I'm curious why many people keep lumping in American Psycho with Nerds, Disaster and Tuck Everlasting as the main examples of "dead shows walking" this season. Not saying it will be some huge success but with a generally well-regarded London run, a Tony-caliber creative team and cast, it certainly has a better pedigree than any of those other shows.
My suspicion is that the nominations for Best Musical will be Hamilton, Waitress, American Psycho, and Shuffle Along (I simply don't see the Tony committee falling for any attempt to classify it as a revival), with Bright Star and On Your Feet (yes, On Your Feet) as dark horses.
In any case, like "Presidential candidates" clearly running for Vice-President, Nerds, Disaster and Tuck Everlasting are really not competing for anything so much as playing for other payoffs down the road - a NY run in this surprisingly busy season, when they could get a theatre, to help brand the show for tour and stock in years to come.