I just want to keep a running tab on each day's prediction to see if there are any discernable patterns. This can also be a thread to post additional electoral predictions.
Not to burst your bubble or anything, but NC isnt a "weak Bush state" as far as I know. I didnt look into how they came up with these, but as far as I know, we are pretty much Bush country. In 2000 we were 2nd most for Bush, following Texas. But this is an interesting site. Thanks for the link!
"My friends have made the story of my life."
-Helen Keller
while that site is an interesting one, it is admittedly run by a kerry supporter. i'm not sayingit compromises the site's integrity, it's something to keep in mind.
that's a more non-partisan link to a guy who's been doing this for quite some time. talking points memo's josh marshall references this as one of the better one's around and he's so far to the left he makes lenin look conservative.
that's another non partisan site. it's good to keep an open mind about these things, lest you get too confident or too depressed.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
millie42, if you put your cursor over the state it will give you a box that states the % and the latest poll used. Right now it's Bush 51% to Kerry 46%, which is considered "weak"...it could change. It's stronger than "barely" though, which is under 5% which DO change. In 2000, Bush carried NC by 13% so he seems to have lost some ground.
The latest poll for NC is Survey USA, dated Aug. 15th.
Even though the site is run by a Kerry supporter, he uses the latest reputable polls. When Survey USA is the latest poll, he uses that for all the states it covers, whether they are Kerry, Bush, or somewhere in-between.
The difference between the electoral vote predictor and the other two sites that papa referenced is that the EVP lists the "barely" states, 5% or less, in one candidates tally or another, while the other two put them in "toss-up" and don't count them. They are certainly up for grabs, but EVP gives you the "if the election were held today" picture. According to the polls, anyway. Which, as we know, are not always right!!
Talking to myself now....Ohio has been put into "barely Bush" by 1%, making the current spread Kerry 286-Bush 233.
And there was this interesting little paragraph at the bottom of the description of new polls:
"There is an amusing article about election websites in the Philadelphia Daily News. The reporter was a bit surprised that this site and a highly pro-Bush site, www.electionprojection.com have almost the same score. After all, telling the truth is so passé these days. You have to register to see the article, but registration is free."
Well I actually worked for a research firm that conducts a lot of the big polls and I'll tell you this: It is random dialing. But, that said, you have a better chance of having an older, conservative-leaning person complete the survery than having a young liberal go through it.
Mattio, I've always wondered about that. Do they rely on public listings? I've had an unlisted number for some years. The polls always say "likely voters" yet I've voted in every election since 1972 and have NEVER been polled. How much "likelier" do I have to be??????
It has nothing to do with being listed or unlisted. It's completely random dialing. Half the numbers I dialed were disconnected. When they say "among likely voters", that means that there was a question like "How likely are you to vote?" and they said either Fairly Likely or Very Likely.
Why bother to count votes? I can tell you that Bush is going to win. There is no surprise there.
If anyone ever tells you that you put too much Parmesan cheese on your pasta, stop talking to them. You don't need that kind of negativity in your life.
Child, you know very well that no one can predict who is going to win. Even IIIIII know better than to say that Kerry is definitely going to win (even though he quite clearly is unless your man can rig a second election...)
jrb, I can predict who is going to win. There are other things that I can tell you are going to happen, but I don't think that you would be able to handle the information.
If anyone ever tells you that you put too much Parmesan cheese on your pasta, stop talking to them. You don't need that kind of negativity in your life.
these poll numbers do not bode well for your guy, jrb.
look at the fall off in support since the convention. i know it's just one poll. but he should be leading by a lot more. or at least consolidating his lead.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
oh please--this has been said ad nauseum by Bush supporters. The truth is--most people are decided, therefore not much change could really happen. And those that are undecided may not do so until they step into the booth to vote.
I feel very pleased with current standings. The RNC will make a difference or not. And then there are the debates--the biggest part of helping undecideds decide.
did you read the poll #'s? specifically the 12 point swing in independant voters to bush since the convention? i mean c'mon, kerry'd managed to tie bush among veterans (veterans!) after the convention and has managed to fritter that away in an 18 point swing. but if you're happy, that's good. at least we're both happy with these numbers.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
Darlin', I'm much happier where the electoral votes count. You can be happy with the popular vote numbers if you like. My oh my how things have reversed in 4 years...
eh, i'm still placing my faith in the old timers like cook who have george ahead with 10 states undecided. although, i must admit that cook is pessimistic about bush's chances to woo the undecideds.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
so that's where andrew sullivan has been. it's really no news that charlie cook has been saying this. it's been his opinion since the democratic primary at least when he was giving after convention commentary on charlie rose. he's basing it on the idea that independents generally vote for change, or at least that was his argument when i saw him. i am not too sure i agree with him completely as i think kerry's a bit more vulnerable to being painted as inconsistent which is to my mind deadly in a time of war. but that's just my opinion.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
i'm personally pulling for bush to re-enact the lindy england leash pic and drag osama up the aisle of the garden kicking him in the ass every few steps.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
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