2012 Tony Award Predictions Thread

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Posted: 5/18/12 at 12:16pm

I've seen nearly every show to open on Broadway this year, so here are my early Tony predictions 1-5 and who I think should win(1 being most likely to win, 5 being least likely). What are your will/should thoughts?

BEST PLAY:
1. Other Desert Cities
2. Clybourne Park
3. Venus in Fur
4. Peter and the Starcatcher

Will Win: This is going to be a throw-down between "Other Desert Cities" and "Clybourne Park". I'm thinking that voters will want to reward Jon Robin Baitz, LCT, and that ensemble with this prize. Not to mention road voters since "Cities" is already on the schedule for a LOT of regional theaters next season and will be for years to come.
Should Win: Personally, I actually think "Other Desert Cities" deserves this. I was also a huge fan of "Venus in Fur" and enjoyed "Clybourne" and "Peter" as well so I'm really happy with all of the nominees in this category.

BEST MUSICAL:
1. Newsies
2. Once
3. Nice Work If You Can Get It
4. Leap of Faith

Will Win: It's official. Disney is back on Broadway. "Newsies" has generated the most excitement for a new musical this year (and that isn't saying much given this seasons crop), and should take the crown here. "Once" has its admirers, but it won't be enough to overpower the producing/road vote.

Should Win: I guess "Newsies" should actually win, but I have to admit (and don't hate me for this or discount everything else I'm saying) that I enjoyed "Leap of Faith". Is it "Next to Normal"? Of course not. But, I had a genuinely good time. The score was fun, the book not awful (not great either), the cast very solid (especially Kecia Lewis-Evans and Leslie Odom Jr), and fantastic choreography. I wasn't impressed with "Nice Work" and have to say that for me "Once" just didn't do it. I would go so far as to say I was almost bored.

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL:
1. Newsies
2. Once
3. Lysistrata Jones
4. Nice Work If You Can Get It

Will Win: Harvey Fierstein, Newsies
Should Win: Douglas Carter Beane, Lysistrata Jones (seriously funny)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (MUSIC AND/OR LYRICS) WRITTEN FOR THE THEATRE:
1. Newsies
2. Peter and the Starcatcher
3. One Man, Two Guvnors
4. Bonnie & Clyde

Will Win: Newsies (Alan Menken finally wins his First Tony!)
Should Win: Newsies

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY:
1. Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
2. Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
3. Wit
4. Master Class

Will Win: Death of a Salesman
Should Win: The Best Man

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:
1. Follies
2. The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
3. Evita
4. Jesus Christ Superstar

Will Win: Follies
Should Win: Follies (truly the best musical production new or revival this season)

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY:
1. James Corden — One Man, Two Guvnors
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman — Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
3. James Earl Jones — Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
4. John Lithgow — The Columnist
5. Frank Langella — Man and Boy

Will Win: This will be a horse-race down to the last minute between James Corden and Philip Seymour Hoffman. I'm thinking that Corden will sneak it out because the Tonys like to acknowledge newcomers in breakout roles. And anyone who has seen "Guvnors" knows that Corden owns the season with his performance.

Should Win: James Corden really is brilliant and I think he deserves this.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY:
1. Stockard Channing — Other Desert Cities
2. Nina Arianda — Venus in Fur
3. Linda Lavin — The Lyons
4. Tracie Bennett — End of the Rainbow
5. Cynthia Nixon — Wit

Will Win: This is a true four-way horserace between everyone but Cynthia Nixon. I feel like Channing has the edge just given her status and the fact that she is in the only play that is a serious contender for Best Play. That being said, I could easily see Arianda or Lavin sneaking in there. Bennett I think is a little bit of a long-shot since the play that she is in itself wasn't really well received.

