Just for fun, for anyone who is interested, let's make a game out of it. For each nominee you guess correctly, you get a point. Guess every single nominee for a particular category and earn a bonus point. On Tuesday after the nominations are announced, tally your points and post!
Here are my predictions (I haven't seen any of the plays except for EQUUS and ALL MY SONS, so my predictions for all categories pertaining to the plays are based solely on reviews and word-of-mouth. For the musicals, I have seen everything except 13, ROCK OF AGES, WHITE CHRISTMAS, and [TITLE of SHOW]).
BEST MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Next to Normal" "Nine to Five" "Shrek"
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL "Guys and Dolls" (although my gut says they won't nominate it at all) "Hair" "Pal Joey" "West Side Story"
BEST PLAY "Dividing the Estate" "God of Carnage" "reasons to be pretty" "33 Variations"
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY "Exit the King" "Mary Stuart" "The Norman Conquests" "Waiting for Godot"
BEST SPECIAL THEATRICAL EVENT "Cirque Dreams: Jungle Fantasy" "Liza's at the Palace" "You're Welcome America"
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL - LEADING ROLE David Alvarez/Trent Kowalik/Kiril Kulish - "Billy Elliot" James Barbour - "A Tale of Two Cities" Gavin Creel - "Hair" Brian D'Arcy James - "Shrek" J. Robert Spencer - "Next to Normal"
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL - LEADING ROLE Stephanie J. Block - "Nine to Five" Sutton Foster - "Shrek" Megan Hilty - "Nine to Five" Allison Janney - "Nine to Five" Alice Ripley - "Next to Normal"
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL - FEATURED ROLE Mitchell Jarvis - "Rock of Ages" Gregory Jbara - "Billy Elliot" Marc Kudish - "Nine to Five" Will Swenson - "Hair" Aaron Tveit - "Next to Normal"
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL - FEATURED ROLE Jennifer Damiano - "Next to Normal" Hayden Gwyne - "Billy Elliot" Caissie Levy - "Hair" Karen Olivo - "West Side Story" Martha Plimpton - "Pal Joey"
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Next to Normal" "Nine to Five" "[Title of Show]"
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE OF A MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Next to Normal" "Nine to Five" "Shrek"
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS "Billy Elliot" "Hair" "Next to Normal" "Rock of Ages"
BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL Stephen Daldry - "Billy Elliot" Michael Greif - "Next to Normal" Joe Mantello - "Nine to Five" Diane Paulus - "Hair"
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY Karole Armitage - "Hair" Andy Blankenbuehler - "Nine to Five" Peter Darling - "Billy Elliot" Josh Prince - "Shrek"
BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY - LEADING ROLE Raul Esparza - "Speed-the-Plow" James Gandolfini - "God of Carnage" John Lithgow - "All My Sons" Stephen Mangan - "The Norman Conquests" Geoffrey Rush - "Exit the King"
BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY - LEADING ROLE Jane Fonda - "33 Variations" Marcia Gay Harden - "God of Carnage" Janet McTeer - "Mary Stuart" Kristin Scott Thomas - "The Seagull" Dianne Wiest - "All My Sons"
BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY - FEATURED ROLE Mackenzie Crook - "The Seagull" Brian Dennehy - "Desire Under the Elms" John Goodman - "Waiting for Godot" John Benjamin Hickey - "Mary Stuart" Patrick Wilson - "All My Sons"
BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY - FEATURED ROLE Andrea Martin - "Exit the King" Angela Lansbury - "Blithe Spirit" Carey Mulligan - "The Seagull" Piper Perabo - "reasons to be pretty" Mercedes Ruehl - "The American Plan"
BEST DIRECTOR OF A PLAY Anthony Page - "Waiting for Godot" Ian Rickson - "The Seagull" Bartlett Sher - "Joe Turner's Come and Gone" Matthew Warchus - "The Norman Conquests"
BEST SCENIC DESIGN - MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Next to Normal" "Nine to Five" "Shrek"
BEST SCENIC DESIGN - PLAY "33 Variations" "Desire Under the Elms" "Dividing the Estate" "Mary Stuart"
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN - MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Next to Normal" "Rock of Ages" "Shrek"
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN - PLAY "Desire Under the Elms" "Equus" "Mary Stuart" "The Seagull"
BEST COSTUME DESIGN - PLAY "Exit the King" "Mary Stuart" "The Norman Conquests" "Waiting for Godot"
BEST SOUND DESIGN - MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Hair" "Rock of Ages" "Shrek"
BEST SOUND DESIGN - PLAY "33 Variations" "All My Sons" "Blithe Spirit" "Exit the King"
REGIONAL THEATRE AWARD (5pts bonus) Signature Theatre Company
LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD (5pts bonus) Jerry Herman
TONY HONORS FOR EXCELLENCE IN THEATRE (5pts bonus) The Actor's Fund
ISABELLE STEVENSON AWARD (5pts bonus) Natasha Richardson
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle
I like the ALL MY SONS predictions! I hope those come true.
