2013 Awards Season Thread- Page 6

[xxdrewboy85xx]

Posted: 1/19/14 at 12:45pm

I honestly can see both Amy Adams and Leo being surprise upsets at the Oscars.

I also think American Hustle might edge out 12 Years a Slave.

[Kad]

Posted: 1/19/14 at 2:07pm

I'm also thinking American Hustle will beat out 12 Years a Slave. The latter may have debuted too early, with too much buzz, and was upset by the number of quality winter releases. Lupita could very possibly be the film's only major award.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 1/19/14 at 4:57pm

I think 12YAS cornered Adapted Screenplay pretty easily (I know people complain on the script compared to the book but I'm on critic Glenn Kenny's side on the decisions of adapting the text). Terence Winter for The Wolf of Wall Street is the only visible threat to it and that film has been known for improvising instead of sticking to script. Unless the Academy actually wants to recognize the Before Trilogy and considering they only just recently made Julie Delpy, a previous nominee, a member of the Academy- I doubt that actually foments.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 1/19/14 at 5:27pm

I agree with Besty that the Oscars list will match SAG 1:1. I honestly don't see any scenario in which Cate Blanchett wouldn't win, it's simply one of the great performances of our time, and she's one of the great actresses of our time. No one else is giving a performance that remotely matches what Blanchett did, as much as I adored Amy Adams in her career-best performance in HUSTLE.
Matthew McConaughey IS unbeatable IMO. You just have to look at how much the Academy and the industry in general loved DALLAS BUYERS CLUB. Yes, WOLF OF WALL STREET got some key nominations, but they were expected in ways that the widespread love of DALLAS BUYERS CLUB wasn't. DiCaprio could surprise, sure, but I just don't see McConaughey in that specific role and that movie losing, especially with all the buzz surrounding Jared Leto (who'll win by a landslide). I'd vote for DiCaprio over McConaughey (whose role is just pure Oscar bait), though Ejiofor would be my number one.
Join me to the list of people who think AMERICAN HUSTLE will win Picture. All is decided tonight when the PGA announces their winner, if AMERICAN HUSTLE wins, it's over. If GRAVITY wins, I'd say there's still a race, and if 12 YEARS A SLAVE wins, then the race is over as well.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 1/19/14 at 6:02pm

If Russell somehow wins the DGA, I'm calling it over. But if McQueen or, the expected winner Cuaron, win will keep the race still interesting in key categories.

I also think like in 2011-12 we might not get an editing winner to match the Best Picture winner. To me that is Gravity or 12YAS. I would say the messiness of American Hustle fits in its editing but few people consider that a strength.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 1/19/14 at 6:09pm

Cuaron is winning the DGA and Director Oscar regardless of the Picture race. The PGA and Oscar have matched every year since the Academy adopted the preferential ballot system (which the PGA also uses). I think whatever movie wins tonight is the big frontrunner, if HUSTLE wins tonight, it'll be unstoppable. If it wins Picture, it might go down as one of the movies to win Picture and almost nothing else. GRAVITY is gonna sweep the technical categories and win Director.

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/19/14 at 6:20pm

I also predict Costumes and Production Design to go to The Great Gatsby.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 1/19/14 at 7:02pm

Gravity's in production design though. The academy has leaned toward CGI in both cinematography and design. I just think Gravity regardless of how people feel about practical vs. CGI, is above and beyond their competition in both design and cinematography.

Honestly so long as Megan Ellison gets an Oscar is what I care about because I'll just imagine it is for every movie she produced that I loved more than Hustle for that honor. So if Hustle just won that, fine. Although it seems still a little too unusual. Even Argo got thrown a Screenplay and Editing win, and it had one acting nomination and no director nod.

[Jane2]

Posted: 1/19/14 at 7:20pm

Will someone tell me what time and network they're on?

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/19/14 at 10:13pm

Gravity winning Production Design would be a joke. Visual Effects, sure. Production Design would be a huge blunder.

[xxdrewboy85xx]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 1:04am

Gravity and 12 Years a Slave tied the PGA Awards!

