Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 9/28/14- Page 2

[Pootie2]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 3:55pm

Would it be premature to decide future closings in September if there's an expected holiday bump between Thanksgiving and New Years? I'm mystified by the decision-making process for show closings. Besides that people don't know most shows' nuts, is it only the producers who make the decision, and how flexible are they in terms of deciding how long to hold out? I looked around thinking there might be some kind of general formula like "fall below nut for 6 weeks straight" but obviously that's not the case. And apparently there are shows that canceled their closing dates, so that's interesting...

Are January/Feb seen as better months than September?

[Jarethan]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 4:07pm

Jan and Feb are usually pretty dire periods, excepting President's Holiday week.

We have learned in recent years that even in the spectacular holiday weeks, not all shows benefit. Losing money for weeks at a time in hopes of a holiday bump would backfire for a lot of shows.

[WhizzerMarvin]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 4:10pm

You have to keep several factors in mind when trying to guess when I show might close: what is the weekly nut, how often are they making a profit and by how much, what is the advance, what is the gross potential of the theater, how long is the contract of the star (if there is one), the time of the year, among others.

January and February are usually the worst months when it comes to grosses. Even some of the hits may struggle/experience dips during the winter months.

Maybe you have great advance sales for a week or two in December, but it's not even October- what are you going to do until then?

Is there another show that wants your theater that is more likely to bring in more money? Many the producers want to keep the show open, but there is too much pressure from the theater owners and it's time to close up shop.

Let's say you're making your weekly nut, but you're only not making much over the nut. It still might not be worth it to watch it barely break even, especially if the show hasn't recouped yet.

Updated On: 9/29/14 at 04:10 PM

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 4:18pm

LADY DAY almost made as much as LES MIS. I love that.

[Pootie2]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 4:18pm

Interesting. Sounds like a total crapshoot!

[WhizzerMarvin]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 4:26pm

I mean, most Broadway shows don't recoup, you have to be impressed with anything that does. (Maybe someone here knows an exact stat, but isn't it something like 75% of shows don't recoup?)

[Jonwo]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 4:26pm

Whizzer made some great points although don't some long runners have reserves that they can use if they can use if they don't meet their weekly nut? Once for example at the moment is struggling but I wonder if the producers would have set aside some money when it was profitable so that it could survive the low period?

[Pootie2]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 4:30pm

@ Whizzer:
Yes, I saw a Crain's article (which is actually what brought me to lurk on this board to begin with) stating the general "failure" rate of 75%. But there's another Crain's article pointing out that shows don't tell people the actual recoup number, and shows like Macbeth that didn't recoup still managed to get 89% back, which isn't horrific. Which makes me wonder why more producers don't post data like that to allay fears over investing in "risky" ventures, but since none of these shows are publicly funded, I guess they don't feel the need to. Or something.

@ Jonwo: I really wonder that too. It's so black box, though, this Broadway business thing...

Updated On: 9/29/14 at 04:30 PM

[WhizzerMarvin]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 4:46pm

Well Once is in a different position than shows like On the Town, The Last Ship or Curious Incident. Once has already recouped so they can sustain a rough week or month better than a show struggling to pay back the initial investment.

If a show is a limited run, like so many star-driven plays are nowadays, then the economics need to be very carefully planned out. If you only have 14 weeks to recoup, you don't have a lot of wiggle-room for under-performing weeks.

Take a play like Elling. That had a "strictly limited" run of 13 weeks, IIRC, but closed after one because the sales were so abysmal and the advance so poor that there was just no chance it could recoup. (Other factors contributed I'm sure, but this is proof that just because a show is set to play a limited commercial engagement, it does not guarantee that it will play out the entire run.)

[evic]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 5:00pm

Most revivals don't run longer than 2 years. I think people are Les Miz'd out, Cabaret is spectacular but most people I know who saw the last revival passed on this one because it is the same- no surprises. I hope On The Town makes it- such a great show- but I think 3 times will not be the charm. It has no stars. Once and Pippin I assume will be gone by January. All depends on the stop clause also...if shows are struggling, the theater owners will give them the boot and bring in a potential blockbuster. I have no faith in The Last Ship lasting. And people are realizing that Matilda is not the must see that the critics raved about...I detested it. But Sept is always a slow month so we will see what the fall brings.