"Winning a Tony this year is like winning Best Attendance in third grade: no one will care but the winner and their mom."
-Kad
"I have also met him in person, and I find him to be quite funny actually. Arrogant and often misinformed, but still funny."
-bjh2114 (on Michael Riedel)
"He found something that he wanted, had always wanted and always would want— not to be admired, as he had feared; not to be loved, as he had made himself believe; but to be necessary to people, to be indispensable."
-F. Scott Fitzgerald's This Side of Paradise
Since the 9 to 5 ladies have been eligible for leading actress, what are the chances of all three of them actually being nominated? Has there ever been 3 leading nominations from one show? Updated On: 5/2/09 at 09:52 PM
I really think all three 9 TO 5 ladies will get nominated. The big competition for Leading Actress in a Musical is Ripley, Janney, Block, Hilty, Foster, and Scaglione.
I think Foster will be left off the list and all of the other aforementioned women will get noms.
You don't think Foster will have either A) been forgotten and/or B) may be dismissed simply because of the rumored lack of SHREK love among the Tony elite and/or C) not nominated because of having so many nominations and one win under her belt already?
I'd really feel bad if one of the 9 TO 5-ers didn't get recognized. They're all great and Sutton is wonderful but just kinda doing her usual Sutton-shtick in SHREK.
BEST MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Next to Normal" "Nine to Five" "Shrek"
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL "Guys and Dolls" (although my gut says they won't nominate it at all) "Hair" "Pal Joey" "West Side Story"
BEST SPECIAL THEATRICAL EVENT "Cirque Dreams: Jungle Fantasy" "Liza's at the Palace" "You're Welcome America"
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL - LEADING ROLE David Alvarez/Trent Kowalik/Kiril Kulish - "Billy Elliot" James Barbour - "A Tale of Two Cities" Gavin Creel - "Hair" Brian D'Arcy James - "Shrek" J. Robert Spencer - "Next to Normal"
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL - LEADING ROLE Stephanie J. Block - "Nine to Five" Sutton Foster - "Shrek" Megan Hilty - "Nine to Five" Allison Janney - "Nine to Five" Alice Ripley - "Next to Normal"
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL - FEATURED ROLE Chris Seiber - "Shrek" Gregory Jbara - "Billy Elliot" Marc Kudish - "Nine to Five" Will Swenson - "Hair" Aaron Tveit - "Next to Normal"
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL - FEATURED ROLE Jennifer Damiano - "Next to Normal" Hayden Gwyne - "Billy Elliot" Kathy Fitzgerald - "Nine to Five" Heidi Blickenstaff- "[title of show]" Karen Olivo - "West Side Story"
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Next to Normal" "Nine to Five" "[Title of Show]"
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE OF A MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Next to Normal" "Nine to Five" "Shrek"
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS "Billy Elliot" "Hair" "Next to Normal" "Rock of Ages"
BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL Stephen Daldry - "Billy Elliot" Michael Greif - "Next to Normal" Joe Mantello - "Nine to Five" Diane Paulus - "Hair"
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY Karole Armitage - "Hair" Andy Blankenbuehler - "Nine to Five" Peter Darling - "Billy Elliot" Josh Prince - "Shrek"
BEST SCENIC DESIGN - MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Next to Normal" "Nine to Five" "Shrek"
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN - MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Next to Normal" "Nine to Five" "Shrek"
BEST COSTUME DESIGN - MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Hair" "Shrek" "Nine to Five"
BEST SOUND DESIGN - MUSICAL "Billy Elliot" "Hair" "Rock of Ages" "Shrek" Updated On: 5/2/09 at 10:18 PM
Ok here is my final choices (some categories are a little spotty just go with it)
Best Musical:?9 to 5 Next to Normal/ Shrek (toss up) Billy Elliot Rock of Ages
Best Book of a Musical ?9 to 5 [title of show] Billy Elliot Next to Normal
Best Original Score ?Next to Normal 9 to 5 Billy Elliot Shrek
Best Revival of a Play ?Equus Speed the Plow Blithe Spirit Waiting for Godot
Best Revival of a Musical? West Side Story Hair Pal Joey Guys and Dolls
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play? Daniel Radcliffe, Equus Nathan Lane, Waiting for Godot Geoffrey Rush, Exit the King Bill Irwin, Waiting for Godot Raul Esparza, Speed the Plow
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play Marcia Gay Harden, God of Carnage Janet McTeer, Mary Stuart Tovah Feldush, Irena's Vow Susan Sarandon, Exit the King ???