[bobs3]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 1:37am

I will make the following guesses:

Picture: 12 Years a Slave (with American Hustle as a surprise upset)
Actor: Matthew McConaughey (there is absolutely no way he will lose -- he is a well liked actor who gives the best performance of his career)
Actress: Cate Blanchett
Supporting Actor: Jared Leto (again, no way he will lose)
Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o (with possible Jennifer Lawrence upset but she won Best Actress last year so they will probably want to spread the awards around)
Director: Alfonso Cuarón (pretty much a given)
Animated film: Frozen (but I will keep my fingers crossed for The Wind Rises)
Original screenplay: American Hustle (with Her as a wild card)
Adapted screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Music score: Gravity
Song: (this is a hard one but "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom would seem to be the sentimental choice -- it is about Nelson Mandela for God's sake.

The others, I don't really care.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 1:55am

Wow. And just like that, GRAVITY becomes a real contender for the Oscar.

I do still think 12YAS will win, and it deserves to. GRAVITY and HUSTLE are wonderful movies and would top my list easily in any other year, but 12YAS is in another league entirely. What a great year for movies.

[tazber]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 7:18am

It seems like it's always been between Gravity and 12 Years.

I'm thinking American Hustle has a real shot at an upset.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 7:53am

I'm mostly in agreement with bobs3 but...

American Hustle at this point wouldn't be an upset at all. Ever since it surprisingly - and in my opinion deservedly - won with the NY Film Critics, it's been on a steady climb. In addition to intelligence and irrepressible energy, the movie has stronger characters and a great deal more heart than any other release this year. Count me as one who expected, based on the novel, that 12 Years a Slave would have a great deal more heart and be much richer in its characters - not to suggest that I didn't like the movie; I did, there's much to admire in it; but I still found it a disappointment. As I've said before, it seems that there was an effort to "desentimentalize" Northrup's memoir for the screen, but in my opinion this also de-cinema-tized much of the narrative. The most emotional and memorable moments in the movie are Nyong'o's and I expect she will win.

As far as best actor, I think it's just too close to call. I wouldn't completely rule out Dern or Dicaprio. Only Bale seems unlikely to me, and not that he isn't deserving. To the contrary, he gave a career best performance in one of the most beloved movies of the year. Bale won't win for the same reason Lawrence won't win: they both recently gave good, but not nearly as good as their work in Hustle, performances in other movies by David O'Russell, and got oscars for those performances.

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 9:12am

With three movies running neck-and-neck for the top prize, it might help to look at Oscars past. Then again, it might only confuse the issue.

People say it's a strong year for movies, but there is also no clear head-and-shoulders, above-the-rest winner. It may be strong on one level, but there are big detractions to each of those frontrunners.

Gravity - No sci fi movie has ever won Best Picture. That's ever.

American Hustle - it's rare for a comedy (or a film that's largely a comedy) to win Best Picture. It happens, but not very often.

12 Years a Slave - it's rare for a film with such a grave, harsh story told in such a relentless way to win best picture. Only a few come to mind: Schndler's List, Platoon, The Deer Hunter, and maybe The Hurt Locker. This is not a normal type of drama to win Best Picture. They win about as often as comedies do.

So as many plusses as you think they have, they each have some pretty big minuses. But that has made for a tight race (as it often does) when there is no clear frontrunner.

[Jane2]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 10:21am

I know mine is a dissenting opinion, but I don't think any of the films are oscar worthy. Not one of them struck me as "wow" that was good! And the only performances I thought were remarkable were McConaughey's and Leto's.

They just can't make 'em the way they used to.

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 11:34am

Jane, I haven't seen enough of the movies to offer a full agreement of your opinion, but based on what I have seen, that's exactly how I feel.

It's not that this is an incredibly strong year, it's that this is an incredibly mediocre year with no real standouts, so that makes the competition a little tighter. It also makes for a more interesting awards telecast, even if history is not likely to note this as anything approaching an outstanding year for films.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 11:48am

This race is BANANAS.

Ever since in 2009 when AMPAS went into a preferential ballot like the PGA has, the PGA Awards have **never** been incorrect as a precursor. A tie? How? I'm willing to bet that either Gravity or 12 Years a Slave inched out the other in terms of overall points but one of them had much more 1st place votes in a very close race.