Should Win: Argh. I kind of think Stockard Channing, Linda Lavin, and Nina Arianda all deserve Tonys this year. If I had to pick one, I think I would go with Linda Lavin simply because at this stage in her career to pass on two major Broadway roles and take a risk with an unknown play and then deliver the goods in spades is a major achievement. Honestly though, I would be thrilled with a three way tie.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL:
1. Jeremy Jordan — Newsies
2. Danny Burstein — Follies
3. Steve Kazee — Once
4. Ron Raines — Follies
5. Norm Lewis — The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Will Win: Jeremy Jordan, Newsies. You won't hear an argument from me that Jeremy Jordan is the breakout star of the season. As we have seen in the past (John Lloyd Young, Paulo Szot, etc.) when that happens, they usually win. Danny Burstein or Steve Kazee could sneak in here, but they are outside chances.
Should Win: Danny Burstein, Follies. I really thought Burstein was amazing in "Follies" and finally got the chance to play the leading man and knocked it out of the park. Kazee was the best thing about "Once" for me, and I wouldn't mind seeing him win either.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL:
1. Audra McDonald — The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
2. Jan Maxwell — Follies
3. Cristin Milioti — Once
4. Kelli O’Hara — Nice Work If You Can Get It
5. Laura Osnes — Bonnie & Clyde

Will Win: Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess. There is a historical pattern: Audra is nominated for a Tony and then wins a month later. She will become the third actress to win Five Tonys. Jan Maxwell is nipping at her heels though, and if enough voters see the show in LA...
Should Win: Jan Maxwell, Follies. Maxwell redefined showstopping with her renditions of "Could I Leave You" and "The Story of Lucy and Jessie". It would be a true shame if she didn't win her first Tony for this performance of a lifetime.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY:
1. Christian Borle — Peter and the Starcatcher
2. Tom Edden — One Man, Two Guvnors
3. Andrew Garfield — Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
4. Jeremy Shamos — Clybourne Park
5. Michael Cumpsty — End of the Rainbow

Will Win: Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher
Should Win: Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY:
1. Judith Light — Other Desert Cities
2. Linda Emond — Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
3. Celia Keenan-Bolger — Peter and the Starcatcher
4. Condola Rashad — Stick Fly
5. Spencer Kayden — Don’t Dress for Dinner

Will Win: Judith Light, Other Desert Cities (by a hair over Emond who is really playing a leading role).
Should Win: Both Judith Light and Linda Emond deserve this.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL:
1. Michael Cerveris — Evita
2. Michael McGrath — Nice Work If You Can Get It
3. David Alan Grier — The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
4. Phillip Boykin — The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
5. Josh Young — Jesus Christ Superstar

Will Win: Michael Cerveris, Evita
Should Win: Honestly, probably no one. Maybe Andrew Keenan-Bolger for Newsies. Or Leslie Odom Jr for Leap of Faith. But not from our esteemed list of nominees.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL:
1. Jayne Houdyshell — Follies
2. Judy Kaye — Nice Work If You Can Get It
3. Da’Vine Joy Randolph — Ghost the Musical
4. Jessie Mueller — On a Clear Day You Can See Forever
5. Elizabeth A. Davis — Once

Will Win: Jayne Houdyshell, Follies
Should Win: This category was overflowing with riches and wound up with some strange nominees. I think Terri White (Follies) really deserved this prize. Given the nominees, I'll go with Judy Kaye who is just a brilliant actress all around.

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY:
1. Mike Nichols — Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
2. Roger Rees and Alex Timbers — Peter and the Starcatcher
3. Nicholas Hytner — One Man, Two Guvnors
4. Pam MacKinnon — Clybourne Park

Will Win: Mike Nichols, Death of a Salesman
Should Win: Nicholas Hytner, One Man, Two Guvnors

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL:
1. John Tiffany — Once
2. Jeff Calhoun — Newsies
3. Diane Paulus — The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
4. Kathleen Marshall — Nice Work If You Can Get It

Will Win: John Tiffany, Once
Should Win: Jeff Calhoun, Newsies

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY:
1. Christopher Gattelli — Newsies
2. Kathleen Marshall — Nice Work If You Can Get It
3. Steven Hoggett — Once
4. Rob Ashford — Evita

Will Win: Christopher Gattelli, Newsies
Should Win: Christopher Gattelli, Newsies

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS:
1. William David Brohn and Christopher Jahnke — The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
2. Martin Lowe — Once
3. Bill Elliott — Nice Work If You Can Get It
4. Danny Troob — Newsies

Will Win: William David Brohn and Christopher Jahnke, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Should Win: Martin Lowe, Once

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 5/18/12 at 12:21pm

There was already a thread on this, but I had Newsies as my should win over Once. I guess you could say I had a complete change of heart because I am really rooting for Once. Newsies is NOT locked in for that big award yet.