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical? J. Robert Spencer, Next to Normal The Three Billys, Billy Elliot Brian D'Arcy James, Shrek Gavin Creel, Hair James Barbour, A Tale of Two Cities
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical? Alice Ripley, Next to Normal Allison Janey, 9 to 5 Stephanie J. Block, 9 to 5 Megan Hilty, 9 to 5 Josephina Scaglione, West Side Story/ Sutton Foster, Shrek (toss up)
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play Patrick Wilson, All My Sons John Glover, Waiting for Godot John Goodman, Waiting for Godot ???
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play? Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit Elizabeth Moss, Speed the Plow Andrea Martin, Exit the King ??? ???
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical? Christopher Sieber, Shrek Mitchell Jarvis, Rock of Ages Marc Kudisch, 9 to 5 Aaron Tveit, Next to Normal Will Swenson, Hair
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical? Karen Olivo, West Side Story Heidi Blickenstaff, [title of show]/ Allison Case, Hair (Toss up) Kathy Fitzgerald, 9 to 5 Martha Plimpton, Pal Joey Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot
Best Direction of a Musical? 9 to 5 Shrek Hair Next to Normal
Best Choreography? 9 to 5 Billy Elliot Rock of Ages West Side Story
Best Orchestrations ?Shrek 9 to 5 Billy Elliot Rock of Ages
Best Scenic Design of a Musical? 9 to 5 Billy Elliot Shrek Hair
Best Costume Design of a Musical? Shrek Billy Elliot Rock of Ages 9 to 5
"Grease," the fourth revival of the season, is the worst show in the history of theater and represents an unparalleled assault on Western civilization and its values. - Michael Reidel
No one ever knows what will be nominated until it is nominated. For all we know, the best musical nominations could be
A Tale of Two Cities 13 Title of Show Rock of Ages
...and then 13 wins
"There's nothing good on. The media hates Christmas. The media loves vampires, though. Maybe they will show a Twilight Christmas." -Danmeg's 10 year old son.
I also have it for Orchestrations. But again, I haven't seen it. It's a mere guess since I'm told the show takes classic rock songs and puts a twist on them?
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle
Let's get some things straight here: if you're making "official predictions", you should use the proper titles of the shows.
"9 to 5" "Billy Elliot: the Musical" "next to normal" "Shrek the Musical"
Best Revival of a Musical is locked. The committee HAS to nominate those four shows.
Yup, I don't predict plays because I haven't seen as many.