BAFTAs are gonna be fun. All 3 films have a case. 12 Years a Slave has a British director with a cast that has UK ties, Gravity is a British made film with David Heyman, who produced the Harry Potter films that basically had all of BAFTA working in it (plus Gravity got a screenplay nod that it has not gotten anywhere else from major precursors), and BAFTA was the only precursor that correctly had American Hustle in all four acting categories.

With some time since I last post, I can definitely buy Hustle as the lone picture winner. In DOR's other 2 other Academy films, they both front-loaded in major categories and only had 3 wins to show for it despite 15 total nominations- all 3 winners in acting. Those 3 winners only had one who felt vulnerable, Lawrence in a 3-actress race with Riva and Chastain, while Melissa Leo and Christian Bale were undeniable winning every precursor in sight. Lawrence is not aggressively campaigning due to her schedule and she is again probably their best shot but I think if Nyong'o wins at BAFTA the Oscar is effectively hers to lose. If Hustle somehow loses at WGA, Spike Jonze is a threat, then I think it could win Picture without anything else. But I think Gravity is easily going to win the most Oscars. I do have questions though. If the preferential ballot is correct, do we at least have a split picture and director? Or will this be the first time the PGA Awards get it wrong since the AMPAS followed their lead?

Jane, I disagree. Gravity, even if I had some issues with it, and 12 Years a Slave were both one of the better theater experiences I've had in some time and are films I cannot imagine being made by anybody other than their directors. I noted back in the thread on the death of the medium-sized film by big studios but one thing I really liked about this year is that the movies I loved the most **had** to be experienced in a theater. Of all the sins done by Harvey Weinstein, and there are lots, him pushing screener culture might be the worst. It made the movies a TV/laptop event.







Updated On: 1/20/14 at 11:48 AM

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 12:01pm

I think Cuaron is the frontrunner for Best Director, but if he loses the Oscar (presumably right before they give out Best Picture), it will be telling as to what the Best Picture choice will be. If McQueen wins Best Director, that almost assures 12 Years a Slave will get Best Pic. Same with Russell. If he wins Director, American Hustle is likely to win Best Pic.

But I don't think a Cuaron win means Gravity will get Best Pic, even as the frontrunner. I do think a split is likely, if he wins.

(Again, no sci-fi movie has ever won Best Picture.)

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 12:08pm

I'm with strummergirl, I think this is a remarkable years for movies. The kind of work directors, actors, writers are churning out is incredible and to see producers funding the type of material that made it onto the screen this year is encouraging. I'm glad no movie has emerged as the clear standout, I hate it when that happens; I think the fact that hasn't happened this year is that there are so many great films that they can't find just one to shower with a gazillion awards. Even looking at the films that didn't get in for Picture, there's movies I know I'll return to over and over again: INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS, BLUE JASMINE, SAVING MR. BANKS, FRANCES HA, THE HEAT, all wonderful movies in their own right.
AMERICAN HUSTLE is my beloved movie of the year, and I hope it wins. The PGA loss pretty much indicates to me it's between GRAVITY and 12 YEARS A SLAVE, but what if those two split the vote an AMERICAN HUSTLE wins? I'm gonna say GRAVITY wins now, but it's a very exciting race.

[Jane2]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 12:44pm

Well said, Best. that's how I feel. I was trying to remember the last films that I thought were great, to see how long ago they were. the most recent I could think of was Black Swan, and that was years ago. And way before that, Requiem for a Dream. Both Darren Arenofsky films.

[strummergirl]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 2:46pm

Explanation of the tie. Given how terrible it was revealed about the voting processes for NSFC and NYFCC, maybe the critics awards should follow the lead of the PGA. The reasoning makes sense.
Not even reapportioning could decide it

[best12bars]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 4:44pm

I still think the "new" process is bizarre and unnecessary. How about the one with the most votes wins? And if there's a tie for the most votes, then it's a tie.

Is that too complicated for them?

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 1/20/14 at 6:01pm

Besty, you can go away with your logic. The one with the most votes wins? That would just be ridiculous. Let's instead make it ridiculously complicated so that no one--particularly the people voting--has any idea of how the voting process happens. That makes the most sense, right? Right?...Right?

Updated On: 1/20/14 at 06:01 PM