2013 Awards Season Thread — Page 6

I honestly can see both Amy Adams and Leo being surprise upsets at the Oscars.

I also think American Hustle might edge out 12 Years a Slave.

I think 12YAS cornered Adapted Screenplay pretty easily (I know people complain on the script compared to the book but I'm on critic Glenn Kenny's side on the decisions of adapting the text). Terence Winter for The Wolf of Wall Street is the only visible threat to it and that film has been known for improvising instead of sticking to script. Unless the Academy actually wants to recognize the Before Trilogy and considering they only just recently made Julie Delpy, a previous nominee, a member of the Academy- I doubt that actually foments.

If Russell somehow wins the DGA, I'm calling it over. But if McQueen or, the expected winner Cuaron, win will keep the race still interesting in key categories.

I also think like in 2011-12 we might not get an editing winner to match the Best Picture winner. To me that is Gravity or 12YAS. I would say the messiness of American Hustle fits in its editing but few people consider that a strength.

I also predict Costumes and Production Design to go to The Great Gatsby.

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Will someone tell me what time and network they're on?

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Gravity and 12 Years a Slave tied the PGA Awards!

Wow. And just like that, GRAVITY becomes a real contender for the Oscar.

I do still think 12YAS will win, and it deserves to. GRAVITY and HUSTLE are wonderful movies and would top my list easily in any other year, but 12YAS is in another league entirely. What a great year for movies.

I'm mostly in agreement with bobs3 but...

American Hustle at this point wouldn't be an upset at all. Ever since it surprisingly - and in my opinion deservedly - won with the NY Film Critics, it's been on a steady climb. In addition to intelligence and irrepressible energy, the movie has stronger characters and a great deal more heart than any other release this year. Count me as one who expected, based on the novel, that 12 Years a Slave would have a great deal more heart and be much richer in its characters - not to suggest that I didn't like the movie; I did, there's much to admire in it; but I still found it a disappointment. As I've said before, it seems that there was an effort to "desentimentalize" Northrup's memoir for the screen, but in my opinion this also de-cinema-tized much of the narrative. The most emotional and memorable moments in the movie are Nyong'o's and I expect she will win.

As far as best actor, I think it's just too close to call. I wouldn't completely rule out Dern or Dicaprio. Only Bale seems unlikely to me, and not that he isn't deserving. To the contrary, he gave a career best performance in one of the most beloved movies of the year. Bale won't win for the same reason Lawrence won't win: they both recently gave good, but not nearly as good as their work in Hustle, performances in other movies by David O'Russell, and got oscars for those performances.

I know mine is a dissenting opinion, but I don't think any of the films are oscar worthy. Not one of them struck me as "wow" that was good! And the only performances I thought were remarkable were McConaughey's and Leto's.

They just can't make 'em the way they used to.

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This race is BANANAS.

Ever since in 2009 when AMPAS went into a preferential ballot like the PGA has, the PGA Awards have **never** been incorrect as a precursor. A tie? How? I'm willing to bet that either Gravity or 12 Years a Slave inched out the other in terms of overall points but one of them had much more 1st place votes in a very close race.

BAFTAs are gonna be fun. All 3 films have a case. 12 Years a Slave has a British director with a cast that has UK ties, Gravity is a British made film with David Heyman, who produced the Harry Potter films that basically had all of BAFTA working in it (plus Gravity got a screenplay nod that it has not gotten anywhere else from major precursors), and BAFTA was the only precursor that correctly had American Hustle in all four acting categories.

With some time since I last post, I can definitely buy Hustle as the lone picture winner. In DOR's other 2 other Academy films, they both front-loaded in major categories and only had 3 wins to show for it despite 15 total nominations- all 3 winners in acting. Those 3 winners only had one who felt vulnerable, Lawrence in a 3-actress race with Riva and Chastain, while Melissa Leo and Christian Bale were undeniable winning every precursor in sight. Lawrence is not aggressively campaigning due to her schedule and she is again probably their best shot but I think if Nyong'o wins at BAFTA the Oscar is effectively hers to lose. If Hustle somehow loses at WGA, Spike Jonze is a threat, then I think it could win Picture without anything else. But I think Gravity is easily going to win the most Oscars. I do have questions though. If the preferential ballot is correct, do we at least have a split picture and director? Or will this be the first time the PGA Awards get it wrong since the AMPAS followed their lead?

Jane, I disagree. Gravity, even if I had some issues with it, and 12 Years a Slave were both one of the better theater experiences I've had in some time and are films I cannot imagine being made by anybody other than their directors. I noted back in the thread on the death of the medium-sized film by big studios but one thing I really liked about this year is that the movies I loved the most **had** to be experienced in a theater. Of all the sins done by Harvey Weinstein, and there are lots, him pushing screener culture might be the worst. It made the movies a TV/laptop event.

Updated On: 1/20/14 at 11:48 AM

I'm with strummergirl, I think this is a remarkable years for movies. The kind of work directors, actors, writers are churning out is incredible and to see producers funding the type of material that made it onto the screen this year is encouraging. I'm glad no movie has emerged as the clear standout, I hate it when that happens; I think the fact that hasn't happened this year is that there are so many great films that they can't find just one to shower with a gazillion awards. Even looking at the films that didn't get in for Picture, there's movies I know I'll return to over and over again: INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS, BLUE JASMINE, SAVING MR. BANKS, FRANCES HA, THE HEAT, all wonderful movies in their own right.
AMERICAN HUSTLE is my beloved movie of the year, and I hope it wins. The PGA loss pretty much indicates to me it's between GRAVITY and 12 YEARS A SLAVE, but what if those two split the vote an AMERICAN HUSTLE wins? I'm gonna say GRAVITY wins now, but it's a very exciting race.

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Explanation of the tie. Given how terrible it was revealed about the voting processes for NSFC and NYFCC, maybe the critics awards should follow the lead of the PGA. The reasoning makes sense.
Not even reapportioning could decide it

Besty, you can go away with your logic. The one with the most votes wins? That would just be ridiculous. Let's instead make it ridiculously complicated so that no one--particularly the people voting--has any idea of how the voting process happens. That makes the most sense, right? Right?...Right?

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Updated On: 1/20/14 at 06:01 PM