There was considerable overlap as far as OCC nominations and Tony Wins last year in that if a show/actor hadn’t at least been nominated by OCC the chances of a Tony win were slim to none.
It's a bit silly seeing how the nominations/wins align between two awards bodies that are run by entirely different groups of people and are governed by different sets of rules. Of course there will be overlap- it's a relatively small pool of potential nominees/winners and there will always be very obvious frontrunners.
Everyone agrees that they are different nominating/voting bodies, but can we agree that if a show/actor doesn’t get at least a nomination from OCC the chance of a win at the Tonys is significantly less. Looking at last year, that seems to be the case. Same thing with Golden Globes/Oscars. Can we at least agree on that?
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/23/17
Miles2Go2 said: "Everyone agrees that they are different nominating/voting bodies, but can we agree that if a show/actor doesn’t get at least a nomination from OCC the chance of a win at the Tonys is significantly less. Looking at last year, that seems to be the case. Same thing with Golden Globes/Oscars. Can we at least agree on that?"
Nope. Sorry.
How often would say that a show/actor that did not get an OCC nomination in a major category won a Tony award in the comparatively similar Tony major category? 50% of the time? 10% 30% 80% 90%?
Personally thats a lot of love towards Tootsie that I just dont see. Ive seen every musical thus year and it just felt bland and cheap. Costumes choreography and a second supporting actor are a stretch.
HeyMrMusic said: "I seriously hope Head Over Heels gets some Tony love. It was one of the highlights of this season in my opinion. So unapologetic, so vibrant, so joyous. Glad to see it recognized here with some deserved nominations."
Same here!! Bonnie Milligan was amazing, and the whole show overall was just so creative (I wish that future jukebox musicals would try this route of using the catalogue to tell a new story, not just a bio-musical)
You could compare the OCCs and DDs to the Golden Globes, in that both are nominated by fringe groups of critics, and neither are particularly good indicators of the major award. The nominating body for the Oscars and Tonys have no critics –– it's entirely industry people. (The Tony nominators are kind of an odd assortment of 48 individuals.)
The Golden Globes have impact because the awards occur before Oscar nominations are announced, and the ceremony is attended/watched by a lot of industry people. Seeing a groundswell of support for a certain film or a great speech by a certain actor could push undecided voters.
If all the categories were separated by Bway/Off-Bway, it might be a better indicator, though there would still be some major differences.
To be clear, I’m not saying a OCC win equates to a Tony win. I’m saying even if a non-OCC nominated performance garners a Tony nomination (which is bound to happen, especially in OCC categories that include Broadway and off-Broadway), history shows that most of the time it won’t lead to a Tony win. The only exception I found last year was Ari’el Stachel who wasn’t nominated by OCC in the year he was eligible but won the Tony.
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