[bdn223]

Posted: 5/18/12 at 12:31pm

Agreed i liked newsies way more than once, but i think its cuz i have never been in love. Newsies has been loosing awards steam, and i honeslty hope it wins. I feel that the reason they announced open ended wednsday was because they had origianally planned for it in the acceptence speech, but after the drama leage and outer critics they were losin hope and they needed to bring the buzz back to Newsies...didnt anyone notice that the first extenction announcement was made the same day as Once opened to glowing reviews, disney was trying to steal their momentum whih hasnt been working, which is why they announced its open ended to try and bring the buzz back to NEWSIES

[newintown]

Posted: 5/18/12 at 1:19pm

"I've seen nearly every show to open on Broadway this year"

I'm sorry, that couldn't have been very pleasant.

[bwayrose7]

Posted: 5/18/12 at 1:21pm

As much as my heart wants to say Newsies will take the big prize, I think Once will probably win in a close call. I also think it may take book. Newsies seems a pretty sure thing to win best score, and I agree that Jeremy Jordan will probably win best actor after the exceptional year he's had. Best actress should and probably will go to Jan Maxwell as a recognition of Follies' great cast, along with a best revival win. I don't really know enough about the plays to make good predictions. And of course things may change as more awards are announced pre-Tonys

[[e-mail]]

Posted: 5/18/12 at 1:24pm

newintown-

Not all of it, but most of it was good. Especially the plays. A fantastic year for new plays.

[dreaming]

Posted: 5/18/12 at 1:37pm

I think Once may well pull the upset, but I think it will be very, very close.
Best Play: Clybourne Park (I wasn't as bowled over as some and I thought One Man was the best play of the season-and I typically don't love comedies, so I was shocked at how much I loved that play)
Best Revival of a Musical: Follies
Best Revival of a Play: Death of a Salesman
Best Actor in a Musical: Best actor will go to one of the veterans, I think (either Danny Burstein or Norm Lewis).
Best book-Once
Best Score-Newsies (I'd love Bonnie and Clyde or One Man to take it-they were vastly superior)
Best Actress in a Musical-Audra McDonald
Best Featured Actress in a Musical-Judy Kaye, although this category is a tough call (I think they will want to give Nice Work something and this would be a good place)
Best Featured Actor in a Musical-Michael Cerveris (although one of the two gentlemen from Porgy could sneak in here-Boykin particularly)
Best Actress in a Play: Nina Arianda
Best Actor in a Play: My head says Philip Seymour Hoffman for redefining Willy, but my heart says James Corden for a brilliant comedic performance-he just owned that stage every second he was on it-and he is remarkably gifted (what he's doing is very, very difficult)
Best Featured Actor in a Play: Andrew Garfield (he exceeded my expectations and my heart broke for his character as much as it did for Willy) I could see Christian Borle sneaking in there, though-and I would be happy with that, too-he was excellent in "Peter"
Best Featured Actress in a Play: Judith Light (for a truly brilliant performance)
Best Direction of a Musical: John Tiffany, Once
Best Direction of a Play: Mike Nichols, Death of a Salesman
Best Choreography: Christopher Gattelli, Newsies (although I could see Steven Hoggett taking it in a Once sweep-remember, it's not always the flashy choreography that wins-and Once's choreography is very good for the piece-it serves it beautifully. Spring Awakening won a few years ago and everyone swore Mary Poppins had it.)
Best Orchestrations: Martin Lowe, Once




Updated On: 5/18/12 at 01:37 PM

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 5/18/12 at 5:53pm

Once definitely has the momentum. Newsies has yet to win a Best Musical prize this season. I'd say Once is the one to beat.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 6/3/12 at 4:29pm

BEST PLAY: Other Desert Cities. Really, it's between Cities and Starcatcher in my opinion (Clybourne Park's momentum peaked a year ago when it won the Pulitzer--the Broadway production hasn't gotten nearly enough buzz). Gut feeling says they go for substance over style this year and give Baitz his first Tony.