BEST MUSICAL Billy Elliot: the Musical next to normal 9 to 5 Shrek the Musical
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL Guys and Dolls (they have NO CHOICE but to nominate it, dumbtards) Hair Pal Joey West Side Story
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL - LEADING ROLE David Alvarez/Trent Kowalik/Kiril Kulish as Billy Elliot in Billy Elliot: the Musical Matt Cavenaugh as Tony in West Side Story Gavin Creel as Claude in Hair Brian D'Arcy James as Shrek in Shrek the Musical J. Robert Spencer as Dan in next to normal
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL - LEADING ROLE Stephanie J. Block as Judy Bernly OR Megan Hilty as Doralee Rhodes in 9 to 5 Sutton Foster as Princess Fiona in Shrek the Musical Allison Janney as Violet Newstead in 9 to 5 Alice Ripley as Diana in next to normal Josefina Scaglione as Maria in West Side Story
BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL - FEATURED ROLE Gregory Jbara as Jackie Elliot in Billy Elliot: the Musical Marc Kudisch as Franklin Hart, Jr. in 9 to 5 Christopher Sieber as Lord Farquaad in Shrek the Musical Aaron Tveit as Gabe in next to normal Will Swenson as Berger in Hair
BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL - FEATURED ROLE Allison Case OR Caissie Levy, Hair Haydn Gwynne as Mrs. Wilkinson in Billy Elliot: the Musical Karen Olivo as Anita in West Side Story Martha Plimpton as Gladys Bumps in Pal Joey Carole Shelley as Grandma in Billy Elliot: the Musical
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL Chris D'Arienzo, Rock of Ages Lee Hall, Billy Elliot: the Musical Brian Yorkey, next to normal Patricia Resnik, 9 to 5
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE OF A MUSICAL Jeff Bowen, [title of show] Elton John, Billy Elliot: the Musical Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey, next to normal Dolly Parton, 9 to 5
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS Bruce Coughlin, 9 to 5 Tom Kitt and Michael Starobin, next to ormal Martin Koch, Billy Elliot: the Musical Danny Troob, Shrek the Musical
BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot: the Musical Michael Greif, next to normal Arthur Laurents, West Side Story Diane Paulus, Hair
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY Karole Armitage, Hair Andy Blankenbuehler, 9 to 5 Peter Darling, Billy Elliot the Musical Sergio Trujillo, Guys and Dolls
BEST SCENIC DESIGN - MUSICAL Tim Hatley, Shrek the Musical Ian MacNeil, Billy Elliot: the Musical Scott Pask, 9 to 5 Hair
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN - MUSICAL Rick Fisher, Billy Elliot: the Musical Jules Fisher and Kenneth Posner, 9 to 5 Joel Silver, next to normal Hugh Vanstone, Shrek the Musical
BEST COSTUME DESIGN - MUSICAL Nicky Gillibrand, Billy Elliot: the Musical Tim Hatley, Shrek the Musical William Ivey Long, 9 to 5 Michael McDonald, Hair
BEST SOUND DESIGN - MUSICAL Paul Arditti, Billy Elliot: the Musical Peter Hylelnski, Shrek the Musical Brian Ronan, next to normal John Shivers, 9 to 5
"No one ever knows what will be nominated until it is nominated. For all we know, the best musical nominations could be
A Tale of Two Cities 13 Title of Show Rock of Ages
...and then 13 wins"
That is indeed a possible event.
Another possible event would be alien beings that look like hairless guinea pigs wearing little sombreros landing in the middle of Central Park tomorrow and leading everyone in a riotous polka.
The facts don't favor the latter.
Or the former.
I don't get this "whats the point in predicting.. we don't really know unless it happens" buzzkill stuff.
"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."
1) Like I said, this is for fun for those who want to do it. I'm an awards show guru and I do this with the Oscars and Tonys.
2) PiraguaGuy2, there's no need to be nasty. I'm a lot of things but I am not a "dumbtard." Why is the committee obligated to nominate all four shows for Best Revival of a Musical? I remember one year where a show got the shaft, if memory serves me correctly...(either '05 or '06)...
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle
I'm with yankeefan about ROCK OF AGES. I think people are letting their personal thoughts on the show get in the way of the fact that it got a respectable crop of reviews. Better than 9 TO 5, in fact. And SHREK.
I also am having a lot of trouble putting together a list of predictions...this was a really strong year for plays, especially. I do have the feeling that we will get quite a few surprise nominations and omissions on Tuesday.
I really want 9 to 5 to sweep the awards but now we all know it won't because of the reviews.
I'm a professional. Whenever something goes wrong on stage, I know how to handle it so no one ever remembers. I flash my %#$&.
"Jayne just sat there while Gina flailed around the stage like an idiot."
"He found something that he wanted, had always wanted and always would want— not to be admired, as he had feared; not to be loved, as he had made himself believe; but to be necessary to people, to be indispensable."
-F. Scott Fitzgerald's This Side of Paradise