Posted: 6/9/23 at 3:11am
One-fifth of voters polled, which means you can basically take these to the bank:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/theater/tony-awards-predictions.html
Posted: 6/9/23 at 3:40am
This is consistent with the consensus I’ve seen here. Kimberly Akimbo isn’t liked by everyone, but no clear alternative has emerged. It’s interesting that Shucked apparently is drawing more votes.
Best Revival of a Musical is still a crapshoot, but the Sondheim revivals are dividing enough of the vote to give Parade a clear lane, especially given its unfortunate timeliness. That same dynamic is helping Leopoldstadt in the Best Play category too, although its perceived status as Tom Stoppard's last play doesn't hurt either.
Jodie Comer appears to have broken out of the pack in Best Actress in a play, or maybe there never was a pack.
I always wish this poll would include a few more categories (director, featured actors) but I don’t run the New York Times.
I still think it’s very possible that Sweeney Todd won’t win a single Tony, because I can’t think of a category in which it is likely to win. I doubt that will affect the box office.
Updated On: 6/9/23 at 03:40 AM
Posted: 6/9/23 at 4:41am
The sample size would actually be considered too big if this were stats class, lol!
That being said, all of this makes me so happy! Kimberly as the heavy favorite? Ghee and Clark seemingly having it locked down? A solid chance for Stephen McKinley Henderson? Many voters seemingly not forgetting Into the Woods? All fantastic news!
Posted: 6/9/23 at 4:53am
bear88 said: "I always wish this poll would include a few more categories (director, featured actors) but I don’t run the New York Times."
I agree with you on all counts, but wanted to focus on this one. The only prediction that I changed because of this article is Actor in a Play (I thought it might go to Pierce). It's good to hear that some I hadn't been so sure about are locked down (mainly Ghee), but this mostly follows the popular consensus.
All the real drama this year lies in the featured categories, direction, and book and score! The general consensus seems to be that there are at least 2-3 nominees in each of those categories that could easily win. I'm SO curious if that's true or if our perception is different than the voters!
Posted: 6/9/23 at 7:36am
I hope NYT is right. Kimberly needs this to stay open.
Although - Some Like It Hot and Shucked are struggling - remember both have a much higher weekly breakeven than the $480,000 Kimberly has.
Posted: 6/9/23 at 8:27am
Sounds great for Kimberly Akimbo!
I thought it would be closer between Victoria Clarke and Annaleigh Ashford for lead actress in a musical.
Posted: 6/9/23 at 10:08am
J. Harrison Ghee and Stephen McKinley Henderson are a delightful surprise. Though if people love Parade, perhaps they take Platt (and Arden?) along for the ride.
Posted: 6/9/23 at 10:14am
The article indicates that love between the musical revival options is spread, with no clear consensus. I wouldn't be surprised if Arden took director (though I think Jessica Stone deserves it for her understated work), but this article, at least, isn't indicating the kind of groundswell support for PARADE to lead to a sweep including Platt.
Updated On: 6/9/23 at 10:14 AM
Posted: 6/9/23 at 12:01pm
QueenAlice said: "The article indicates that love between the musical revival options is spread, with no clear consensus. I wouldn't be surprised if Arden took director (though I think Jessica Stone deserves it for her understated work), but this article, at least, isn't indicating the kind of groundswell support for PARADE to lead to a sweep including Platt."
Yeah, I think that's v unlikely. I think Revival is still a three way race. I'd director between Arden and DuBessonet.
Posted: 6/9/23 at 12:04pm
I always enjoy this Times piece every year. I'm definitely rooting for Kimberly Akimbo. Best Revival is so tough this year. I thoroughly enjoyed all of the nominees, and I will honestly be happy with any of them winning. If I had to choose, I would go with Parade, though. I would definitely love to see Arden win for Best Direction.
Posted: 6/9/23 at 12:43pm
BJR said: "QueenAlice said: "The article indicates that love between the musical revival options is spread, with no clear consensus. I wouldn't be surprised if Arden took director (though I think Jessica Stone deserves it for her understated work), but this article, at least, isn't indicating the kind of groundswell support for PARADE to lead to a sweep including Platt."
Yeah, I think that's v unlikely. I think Revival is still a three way race. I'd director between Arden and DuBessonet."
I'm going with Parade and Arden for the Tony Wins!
Posted: 6/9/23 at 5:42pm
A shame that Kail wasn't nominated. Something fishy there.
Posted: 6/9/23 at 6:20pm
CoffeeBreak said: "A shame that Kail wasn't nominated. Something fishy there."
He should have directed the show better if he wanted to be nominated.
Posted: 6/9/23 at 7:27pm
Michael Paulson and Jesse Green did a Reddit AMA (Ask Me Anything, a Q&A) today, you can read without an account:
Jesse/Michael Q&A
Posted: 6/9/23 at 7:36pm
CoffeeBreak said: "A shame that Kail wasn't nominated. Something fishy there."
How is it fishy? There are only a few nominee slots and there were many eligible directors. Somebody has to miss the cut.
Updated On: 6/9/23 at 07:36 PM
Posted: 6/9/23 at 8:53pm
BETTY22 said: "I hope NYT is right. Kimberly needs this to stay open.
Although - Some Like It Hot and Shucked are struggling - remember both have a much higher weekly breakeven than the $480,000 Kimberly has."
It does, but even if it wins, it's just going to be like other niche Best Musicals like A Strange Loop and The Band's Visit. Both critics's darlings and won the Tony but ran till the end of the year, lost money, and closed. The main reason is David Stone (Wicked) has deep pockets and wants the Tony.
Posted: 6/9/23 at 9:54pm
Jumpin_J said: "BETTY22 said: "I hope NYT is right. Kimberly needs this to stay open.
Although - Some Like It Hot and Shucked are struggling - remember both have a much higher weekly breakeven than the $480,000 Kimberly has."
It does, but even if it wins, it's just going to be like other niche Best Musicals like A Strange Loop and The Band's Visit. Both critics's darlings and won the Tony but ran till the end of the year, lost money, and closed. The main reason is David Stone (Wicked) has deep pockets and wants the Tony."
The Band’s Visit recouped
Posted: 6/10/23 at 1:58am
Synecdoche2 said: "CoffeeBreak said: "A shame that Kail wasn't nominated. Something fishy there."
He should have directed the show better if he wanted to be nominated."
Kail so not deserving of a nod.
Posted: 6/12/23 at 3:47am
Paulson had a perfect record. Shoot, even the races he wasn’t really predicting ended up going in favor of nominee with the most votes in his survey.
The reason is good old-fashioned reporting. Call and email a fifth of the Tony voters, add up the results.
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