I think first and foremost Once On This Island had a solid 35% of ride or die support from Tony Voters before Award Season even started. When nominations were first announced it seemed like My Fair Lady was a sure bet with Lauren Ambrose being considered a Front runner for Leading Actress, and it looking to sweep up the technical awards. Carousel was the bad revival of the season, with Once on this Island being the "Oh yeah, that opened this season". So on the day of Nominations I would say the vote split was 50%-My Fair Lady, 35%-Once on This Island, and 15%-Carousel.
Then over the course of Awards Season Carousel went from being considered the sexist musical that shouldn't of been revived in the #metoo era, to competitive with Lindsay Mendez becoming the breakout performance of the season, and Joshua Henry coming out of nowhere to a frontrunner for the Best Actor race, and Jessie Mueller actually becoming competitive. If there is one this Scott Ruddin knows how to do it is campaign for Awards. If I had to bet he was able to change the minds of enough voters from voting for My Fair Lady, to instead vote for Carousel, that effected the final outcome. Add to that I am sure Ken Davenport campaigned with the message "Carousel and My Fair Lady are great and all, but so is Once on this Island. The former two are already in the million dollar club without the Tony, but Once on This Island needs it to survive." The two arguments likely peeled off just enough support from My Fair Lady, while simultaneously giving enough votes to Once on this Island, so that it came out with the award. If I had to bet the final vote totals were probably: 42%-Once On the Island, 37% My Fair Lady, and 30%- Carousel.
I do think Lincoln Center Theater may also be facing a backlash from commercial producers who can't feasibly produce such lavish productions. One of the arguments made for why The King and I won over Roundabout Theater Company's On the Twentieth Century was that The King and I would be the only production open past labor day. Lincoln Center Theater rarely takes risks with their Vivian Beaumont revivals, and I think voters are starting to get tired of that. We all knew My Fair Lady would be a gorgeous production, and it was.
Part of me also thinks that Laura Benanti's joke/comment on the "Hard Pass" for Eliza in the TheaterMania year in review video actually held a lot of weight in the theater community. We all originally were expecting either A-List Hollywood stars (Anne Hathaway and Collin Firth) for Eliza and Henry or at least a Broadway A-Lister, or maybe even an unknown, but then we got two former TV stars with Lauren Ambrose and Harry Hadden-Paton. With Eliza especially being such a coveted role in a show that won't be revived for at least another 20 years, I have a feeling many in the acting community felt betrayed by Ambrose's casting, and were only further infuriated by Sher hiring a relatively unknown British Harry Hadden-Paton over a Broadway actor. The fact that neither became the breakout performance of the season only fueled that unrest.
Updated On: 6/11/18 at 11:17 AM