Way too early 2017 Tony predictions — Page 12

The only thing I based the Ben Platt point on is that he seems to be the pinpoint of most of the DEH reviews, whereas in the Comet reviews, "the show" is the thing. As seen recently with Color Purple's grosses dipping severely when Cynthia took a vacation, I would also argue that Platt is a draw for many people who have bought tickets. Again, I yield- because there's really no way of knowing either point to be true until we see the grosses for each after their respective "stars" have left.

PaulWom said: "The only thing I based the Ben Platt point on is that he seems to be the pinpoint of most of the DEH reviews, whereas in the Comet reviews, "the show" is the thing."

Yes, but that is the true nature of both shows, though. DEH has a very specific lead role, and Comet is an ensemble. Ben is more unknown and has a lot of show to carry, and Josh is very well known and is making his theater debut, so both are credited for doing well with their respective burdens. Ben will get more credit for standing out, as an unknown, and Josh will get more credit for fitting in, as a celebrity.

The fact that two original musicals (unless we really think 70-odd pages of War and Peace were an obvious adaptation waiting to be plucked) are making $1M+ for delivering amazing nights in the theater is a pretty good state of things... and, of course, the ticket selling abilities of either should have no weight on who is delivering a better Tony-worthy performance in any case.

icecreambenjamin said: "I'm actually really hoping to have a rare Fiorello!/Sound of Music situation this year. Comet and Hansen are both great shows that are so different from each other and both deserve best musical.



"

That would be amazing. Truly, I cannot think of a season in recent memory in which two new, original musicals that were so different and yet so brilliant in opposite ways competed against each other. They both advance the theater in their own unique way! We are incredibly lucky to have both this season.

Just saw Natasha and Evan Hansen the the other day and was blown away by both.

Predicted Natasha nods: (Bold is a lock, others are possibilities)

Best Musical

Leading Actor: Josh Groban

Leading Actress: Denee Benton

Featured Actor: Lucas Steele

Featured Actress: Amber Gray

Featured Actress: Brittan Ashford

Best Score

Best Book

Costume Design

Lighting Design

Set Design

Predicted DEH nods:

Best Musical

Best Leading Actor: Ben Platt

Best Featured Actress: Rachel Bay Jones

Best Book

Best Score

Lighting Design

Set Design

Updated On: 12/25/16 at 10:07 PM

Bumping this.

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Best Play – Confirmed
A Doll's House, Part 2
The Encounter
Heisenberg
Indecent
Oh, Hello
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
Significant Other
Sweat

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunday in the Park with George
Sunset Boulevard

Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
The Cherry Orchard
The Front Page
The Glass Menagerie
Jitney
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
Six Degrees of Separation

Confirmed, Ruling TBD
The Present (play: new or revival?)

Not Yet Announced
Half Time (new musical)
The Master Builder (play revival)
Ride the Cyclone (new musical)
Smokey Joe's Café (musical revival)
SpongeBob: The Musical (new musical)
Sweet Charity (musical revival)
To Kill a Mockingbird (play: new or revival?)
Whorehouse (musical revival)
The Wiz (musical revival)

GreasedLightning said: "Just adding my two cents: I'd really like to see Ben take home Best Actor, but I'd really like to see Natasha, Pierre take home Best Musical."

Totally agreed!

Glenn can't be nominated for the same role that she won years ago.

I hope they nominate Christy and Eva and leave out Bette.

These are who I think will be nominated for Best Actress

Annaleigh Ashford

Denée Benton

Christine Ebersole

Patti LuPone

Bette Midler

and at this point, I see Bette taking it, but without any knowledge of what her performance is like.

I was really unimpressed with Benton's performance. If I were a Tony voter and I would vote for Josh Groban, Lucas Steele, Brittain Ashford and maybe Amber Gray. Given that we still have to wait for Eva Noblezada, Christy Altomare and Phillipa Soo, today I would bet the four other ladies (Ashford, Ebersole, LuPone and Midler) and Soo.

And since this is my first post in this thread, here's my mini-list:

Musical:
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre and The Great Comet of 1812
Groundhog Day
War Paint
Come From Away

Revival:
Hello, Dolly!
Sunday in the Park with George
Sunset Boulevard
Miss Saigon

Lead Actor:
Ben Platt
Josh Groban
Jake Gyllenhaal
Andy Karl
Jon Jon Briones

Lead Actress:
Bette Midler
Annaleigh Ashford
Christine Ebersole
Patti LuPone
Phillipa Soo

Featured Actor:
Lucas Steele
Gavin Creel
Michael Xavier
Brandon Uranowitz
Corbin Bleu

Featured Actress:
Laura Bay Jones
Jennifer Laura Thompson
Brittain Ashford
Barrett Doss
Jenn Colella

Updated On: 1/13/17 at 11:48 PM

I wish PBS would broadcast Falsettos in April so voters are reminded of Stephanie's performance.

Bumping this now that we know that The Present will officially be ruled as an original play.

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Best Play – Confirmed
A Doll's House, Part 2
The Encounter
Heisenberg
Indecent
Oh, Hello
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
The Present
Significant Other
Sweat

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunday in the Park with George
Sunset Boulevard

Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
The Cherry Orchard
The Front Page
The Glass Menagerie
Jitney
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
Six Degrees of Separation

Not Yet Announced
Half Time (new musical)
The Master Builder (play revival)
Ride the Cyclone (new musical)
Smokey Joe's Café (musical revival)
SpongeBob: The Musical (new musical)
Sweet Charity (musical revival)
To Kill a Mockingbird (play: new or revival?)
Whorehouse (musical revival)
The Wiz (musical revival)

Bumping this now that Sunday in the Park with George has removed itself from Revival considerations.

Best Musical – Confirmed
Amélie
Anastasia
Bandstand
A Bronx Tale
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Groundhog Day
Holiday Inn
In Transit
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Paramour
War Paint

Best Play – Confirmed
A Doll's House, Part 2
The Encounter
Heisenberg
Indecent
Oh, Hello
Oslo
The Play That Goes Wrong
The Present
Significant Other
Sweat

Best Revival of a Musical – Confirmed
Cats
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
Miss Saigon
Sunset Boulevard

Best Revival of a Play – Confirmed
The Cherry Orchard
The Front Page
The Glass Menagerie
Jitney
Les Liaisons Dangereuses
The Little Foxes
Present Laughter
The Price
Six Degrees of Separation

Please keep in mind that now there's 5 eligible contenders for Best Revival of a Musical. Meaning that the nominators will only be given 3 slots to fill in that category when determining the nominations. A fourth slot is still possible, but only if there's a close race between 2 shows in the nominating process within 3 votes or less.