I don't mean to sound like the old scraggly guy whittling on a front porch and sayin', "Mark my words, there's trouble a-brewin'!"
Okay, that IS me.
But I'm seriously scared that people "in the know" aren't calling this for what it is. They KNOW that the market isn't done dropping yet, and they KNOW that people still can't afford today's housing prices, even if they've dropped significantly...
...and still they say, "Let's put a big Band-Aid on it, and it will all heal up in front of our eyes, so we can go back to living in our $650K McMansions, just as we were before!"
Not gonna happen. And I'm not a financial analyst. I'm just someone who's been trying to buy a house for a couple of years and has been HORRIFIED by what I've been seeing."
Here's what I think we should do (trying not to be Nellie Negative this time):
1) Adjust all homes back down to the affordable rate. Simple math: The average income multiplied by 2.7 = the cost of an average home in the area. Adjust accordingly now. It's coming in 18 months anyway.
2) The bad news: You're home isn't worth as much as you thought it was. The good news: Your mortgage rate is now adjusted (through an act of congress) to reflect the current value of your home. So, you don't have as much money, but you're not paying as much for your house anymore, either!
3) The government funds available now should be used for the exclusive cause of bridging the (ugly) gap between what the banks thought you'd be paying them (in some messed up universe where a $5000 per month mortgage was "realistic") and the actual mortgage you'll pay them now in the real world.
Now, I'd love for someone to tell me why this wouldn't work... or why it would work! Or how it might work, if... etc.
I'm no financial expert. I just think we shouldn't wait for the inevitable. Adjust now, fix the actual problem we have, not just the "halfway" part of it, and work on pulling out of this eye-opening nightmare again.
Any thoughts? Seriously, I'm hoping people out there who are way smarter than me on these matters are brainstorming in the real world. Because all I see right now is that everyone who knows better is in total denial. TOTAL. DENIAL.
Oh, and my rule of thumb? Anyone who says, "We might be heading for a recession, if we don't fix this problem now!" They already lose all credibility with me. They've got their head in the sand. I don't listen to anything else they have to say.
We ARE in a recession right now, and have been for the past 18 months.
We are now trying desperately to avoid a Great Depression.
And we're losing that battle more and more each day. And I won't trust any analyst who doesn't START with that idea, before they offer solutions on how to fix it.
"Jaws is the Citizen Kane of movies."
blocked: logan2, Diamonds3, Hamilton22
Updated On: 10/8/08 at 07:39 PM