#126
Posted: 9/11/04 at 1:22pm
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 — Page 6
#127
Posted: 9/12/04 at 1:48pm
September 12 - Kerry 273 Bush 233
Projected Final - Kerry 255 Bush 263
Projected Final Senate - 48 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 1 independent
This is a fantastic graph: http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html
Projected Final - Kerry 255 Bush 263
Projected Final Senate - 48 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 1 independent
This is a fantastic graph: http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html
#128
Posted: 9/12/04 at 2:17pm
Election too close to call, analysis shows
Observers warn Bush edge in polls may evaporate
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/topstory/2789794
Observers warn Bush edge in polls may evaporate
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/topstory/2789794
#129
Posted: 9/13/04 at 7:44am
#130
Posted: 9/14/04 at 10:26am
#131
Posted: 9/14/04 at 10:30am
That's not good, is it?
Nothing precious, plain to see, don't make a fuss over me. Not loud, not soft, but somewhere inbetween. Say sorry, just let it be the word you mean.
#132
Posted: 9/14/04 at 10:35am
"only for now"
#133
Posted: 9/14/04 at 10:41am
so, the florida division of elections is putting ralph nader on the ballot despite the court order not to do so?
#134
Posted: 9/15/04 at 7:55am
sept. 15th, 2004
current - kerry 238 bush 296
projected final - kerry 248 bush 285
current - kerry 238 bush 296
projected final - kerry 248 bush 285
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#135
Posted: 9/15/04 at 10:45pm
Election 2004
Date Bush Kerry
Today 47.3 46.4
Sept 14 47.1 46.5
Sept 13 47.2 46.4
Sept 12 48.3 45.2
Sept 11 47.5 46.1
Sept 10 47.8 46.2
Sept 9 47.5 46.8
Sept 8 48.2 46.5
Sept 7 47.3 47.3
Sept 6 47.6 46.5
Sept 5 47.6 46.4
Sept 4 49.1 44.7
source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
BATTLEGROUND STATES
September 11, 2004--In the sixteen-Battleground States that are likely to determine the winner of Election 2004, President Bush and Senator Kerry are now tied at 47%. A week ago, coming right out of the Republican National Convention, the President was ahead, 48% to 45%.....
source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Battleground%20States.htm
Guess Kerry isn't flailing so badly after all.
Date Bush Kerry
Today 47.3 46.4
Sept 14 47.1 46.5
Sept 13 47.2 46.4
Sept 12 48.3 45.2
Sept 11 47.5 46.1
Sept 10 47.8 46.2
Sept 9 47.5 46.8
Sept 8 48.2 46.5
Sept 7 47.3 47.3
Sept 6 47.6 46.5
Sept 5 47.6 46.4
Sept 4 49.1 44.7
source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
BATTLEGROUND STATES
September 11, 2004--In the sixteen-Battleground States that are likely to determine the winner of Election 2004, President Bush and Senator Kerry are now tied at 47%. A week ago, coming right out of the Republican National Convention, the President was ahead, 48% to 45%.....
source: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Battleground%20States.htm
Guess Kerry isn't flailing so badly after all.
#136
Posted: 9/15/04 at 10:52pm
of course there's the new survey usa poll that has him down 4 pts in new jersey. new jersey!! but hey, that's just one state.
http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html
http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#137
Posted: 9/15/04 at 10:53pm
and
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm
Things are still so very up in the air--despite how terrible Kerry's campaign supposedly is. All he has to do is focus it, and things will just slide on over his way.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm
Things are still so very up in the air--despite how terrible Kerry's campaign supposedly is. All he has to do is focus it, and things will just slide on over his way.
#138
Posted: 9/15/04 at 10:56pm
oh he'll slide all right, but then that slide has already begun and nobody, not even clinton's dream team who've been brought in, can stop it now.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#139
Posted: 9/15/04 at 10:57pm
Camping out by this thread I see. Can't bear for a pro-Kerry post to resonate without a little papalovesbush pee in the lemonade, huh, sugar? 
#140
Posted: 9/15/04 at 11:00pm
it's mountain dew and i see you've been reading the blogs too. don't wory, it's beddy bye time, you and punk'd can post all night without fear of reality bursting your bubbles. nighty night.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#141
Posted: 9/15/04 at 11:02pm
Darlin, I don't do blogs--you do. I just stumbled into Rasmussen and enjoyed the delights I found.
No burst bubbles here--my bubbles are flying high!
No burst bubbles here--my bubbles are flying high!
Updated On: 9/15/04 at 11:02 PM
#142
Posted: 9/16/04 at 12:17pm
#143
Posted: 9/17/04 at 12:58am
WASHINGTON — President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year.
#144
Posted: 9/17/04 at 10:17am
well, d, while the numbers this poll calls out make me personally giggle with glee and fill me with a desire to party like it's 1999, i have to recall that the gallup poll in '00 was kinda like watching a pogo stick. at one point it bounced 17 points in one week. while rasmussen has gw back up by almost 5 as of yesterday (we'll see if that lasts) and the iowa electronic markets have georgie running away with this thing, it's still september and there are just as many if not more polls showing this thing as tighter than dean martin onstage at the sands.
kerry has a much better chance at being able to swing this thing if he can find a message and stick to it. but he's getting too much conflicting advice from too many corners. every interest group has him doing a day on their cause which makes him sound disjointed. the clinton folks, if they can smooth out his message and simplify if will help him tighten this thing. however, stuff like the latest moveon.org commercial which basically advocates cutting and running in iraq (as does a piece by howard zinn in today's newsday http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-vpzin173974495sep17,0,219579.story?coll=ny-viewpoints-headlines) don't help him any. the reality is that there are too many people at the top of his campaign and at the top of the democratic party with too many conflicting views and the result is a campaign that looks haphazard at best. there's too much sniping from the sidelines. he's on his what? 4th set of top advisors?
