2008 Tony Predictions for Best Musical

[jagfkb]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:22pm

thought it'd be a cool idea to start the predictions now and see how they change both after shows open and after the nominations ar announced:

Best Musical Nominations:

In the Heights-
However, if the show closes, which I don't think is terribly likely, in the Heights could loose it's nomination.

The Little Mermaid-
Providing that this show can deliver everything we want and more, this is a very likely nomination.

Young Frankenstein-
If this musical turns out to be the hit we all expect, a nomination is certainly in the bag for this show.

And unless anyother musicals decide to open up between now and Tony time, which probably will happen, Xanadu looks like the only other nomination.


Best Musical WINNER:

The strange thing about this group of possible nominations is that each one of them had a little bit a past Best Musical winner in them. In the Heights has a bit of RENT, Little Mermaid has a lttle Lion King, Young Frankenstein has a little Producers, and Xanadu has a little... you know, i'm not quite sure about that one, but it looks like it will be a tough race. However, In the Heights and Xanadu don't stand a chance against Little Mermaid and Young Frankenstein, proviing that both musicals become the two major hit this season. However, when It comes down to a race between Mel Brooks and Disney, Noone knows what exactly will happen. I'd love to have Mermaid win, but young Frankenstein may be the most possible tonywin. Oh well, i guess we'll just have to wait and see. Your predictions?

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:27pm

New Musicals:
Xanadu
Young Frankenstein
The Little Mermaid
A Catered Affair
In The Heights
A Tale Of Two Cities

Nominees for Best Musical:
Xanadu
The Little Mermaid
A Catered Affair
In The Heights

Winner of Best Musical:
In The Heights

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:28pm

My prediction is that we should wait for the shows to open first. July is a little early to be making predictions.

Also, A Catered Affair is another musical that's opening this season.

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:28pm

Young Frankenstein is definitely getting a best musical nomination.

[Weez]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:29pm

I don't know if 'In The Heights' is quite big enough for a Best Musical win. At this HORRIFICALLY early stage, I would be unsurprised if 'The Little Mermaid' took it. As long as they can get it looking relatively sea-like without also being naff. It was a movie that a lot of people hold incredibly dear.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:32pm

IN THE HEIGHTS is a little bigger than AVENUE Q or SPRING AWAKENING.

I think the days of Disney taking Best Musical are over. They're just slot fillers nowadays.

I think the Nominating Committee is going to make a point not to nominate YOUNG FRANKENSTEIN for Best Musical, because the road voters know just how much $$$$$ they will make when it hits the road (a la THE PRODUCERS) and the Nominating Committee will want to prevent that.

[shesamarshmallow]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:33pm

Isn't 13 tentatively planned for next season too?

And Foster, isn't that exactly what you said about Poppins?

Updated On: 7/15/07 at 01:33 PM

[Smaxie]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:33pm

More shows on the way: Lone Star Love is rumored for the fall, and Cry-Baby for the spring. The producer of 13 had also announced that the show would open in the 2007-08 season.

[everythingtaboo]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:36pm

If the Tony committee keeps the loving of "the little transfers that could" like they did this season, In The Heights could make a huge impact.

Unless Young Frankenstein is out of this world spectacular, I'm anticipating a huge Mel Brooks backlash that could really level the playing field. Same for Little Mermaid (see Mary Poppins). Hopefully, that'll give In The Heights a real chance at making a difference.

I'm with Wanna Be A Foster on the noms (hopefully Xanadu can be remembered that far away).

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:38pm

"IN THE HEIGHTS is a little bigger than AVENUE Q or SPRING AWAKENING."

Yeah, but Avenue Q and Spring Awakening are a lot different than In the Heights, aren't they? Plus wasn't Spring Awakening find success off-Broadway - more than In the Heights? I don't think the musical's size has anything to do with whether or not it wins.

"...the road voters know just how much $$$$$ they will make when it hits the road (a la THE PRODUCERS) and the Nominating Committee will want to prevent that..."

I don't understand - why would people want to prevent the show from making money? I would bet my life on it that YF will be nominated. I just have a hunch.

Updated On: 7/15/07 at 01:38 PM

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:45pm

I don't really see how one can say The Little Mermaid (produced by DISNEY) can get a nomination when Young Frankenstein won't.

Really, this early speculation is ridiculous.

[TapTapTapioca]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:46pm

You guys are all forgetting CRY BABY. I think it is safe to say that it is almoust a lock for a Best Musical nomination.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 1:47pm

Way too early.

[Julian2]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 2:18pm

Nom's are a bitch to predict even after they've come out. Its WAY too early.

[americanboy99]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 2:57pm

There was one of these threads last year.. I think it was for Best Actress. It was, obviously, way too early.

I was speculating a nomination for Stephanie J. Block. Oh, the fun we have.

[Steve2]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 3:24pm

jagfkb, I think you have too much time on your hands.
Time will tell.
Updated On: 7/15/07 at 03:24 PM

[BroadwayEnthusiast2]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 3:29pm

It's way too early to start guessing. We don't even really have any idea about these shows (set design, costume, etc.), so it's definitely way too early.

