I think it’s possible both Ubeda and Cook make the category. It’s a hard one to narrow down, but I’m gonna hold on to at least Ubeda for now. Radcliffe and Skybell are the only contenders who I feel confident in there.
I agree with your locks, but maybe I’m being generous when I say there’s several other performances I’d really be shocked to see miss. Specifically Jeremy Strong, Leslie Odom Jr., Kara Young, Kelli O’Hara, Brian d’Arcy James, and Lindsay Mendez. I know Radcliffe has an infamous history of Tony snubs, but I think he’s safe this time. He’s in too big of a show giving too acclaimed a performance for me to entertain him missing again.