[ethan231h]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 5:35pm

I'm not just saying this because I love Pippin but, I think Josh will sell tickets, probably not as many as the Weissler's want but will sell more than what is being sold now. On another note, I think Lucie will sell a good amount because New York theatergoers such as me which will probably not be seeing the tour would love to see her. I mean like her mom was Lucille Ball!!! I thin Once will close pretty soon

[Jonwo]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 5:44pm

'Well Once is in a different position than shows like On the Town, The Last Ship or Curious Incident. Once has already recouped so they can sustain a rough week or month better than a show struggling to pay back the initial investment.

If a show is a limited run, like so many star-driven plays are nowadays, then the economics need to be very carefully planned out. If you only have 14 weeks to recoup, you don't have a lot of wiggle-room for under-performing weeks.

Take a play like Elling. That had a "strictly limited" run of 13 weeks, IIRC, but closed after one because the sales were so abysmal and the advance so poor that there was just no chance it could recoup. (Other factors contributed I'm sure, but this is proof that just because a show is set to play a limited commercial engagement, it does not guarantee that it will play out the entire run.)'

It'll be interesting how Wolf Hall fares because it's scheduled for a limited 15 week run at the Winter Garden which to me is risky since it's such a big theatre but it could pay off if it's well received. Given its success in London, I'm sure the producers have a rough idea of how long it needs to run on Broadway to be financially successful.

[Auggie27]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 5:59pm

Not a good week. What role, if any, do the holidays play? I've never been aware, though when I lived in Manhattan I used to book seats for those nights, and often got them more readily.

"If/Then" remains above 80% capacity of seats, but can't sell top price tickets anymore. I'm now agreeing with those who predict a January 1 closing. I can't see it selling into February. It will plummet this week with Menzel out for at least 3 performances.

[Pootie2]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 6:04pm

"'If/Then' remains above 80% capacity of seats, but can't sell top price tickets anymore. I'm now agreeing with those who predict a January 1 closing. I can't see it selling into February. It will plummet this week with Menzel out for at least 3 performances."

Not just this week, but another week in November was earmarked for Menzel's absence. I'm guessing she has to take time to record for the upcoming Frozen short. They did get $6mil in advance sales, but no idea how all those numbers really pan out.

[TFMH18]

Posted: 9/29/14 at 11:56pm

I do wonder what If/Then's nut is. A January closing does seem somewhat likely, but if that were the plan, I wonder why they wouldn't have mentioned it by now in order to drum up those sales in it's final months? I could see them squeaking out a year long run and closing in March when all the actors' contracts are up.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 10/1/14 at 6:36pm

Granted this week(9/22-9/2 is typically a bad in general. However, I'm still expecting PIPPIN to stunt cast most of the lead & supporting roles over time. I think PIPPIN's got another 1-2 years in it. ONCE can't be lasting much longer, I love the show, but it's time to end it's run by New Year's. And even if ON THE TOWN gets raves, I still don't see them filling The Lyric. They'll likely average 60%-70% capacity.

[Pootie2]

Posted: 10/2/14 at 5:37pm

"'If/Then' remains above 80% capacity of seats, but can't sell top price tickets anymore. I'm now agreeing with those who predict a January 1 closing. I can't see it selling into February. It will plummet this week with Menzel out for at least 3 performances."

I really wonder how close IF/THEN is to recouping, because for the open-ended run on Ticketmaster, another week of shows has been added, pushing it out to January 11. Or does that sort of thing not matter, and shows have announced closings during an extension?

Moreover, besides the 3 additional days Menzel will be out November as noted above, which includes a Wed night cancellation (and double Sunday), 11/7 FRIDAY night is also canceled but without doubling the following Sunday. Isn't Friday usually a big night? And then I'd expect them to double Sunday like they've done before. Seems odd.

Updated On: 10/2/14 at 05:37 PM

[VotePeron]

Posted: 10/2/14 at 6:49pm

If/Then posted on Playbill last week advertising auditions for all the supporting roles, so I doubt they plan on closing soon.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 10/2/14 at 7:37pm

^That means nothing. It could be some one is leaving or is scheduled to leave, it could be to fulfill Equity requirements. Additionally, they have to be prepared future dates until that time they announce closing.

[evic]

Posted: 10/2/14 at 9:31pm

Many an actor was hired to replace and then the show closed in a few weeks....Debbie Reynolds in Woman Of The Year comes to mind.

[goldenboy]

Posted: 10/4/14 at 4:20pm

Debbie Reynolds got sick and couldn't go on. That's why Women of the Year closed. I caught one of the final performances with Louise Troy on for Debbie Reynolds. Not great.