Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
#0Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
Posted: 8/20/04 at 2:09am
I just want to keep a running tab on each day's prediction to see if there are any discernable patterns. This can also be a thread to post additional electoral predictions.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
AUGUST 19, 2004 - Kerry 301 Bush 213
Mattio98
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/10/03
#1re: Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
Posted: 8/20/04 at 2:12amOh please lord let that prediction come true!!!
Millie42
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/19/04
#2re: Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
Posted: 8/20/04 at 2:35amNot to burst your bubble or anything, but NC isnt a "weak Bush state" as far as I know. I didnt look into how they came up with these, but as far as I know, we are pretty much Bush country. In 2000 we were 2nd most for Bush, following Texas. But this is an interesting site. Thanks for the link!
"My friends have made the story of my life."
-Helen Keller
#3re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/20/04 at 7:36am
while that site is an interesting one, it is admittedly run by a kerry supporter. i'm not sayingit compromises the site's integrity, it's something to keep in mind.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/presidential/current.php
that's a more non-partisan link to a guy who's been doing this for quite some time. talking points memo's josh marshall references this as one of the better one's around and he's so far to the left he makes lenin look conservative.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm
that's another non partisan site. it's good to keep an open mind about these things, lest you get too confident or too depressed.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
Sunfish
Broadway Star Joined: 6/11/03
#4re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/20/04 at 11:21am
millie42, if you put your cursor over the state it will give you a box that states the % and the latest poll used. Right now it's Bush 51% to Kerry 46%, which is considered "weak"...it could change. It's stronger than "barely" though, which is under 5% which DO change. In 2000, Bush carried NC by 13% so he seems to have lost some ground.
The latest poll for NC is Survey USA, dated Aug. 15th.
Even though the site is run by a Kerry supporter, he uses the latest reputable polls. When Survey USA is the latest poll, he uses that for all the states it covers, whether they are Kerry, Bush, or somewhere in-between.
The difference between the electoral vote predictor and the other two sites that papa referenced is that the EVP lists the "barely" states, 5% or less, in one candidates tally or another, while the other two put them in "toss-up" and don't count them. They are certainly up for grabs, but EVP gives you the "if the election were held today" picture. According to the polls, anyway. Which, as we know, are not always right!!
Sunfish
Broadway Star Joined: 6/11/03
#5re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 4:15pm
Talking to myself now....Ohio has been put into "barely Bush" by 1%, making the current spread Kerry 286-Bush 233.
And there was this interesting little paragraph at the bottom of the description of new polls:
"There is an amusing article about election websites in the Philadelphia Daily News. The reporter was a bit surprised that this site and a highly pro-Bush site, www.electionprojection.com have almost the same score. After all, telling the truth is so passé these days. You have to register to see the article, but registration is free."
Mattio98
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/10/03
#6re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 4:22pmWell I actually worked for a research firm that conducts a lot of the big polls and I'll tell you this: It is random dialing. But, that said, you have a better chance of having an older, conservative-leaning person complete the survery than having a young liberal go through it.
#7re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 4:42pmOh god! This is my first election to take part in!! I haven't been following the Political world......WhatSoEver!! hehe......Anyone else in my boat???
Sunfish
Broadway Star Joined: 6/11/03
#8re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 5:12pmMattio, I've always wondered about that. Do they rely on public listings? I've had an unlisted number for some years. The polls always say "likely voters" yet I've voted in every election since 1972 and have NEVER been polled. How much "likelier" do I have to be??????
Mattio98
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/10/03
#9re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 7:05pmIt has nothing to do with being listed or unlisted. It's completely random dialing. Half the numbers I dialed were disconnected. When they say "among likely voters", that means that there was a question like "How likely are you to vote?" and they said either Fairly Likely or Very Likely.
Gothampc
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/20/03
#10re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 7:50pmWhy bother to count votes? I can tell you that Bush is going to win. There is no surprise there.
If anyone ever tells you that you put too much Parmesan cheese on your pasta, stop talking to them. You don't need that kind of negativity in your life.
#11re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 7:54pm
Gotham: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!
Child, you know very well that no one can predict who is going to win. Even IIIIII know better than to say that Kerry is definitely going to win (even though he quite clearly is unless your man can rig a second election...)
Updated On: 8/21/04 at 07:54 PM
Gothampc
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/20/03
#12re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 7:57pmjrb, I can predict who is going to win. There are other things that I can tell you are going to happen, but I don't think that you would be able to handle the information.
If anyone ever tells you that you put too much Parmesan cheese on your pasta, stop talking to them. You don't need that kind of negativity in your life.
#13re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 8:01pm
nice--go ahead and support that lovely notion of "knowing" he is going to win because of some heinous reason.
Wouldn't it be neat if he could win the old fashioned way, darlin'?
But, go ahead--I can handle it, baby. TELL ME what IS going to happen that will make sure he wins...
Updated On: 8/21/04 at 08:01 PM
BwayTheatre11
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/25/03
#14re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 9:27pmI would love for Kerry to win, but there is no way to tell that he will. Same thing with Bush. You never know...
CCM '10!
#15re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 10:14pm
these poll numbers do not bode well for your guy, jrb.
look at the fall off in support since the convention. i know it's just one poll. but he should be leading by a lot more. or at least consolidating his lead.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/08/19/opinion/polls/main637122.shtml
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#16re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 10:19pm
oh please--this has been said ad nauseum by Bush supporters. The truth is--most people are decided, therefore not much change could really happen. And those that are undecided may not do so until they step into the booth to vote.
I feel very pleased with current standings. The RNC will make a difference or not. And then there are the debates--the biggest part of helping undecideds decide.
Updated On: 8/21/04 at 10:19 PM
#17re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 10:24pm
did you read the poll #'s? specifically the 12 point swing in independant voters to bush since the convention? i mean c'mon, kerry'd managed to tie bush among veterans (veterans!) after the convention and has managed to fritter that away in an 18 point swing. but if you're happy, that's good. at least we're both happy with these numbers. 
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#18re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 10:25pmDarlin', I'm much happier where the electoral votes count. You can be happy with the popular vote numbers if you like. My oh my how things have reversed in 4 years...
#19re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/21/04 at 10:33pmeh, i'm still placing my faith in the old timers like cook who have george ahead with 10 states undecided. although, i must admit that cook is pessimistic about bush's chances to woo the undecideds.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#20re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/23/04 at 10:07am
Interesting article:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10531791%5E2703,00.html
August 22 - Kerry 286 Bush 233
#21re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/23/04 at 10:53amso that's where andrew sullivan has been. it's really no news that charlie cook has been saying this. it's been his opinion since the democratic primary at least when he was giving after convention commentary on charlie rose. he's basing it on the idea that independents generally vote for change, or at least that was his argument when i saw him. i am not too sure i agree with him completely as i think kerry's a bit more vulnerable to being painted as inconsistent which is to my mind deadly in a time of war. but that's just my opinion.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#22re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/23/04 at 2:39pmdare i ask? are they going to do it with the voting machines or are they going to trot up osama as bush delivers his acceptance speech?
#23re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/23/04 at 2:45pmi'm personally pulling for bush to re-enact the lindy england leash pic and drag osama up the aisle of the garden kicking him in the ass every few steps.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#24re: electoral vote predictor 2004
Posted: 8/23/04 at 2:47pmJust like his momma used to do to him when he was a youngin'
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