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Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 — Page 5

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#101

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/5/04 at 8:06pm

oh no, mr. flabbypants. i am so not going to *clap* pump you up! oh, wait, too late...hans, what am i to do know?
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#103

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/5/04 at 8:54pm

you encourage her to climb every mountain. and yodel. lotsa yodeling.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#104

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/6/04 at 9:43am

sept. 6th, 2004 - kerry 247 bush 275
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#105

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/6/04 at 8:08pm

CNN Poll: Did either political convention cause you to change your vote?
Yes - 8%
No - 92%

Poll: Bush apparently gets modest bounce
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/06/presidential.poll/index.html

Of particular interest: Incumbents have gotten an average bounce of slightly more than 6 points in previous elections, so Bush's apparent bounce seems small by historical standards.

Kerry got no bounce coming out of the Democratic convention, making Bush's movement appear robust.

Still, the 2 percentage point bounce could be illusory, since the poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
__________________________

So, I wouldn't get too worried just yet that Bush is that ahead. We'll see as things matriculate.
johnraymondbarker.com
#106

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/6/04 at 8:30pm

where'd ya get the 92-8 number? was that part of this poll? that's not one of those online polls is it?

an interesting number that you leave out that could be very important to the election is the fact that the % of people who think that the war in iraq was a mistake is down to 38% from 48% in the last week of august. that's a big swing in a short time. whether it is a serious shift (especially given today's news out of the shooting gallery) or just rah rah politics, time will tell.

i think that if the issue of the recent russian tragedy seeps into the american dialogue that those points that were made at the rnc about fighting a war over there so it doesn't get fought over here will start to resonate more and more. but if today is any indication, the networks will spend little or no time on beslan. while the bbc on the other hand made it the focus of almost half their broadcast tonight, the nets were busy with clinton, frances and fallujah. it's interesting to see how the world views what is news.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#107

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/6/04 at 8:35pm

As much as I hate to say it, I think Bush is going to run away with the election.
A classic is something that everybody wants to have read and nobody wants to read - Mark Twain
#108

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/7/04 at 12:55am

I didn't leave anything out--the article is linked where anyone can see the numbers for themselves. Some numbers are good for Bush. Some are not. I also know that the full rewards of the bounce will not be seen until this week when polls reflect the post-RNC snapshot. And, yes, I want you to enjoy this while it lasts.


johnraymondbarker.com
#109

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/7/04 at 1:13am

"but if today is any indication, the networks will spend little or no time on beslan."

It is very interesting to see what the media's priorities are. One of the things that I would love to see change.
My avatar is a reminder to myself. I need lots of reminders...
#110

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/7/04 at 7:55am

sept. 7th, 2004 - kerry 237 bush 275

and for jrb

projected final numbers:

sept. 7th, 2004 - kerry 276 bush 237
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective

Updated On: 9/7/04 at 07:55 AM

#111

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/8/04 at 10:34am

sept. 8th

current - kerry 264 bush 222

projected final - kerry 265 bush 232

and thus the pendulum swings back on the force of zogby polls.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#113

re: electoral vote predictor 2004

Posted: 9/8/04 at 10:39am

d, not now, i'm combing my hair.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#114

Whoa! What Happened?!!

Posted: 9/8/04 at 11:44am

September 7, 2004

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 264 Bush 222
#115

attack of the zogby!

Posted: 9/8/04 at 11:48am

wca, quick, look up.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#116

attack of the zogby!

Posted: 9/8/04 at 11:49am

Bush schmush
Stop worrying about what I'm doing -- focus instead on what you're eating.
#118

swinging medallions

Posted: 9/9/04 at 7:32am

sept. 9th, 2004

current - kerry 243 bush 254

projected final - kerry 255 bush 263
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#119

swinging medallions

Posted: 9/9/04 at 10:37am

good god. These numbers don't sit still for a second, do they.
Just goes to show that I've always thought the margin of error on most polls ought to be +/- 20% or so.
#120

swinging medallions

Posted: 9/9/04 at 12:36pm

I just want to know who they're polling. Nobody asked me.
"What can you expect from a bunch of seitan worshippers?" - Reginald Tresilian
#121

swinging medallions

Posted: 9/9/04 at 12:46pm

Yes, it's pretty odd. I'm never asked either.

And I never see any Bush/Cheney buttons anywhere...only Kerry/Edwards.

Of course, Matt, we live in Illinois which is not a swing state.
#122

swinging medallions

Posted: 9/9/04 at 10:12pm

I am not the least bit worried. In addition to Micheal Moore, I have read many articles discussing that this is so not over--and that Bush's bounce is not as big a deal as one might think--for one thing, the polls can't agree on how big it is--if at all.

So, keep fighting away. IMHO: We are still winning.
johnraymondbarker.com

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