BEST MUSICAL: Newsies. It'll be close between it and Once, but the tour voters will push Newsies over the top at the end.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY: Death of a Salesman. Maybe the easiest category to call all night. Best Man has absolutely no awards momentum and the other two are long gone.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL: Follies. Wouldn't be shocked if Porgy took it, though--remember Porgy got more noms and no closed show has ever won Best Revival of a Musical (and, realistically, a lot of the out of town voters probably missed Follies). Still, it seems to have enough love in the theatre community to take it.

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman. Veteran who has never won plays one of the greatest characters of the 20th century to rave reviews. James Corden will keep it close, but Hoffman will get his first Tony.

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY: Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow. Perhaps the most wide-open category of the night, coming down to Bennett, Nina Arianda and Stockard Channing in my opinion. Channing and Arianda's work have lost some awards steam since opening last fall. Plus, Channing's won before and Arianda seems destined to get her due in the near future. Bennett, meanwhile, gives a dead-on Judy Garland in essentially a one-woman show. It'll be close, but she'll take it.

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL: Danny Burstein, Follies. Steve Kazee will make a late push, and if Once happens to start sweeping he could definitely take it, but Burstein is a much-overdue veteran who reinvented a classic role to much acclaim.

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL: Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess. She continues giving a knockout performance every night in another classic musical theatre opera role which will easily result in her first leading Tony award.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY: Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher. Could easily be Andrew Garfield, but Borle's performance has been much more talked aobut and he has a lot of momentum from his work on "Smash". They'll want to award Peter in one of the major categories, and this seems like the one.

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY: Judith Light, Other Desert Cities. Much-beloved veteran giving a career performance finally gets her due. Wouldn't be stunned to see Linda Emond get it though either.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL: Michael Cerveris, Evita. Widely regarded as the best thing about Evita, Cerveris should pick up his second Tony here. Both Philip Boykin and Michael McGrath seem primed for a potential upset though.

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost. Will probably end up being Judy Kaye, but gut feeling says they reward the one part of Ghost that actually got outstanding reviews. This just seems like the type of role they reward with this category, moresoe than Kaye who really doesn't get to shine until midway through Act Two.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Alan Menken and Jack Feldman, Newsies. Wouldn't be stunned if it was One Man, Two Guvnors though, whose songs were actually much better-received than Newsies'.

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL: Enda Walsh, Once. To make up for its score ineligibility, they'll reward Once here, in part because it's a solid book and in part because none of the other nominees are worthy.

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS: Martin Lowe, Once. Creating such an effective sound out of few instruments and fine-tuning it for actor-musicians will result in a Tony win for Lowe.

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL: John Tiffany, Once. Much as John Doyle for Sweeney several years ago, the coordination of the actor-musicians will result in another win here (not to mention the other fine points of his direction).

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY: Mike Nichols, Death of a Salesman. Nine-time winner directing Death of a Salesman to much acclaim. No need for further explanation.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY: Christopher Gatteli, Newsies. The showeist choreography and best dancing will end up winning, regardless of the true meaning of the category. Don't count out Tony favorite Kathleen Marshall though, even though Nice Work is far from her best.

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL: Hugh Vanstone, Ghost. Regardless of the overall quality of the show, the design for Ghost is incredible, especially from a lighting standpoint.

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY: Jeff Croiter, Peter and the Starcatcher. Visually stunning work that enhances the play beautifully.

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL: Rob Howell and Jon Driscoll, Ghost. I just don't see the Tonys rewarding Spider-Man. The technical brilliance of Ghost is rewarded again.

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY: John Lee Beatty, Other Desert Cities. Beautiful and historically accurate set design that also perfectly enhances the text.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL: Gregg Barnes, Follis. Again, don't see the Tonys showing any love for Spider-Man. Not to mention, the costumes for Follies were stunning.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY: Paloma Young, Peter and the Starcatcher. They typically love more traditional period wear in this category (see Earnest last year) but the costumes in Peter and outstanding and none of the other nominees are that noteworthy.

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL: Clive Goodwin, Once. Outstanding work on one of the hit shows of the season.

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY: Darron L. West, Peter and the Starcatcher. The technical love for Starcatcher continues.