[FutureAladdinOnB'Way]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 3:30pm

The days of Disney taking Best Musical are not over! With the right creative team, and an awesome cast The Little Mermaid WILL be the new Lion King, maybe even better; The Little Mermaid has a far better story line than The Lion King does and it has the same elements that the Lion King did: 1.) A show people don't think would work for the stage, but are proved wrong 2.) An acclaimed Opera crew e.x. director, scenic design, etc...I don't think the Little Mermaid could go wrong; Disney has learned their mistakes from Tarzan and Mary Poppis and will hopefully come out with the best Disney show yet; and don't even try to compare Tarzan with Little Mermaid because Little Mermaid is already leagues above it! The Little Mermaid, IMO, is the best work Disney has done; that being said Disney knows what people are expecting(so that they don't dissapoint..Again!) so they know that this has to be spectacular so that's it's not only a financial success, but also an artistic and critical success as well...

Nominees for Best Musical:
Xanadu
The Little Mermaid
Young Frankenstein
In The Heights

Winner of Best Musical:
The Little Mermaid
Updated On: 7/15/07 at 03:30 PM

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 3:34pm

So because THE LITTLE MERMAID is a better film than TARZAN, it will immediately be better than TARZAN and will win Best Musical (and you haven't seen it?). Okay...

[Weez]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 3:38pm

It's got a better start than 'Tarzan'.

'Tarzan' = Disney film that's quite fun but never really hit the public imagination so much. Didn't have very many songs, the characters themselves only sang once, and they (songs, not characters :P) were all by Phil Collins.

'The Little Mermaid' = Disney film that drew millions back to Disney's breast after things started going a little downhill post-'Jungle Book'. Big, colourful, theatrical, with songs by Alan Menken and Howard Ashman.

Sure, the show may yet stink. I haven't seen it yet, I can't judge. But it'll have to REALLY stink to overcome the brilliance and promise of the source material.

Updated On: 7/15/07 at 03:38 PM

[millie_dillmount]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 3:40pm

"So because THE LITTLE MERMAID is a better film than TARZAN, it will immediately be better than TARZAN and will win Best Musical..."

I think it's way to early to predict that Little Mermaid may or may not win best musical, but Little Mermaid will be a bigger success than Tarzan. Look at Lion King and Beauty and the Beast. Two VERY successful shows. You want to know part of the reason why? Everyone was familiar with the stories. Those were the Disney favorites. So is Little Mermaid. Although Tarzan was a widely-know story, I don't think it was really a favorite with audiences as much as Beauty and the Lion King are.

[vfd88]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 3:51pm

I'm really pulling for Little Mermaid here. It is perhaps Disney's best film score, and I would LOVE for it to succeed. I think it will definitely get a nomination, maybe even the win. In the Heights and Xanadu will probably get nominated too.

[FutureAladdinOnB'Way]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 3:54pm

"So because THE LITTLE MERMAID is a better film than TARZAN, it will immediately be better than TARZAN and will win Best Musical (and you haven't seen it?). Okay..." I wrote one sentence about Tarzan just saying Mermaid is already leagues above and you comment on that? The film of Tarzan wasn't a huge hit in any way; it had its little fanbase and that's about it..It also had Phil Collins, but it took away from the movie because he sang all, but one song; that already made it different from other hit Disney films..Little Mermaid was the movie that brought Disney back to its "Golden Age!" It had a great story, Howard Ashman and Alan Menken wrote an incredible score(IMO the best score that they wrote out of the three) that fit perfectly because as they described it, the characters run out of words and so the words have to come out in song; Sabastion has to convince Ariel to stay away from the land so he has to sing "Under The sea," Ariel has to sing "part of Your World" because she's longing to be with the other humans....Most other Disney movies(Tarzan included) just bust out to song randomly, but Little Mermaid has songs when it's appropriate..This is what I meant by Little Mermaid is leagues above it was a huge blockbuster from the start, unlike Tarzan; Little Mermaid has a far better start than Tarzan did..Like Weez said also, it can still sink, but it wouldn't be because of its incredible score and wonderful material...I'm pulling for Little Mermaid!



Updated On: 7/15/07 at 03:54 PM

[Testing1232]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 4:16pm

<< I'm really pulling for Little Mermaid here. It is perhaps Disney's best film score, and I would LOVE for it to succeed. I think it will definitely get a nomination, maybe even the win. In the Heights and Xanadu will probably get nominated too.
>>

I am pulling for it as well, as we are Disney FANATICS---but, in terms of score (and simply score), I would put "BATB" &
"Hunchback" ahead of it for sure, and maybe even "Tarzan" &
"Aladdin" as well.

The one thing that I fear with this show (and I do think its gonna be a huge hit), is that it is going to turn into the MGM attraction at DisneyWorld with the number of very young children being brought to the theatre.

That totally ruined my "Mary Poppins" experience for me !!!

[IAMmyownMUSICAL]

Posted: 7/15/07 at 4:17pm

don't forget about Billy Elliot