Interesting! I definitely didn’t expect this kind of pushback on what I thought was a fairly un-controversial remark, but here we are! A few responses to specific points raised:
1. The degree of Hamilton’s popularity was like lightning striking, and I wouldn’t think that any similarities between Hamilton and Six will work in Six’s financial favor. But maybe!
2. When I say a “bankable property” I mean something that is recognizable and has a draw in mainstream media. Something like Mean Girls, The Tempations, etc. Now, obviously being based on a recognizable property isn’t a sure-fire guarantee of financial success. Plenty of shows based on “bankable” properties have failed, and shows based on more obscure sources have succeeded. But if we’re just judging its prospects on paper, I don’t think we can call Henry VIII’s wives a bankable property. Let’s not forget that there was a play on Broadway about Henry VIII and his wives only 4 years ago. And as far as I can tell, it didn’t recoup. And yeah, there are lots of differences between Six and Wolf Hall, but that’s kind of the point. If Wolf Hall didn’t recoup but Six does, it will be because of Six's unique qualities: not the source itself, but what it DOES with the source.
3. If the show sweeps the Tonys, then sure. It will be extremely likely to succeed. I personally don’t think that will happen, but we’ll see. Nor do I think the show is good enough to warrant that (though I do like the show). But that’s entirely subjective, so on that point we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
4. Given how reliant Broadway is on tourism, I do think there is harm in saturating the market this early. You say there’s not much crossover in the audiences, but people to travel to NYC from all over to see theatre, especially if there’s a must-see theatrical event taking place, so I think it could very well be that a dangerously sizable chunk of its potential tourist audience will have already seen it when it comes to Broadway.
I stand by my reasoning, but I think some of your opposing reasoning makes sense too. It’s just a question of whether all of that will be enough: It's true the show has good momentum, but does it have enough momentum? It will likely get good reviews and good word of mouth, but will they be widespread enough? It will have a low running cost, but will it be low enough? Some people will want to see a show because they’ve heard of Henry VIII’s wives, but will that group of people be big enough? You all seem to think so, but I'm not so sure. And we won’t know until we see the outcome for ourselves.
And BTW I hope I’m wrong! I hope the show recoups and has a healthy run!
Updated On: 8/6/19 at 10:42 PM
