The Sweeney Todd Box Office Tracking thread — Page 3

28% is rather shockingly bad guys… Let’s see what happens next week.

I can't believe people really DIDN'T know this was a musical. Many of the TV spots had singing. What the hell did they think that meant?

There really are some ignorant idiots in this country.

Actually Hollywood Elsewhere's Wells is far from an idiot. He can be an ass, but he has great sources and is often correct.

The actual estimates (BoxOfficeMojo.com, etc) will be released this afternoon, and the final count tomorrow. We'll see... (PS- I've always found Fantasy Moguls to be based more on guessing, though in this case I'd prefer THEM to be correct.)

I agree with your thought, phantom. Remember the first day Rent was out in wide release? It was second only to Harry Potter that day, but the whole Thanksgiving weekend, it ended up at about 5th. Granted a) Rent opened on Wednesday of Thanksgiving week, b) Sweeney is a much better musical, and c) Sweeney is a much better movie, too.

The estimated top 10 list on IMDB puts it at 5th, just over a quarter mill behind Charlie Wilson's War. Seeing as how it opened on less than half as many screens as any other movie in the top 9, I'd say that's not too shabby.




IMDB.com/chart

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Updated On: 12/23/07 at 02:41 PM

These BO sites are all full of crap - yet, it's amusing that everyone wants to believe one over the other. The film DID suffer a huge drop-off on Saturday, which is why you can NEVER predict from a Friday gross and why people insist on playing that game is anyone's guess - or CARE about playing that game, which is even more curious to me. See the movie - like it, hate it, love it - the box office will be the box office.

The fact is, the marketing was bad - overdone (what else is new), overhyped, sending people on to websites early with all those posts using the same exact wording about what a great movie it is, but most importantly not stressing in their trailers that it's a full-out musical. Because those who are deriding it and laughing when the singing starts and walking out are, sadly, typical. But, more importantly, they feel like they were sucker-punched by the marketing (let's face it - today's audiences thought they were going to see a big-budget Depp/Burton film - doesn't matter if they haven't been paying attention), and nothing creates worse word of mouth than people who think they've been sucker-punched.

I believe Paramount is already back-pedaling and saying nine mil for the weekend - it's not a horrible gross, but it's not great, either, and I think it's pretty clear that Christmas was a mistake, opening-wise, and that it isn't going to go UP in subsequent weeks - not how the movie business works these days. And if the word of mouth and drops continue, the wider January release won't do much to help. They should have bit the bullet and either had the guts to release it in 3000 theaters, or they should have platformed it and started out in a few theaters, got the reviews, and then went wide.

Lots of valid points in this thread. Yes, I agree with the comparison to RENT (strong fan base who ran out to see it opening day) and with those who question the idea of this being a Christmas release.

I no longer think the film will break 100 million, but I think it will do better than RENT (I'd say 60-70 million). The drop next weekened will be severe, but I do think the movie has a few Golden Globe wins in its future and that should keep the film around for a bit. Should it earn some major Oscar noms - that could bump box office as well.

SWEENEY has always been a tough sell. The mistake we all made was thining that the Depp/Burton combo could possibly make it a mainstream property (i.e. box office smash).

The material has never been mainstream, and hasn't exactly lit up the box office in any of its Broadway incarnation.

But the overall reviews were excellent and the film will find its fan base.

Updated On: 12/23/07 at 06:13 PM

Dear Phantom, methinks it is you who needs to chill. You love the movie - that's great. Many will, and many won't. If the budget is fifty mil and it does less than 100 mil, it most certainly will NOT make back its costs, at least not from the theatrical release - people act as if this movie JUST cost fifty mil - and conveniently forget the twenty to thirty mil they've spent on promotion, prints and advertising. In the end, it will do what it does and those who love it will buy the DVD and have orgasmic reactions every night, and those who don't won't.

I think the marketing team made a lot of serious errors in judgment and I do not say this in hindsight, since I've been saying it ever since I saw their approach, which was to a) keep most of the musical things out of the trailer and sell it as a Depp/Burton film, and b) try to have their cake and eat it, too, by inundating every theater website and chat board with those advance postings, which, as I've said, were most amusing, as they all used exactly the same language.

Everyone forgets the lesson of Chicago - whatever you happen to think of that film (I'm in the middle), it snuck up and took everyone by surprise. They did not overhype it and shove it down people's throats. They let it find its audience, then built out from there. That's the reason it's done better than any screen musical made subsequent to it.

Well, given the number of reported walkouts from kiddies who had NO CLUE it was a full-out musical, I'd say you were not so correct. Chicago didn't do much of anything in advance of its platformed opening. They let the film get the reviews and people found it and that was that.

The average theater goer (and the general audience member who this film is marketed towards) has never even HEARD of Sweeney Todd! Barely any of the TV spots even hinted that this was a musical. I only saw one that had any singing and it was only the little section from "Epiphany". Most people don't watch every interview about something and many don't go looking up films on IMDB or BroadwayWorld. You're giving the general public a bit to much credit. However it's not their fault, it's the marketing department.

I think it will get a big push after the holiday from the Depp fangirls, but as a whole, it probably won't end up doing that well at all. This film is a really hard sell: a gory movie musical by Depp and Burton! Individually on paper it's appealing to many different types of theatergoers however when put together, it's almost impossible to really please a vast amount of people besides the fans of the musical itself.

Personally I loved it and put it in my top three movie musicals of the last decade.

I agree that the marketing for this movie was a joke. I thought the third "whimsical" trailer that ran here in the U.S. with the light tone and the Harry-Potterish voice-over showed me just how "off" they were in their deceitful approach. And I was met with some ludicrous resistance and defense from a poster or two here. Oh, well...

You can't go after an audience for a movie you didn't make. That should be their Golden Rule, but they never seem to learn. If you sell them an orange and tell them it's an apple, they're going to figure it out from the first bite. All you did was make them angry, and completely kill any word-of-mouth hopes.

The problem is the arrogance of Hollywood marketing. They condescend to the "masses." They think they know better than the average ticket buyer. They think they know more. They're wrong. They are more educated than the average ticket buyer, but the "average" folks have a MUCH better, faster and more discerning "insincerity detector" than any marketing exec you will ever meet. In that regard, the masses will always "win."

I hope the marketing people behind Sweeney Todd get fired too. They don't deserve their jobs. They completely messed up... yet again.

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Updated On: 12/26/07 at 09:44 AM

Still, the movie opened against Legend, National Treas., and the Chipmunks seems to be drawing the family crowd.
It was only released now to qualify for awards consideration.
It's so not a Christmas film.
But in January when nothing new comes out and all the hits have run out of steam I bet Sweeney will do very very well.

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i beg to differ

I think this film will fall out of the box office very quick (like Rent, Producers etc)

I do think it will do better on dvd

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