadly... I still believe this to be likely.

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Well normally, I would agree with what Best12 says that in this day and age, the "slow trickle" effect isn't what it used to be - but the exception often is films that open Christmas, which historically have continued to play well into January, when they open wide, and as award season goes into full swing and not as many new films open.

A lot of SWEENEY's future will be decided by Warner Brother's faith in the product. THE PRODUCERS did such dismal box office business, largely because the studio behind it decided to cut their losses and give it only a marginal theatrical release.

Even earlier this year, ACROSS THE UNIVERSE began to find an audience after mixed reviews, but Sony decided not to give it the kind of marketing push that could have kept it around for a while and pulled it out of rotation just as it was generating some heat.

I think the truth is most films do make back money - through dvd sales, cable distribution, etc. and often times it really is the studio that decides the upfront fates of some of their movies. They are often the impatient ones, and more often than not would just assume see their movies go to quick home viewing release, since thats where the real money is.