there's 46 days to the election. probably two debates where kerry's got the chance to make george look like an idiot. but realistically all george has to do is not get flustered and he'll come out smelling like a rose. can he do that? i dunno. i think he can. the other thing is that kerry has to try to keep on message once he finds one. that's gonna be tough with the swiftees prepping another broadside and the forgery tale still percolating. plus more gop 527s are prepping stuff and the democrats at the top are getting antsy with recent polls showing bush close in ny, leading in nj and tight in other battlegrounds (while probably mythical they are out there and people see 'em and get crazed), it just adds to a sense of urgency borderline desperation out of the kerry camp (and even more so from the 527s and the grassroots partisans) that you're not seeing from the bush side.
kerry can make it a contest, but it's gonna take a herculean effort for him to win and i don't think he's got it in him.
kerry has a much better chance at being able to swing this thing if he can find a message and stick to it. but he's getting too much conflicting advice from too many corners. every interest group has him doing a day on their cause which makes him sound disjointed. the clinton folks, if they can smooth out his message and simplify if will help him tighten this thing. however, stuff like the latest moveon.org commercial which basically advocates cutting and running in iraq (as does a piece by howard zinn in today's newsday http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-vpzin173974495sep17,0,219579.story?coll=ny-viewpoints-headlines) don't help him any. the reality is that there are too many people at the top of his campaign and at the top of the democratic party with too many conflicting views and the result is a campaign that looks haphazard at best. there's too much sniping from the sidelines. he's on his what? 4th set of top advisors?
there's 46 days to the election. probably two debates where kerry's got the chance to make george look like an idiot. but realistically all george has to do is not get flustered and he'll come out smelling like a rose. can he do that? i dunno. i think he can. the other thing is that kerry has to try to keep on message once he finds one. that's gonna be tough with the swiftees prepping another broadside and the forgery tale still percolating. plus more gop 527s are prepping stuff and the democrats at the top are getting antsy with recent polls showing bush close in ny, leading in nj and tight in other battlegrounds (while probably mythical they are out there and people see 'em and get crazed), it just adds to a sense of urgency borderline desperation out of the kerry camp (and even more so from the 527s and the grassroots partisans) that you're not seeing from the bush side.
kerry can make it a contest, but it's gonna take a herculean effort for him to win and i don't think he's got it in him.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#145
Posted: 9/17/04 at 10:26am
I'm just interested in how the reporting of polls is used to manipulate public opinion. The Gallup group is what is most recognizable to the general public (by name, anyway) and it gets reported in the 'pop' news arena (ie - USAToday.)
#146
Posted: 9/17/04 at 10:33am
well that goes back to the question that we were talking about the other day. how does the news affect the population when it comes to polls, i.e. do bad numbers drive readers to be more apathetic and merely accept the conventional wisdom, or does it make them be committed to work that much harder to get out the vote to change the paradigm?
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#147
Posted: 9/17/04 at 10:41am
That's the same question there always is in this situation, papa. Like you, I'm wondering if this much-discussed 'climate of dissension' translates into anything different. I have my doubts, having become inurred to American apathy long ago.
#148
Posted: 9/17/04 at 10:45am
there's also this theory about polls from jimmy breslin in newsday (newsday keeps popping up for some reason) which should give some hope to anyone who's feeling down about the johnnies chances after seeing those numbers.
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/newyork/columnists/ny-nybres163973220sep16,0,5538561.column
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/newyork/columnists/ny-nybres163973220sep16,0,5538561.column
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#149
Posted: 9/17/04 at 12:35pm
It is very interesting how the various polls come to different conclusions. My feeling is that the polls aren't reflecting anywhere near what will happen on Nov 2. I don't know exactly what that means--people could come out of the woodworks on both sides. Or, in all liklihood, we will still have as tight as race as last time. Who knows?
#150
Posted: 9/17/04 at 12:36pm
The "undecideds" are more likely to turn against the president than for him. The situation in Iraq is rapidly turning into America's greatest nightmare.
The National Intelligence Estimate quoted in the Times yesterday says that we have failed in Iraq, miserably and fighteningly. The best case is continuing along the bloody lines it's at right now. The worst case (and more likely) scenario is all-out civil war, which will result in tens of thoussands of dead Iraqis, for whihc we will be blamed, and a fundamentalist government wordse than the Taliban or Iran. The middle ground is spiralling extremism, fueled by the same hatred for the United States we saw on 9/11, only with nukes.
So Dubya squandered the goodwill of the world after 9/11 and the progress he made in Afghanistan to fight an unjust war that will end up making the world LESS SAFE than it was 6 months after 9/11.
If this country goes with Bush, I seriously fear for our safety and freedom. I really believe the neo-cons who control the Oval Office are dangerous.
The National Intelligence Estimate quoted in the Times yesterday says that we have failed in Iraq, miserably and fighteningly. The best case is continuing along the bloody lines it's at right now. The worst case (and more likely) scenario is all-out civil war, which will result in tens of thoussands of dead Iraqis, for whihc we will be blamed, and a fundamentalist government wordse than the Taliban or Iran. The middle ground is spiralling extremism, fueled by the same hatred for the United States we saw on 9/11, only with nukes.
So Dubya squandered the goodwill of the world after 9/11 and the progress he made in Afghanistan to fight an unjust war that will end up making the world LESS SAFE than it was 6 months after 9/11.
If this country goes with Bush, I seriously fear for our safety and freedom. I really believe the neo-cons who control the Oval Office are dangerous.
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