I think there is a very good chance it will be nominated in all of the categories Ljay listed (except lighting, which I anticipate will go to fancier shows) but that it will only win REVIVAL and Possibly DIRECTOR. (Which really upsets me.)
I don't think it will get a Featured Actress nomination. It certainly doesn't deserve one (Donna L didn't do it for me at all). It will certainly be nominated in the other three acting categories, director, revival (which it will surely win), orchestrations, and perhaps lighting.
I think it will win Revival and Actress. I also think it's got a great shot at Best Actor- the only person, in my mind, who can beat Cerveris is John Lloyd Young.
I agree on all except possibly lighting. Thinking about it, there was essentially two colors - white and red - used on stage, and the red and yellowish used underneath. So hopefully a nod. As effectively used as they were, there may not be enough different use of light to wow judges to a win.
(The lighting in Chicago, on the other hand, is pretty spectacular, and not really all that minimal.)
I do think, however, they may get a nod for Costume Design as well.
"Hey little girls, look at all the men in shiny shirts and no wives!" - Jackie Hoffman, Xanadu, 19 Feb 2008
I actually would be really surprised to see Patti LuPone win a Tony for this. She'll definitely be nominated, but I (in addition to some of my friends) felt her performance was very one-note. She was saucy to be sure, and gave enormous flair to her one-liners, but there was no emotional connection between her and Cerveris. This made the ending worth no more than a shoulder shrug.
Plus her diction carried over to the entire cast. So many songs were impossible to understand, and I know the show well and was sitting very close to the stage.
I'm suprised you feel that way Vespertine. Almost every critic and fan on this board agreed that Patti's diction is perfect in this revival, and her best diction in a show ever. We know she usually has issues with diction.
Even on the cast recording, you can understand every lyric. I find her MUCH easier to understand than Lansbury.
Some critics called it the performance of her career, so yeah, she is a pretty big contender this year.
Best Revival Best Director Best Actress (Patti) Best Actor (Michael) Best Supporting Actress (Donna or Lauren, or both) Best Supporting Actor (Manoel) Best Orchestrations Best Lighting (yeah there wasn't a lot of colors, but the way they used them was amazing) Best Costume Design
It's a lock, in my opinion, for Best Revival and Best Director.