2025 Outer Critics Circle Awards — Page 3

AC126748 said: "The OCC is sort of like the Golden Globes of the theater awards season. I wouldn’t use their results to extrapolate Tony trends in any serious way."

Ok, I'll bite. While every voting body is obviously different, the Outer Critics Circle HAS actually been a fairly accurate predictor of the winner of Best Leading Actress in a Musical at the Tony Awards in recent history.

2010: Catherine Zeta-Jones tied with Montego Glover for the OCC, won the Tony
2011: Sutton Foster won the OCC and the Tony
2012: Audra McDonald won the OCC and the Tony
2013: Patina Miller won the OCC and the Tony
2014: Audra won the OCC (Lady Day ruled a Musical for OCC/won Tony for Play), Jessie Mueller won the Tony
2015: Kristin Chenoweth won the OCC, Kelli O'Hara won the Tony
2016: Cynthia Erivo won the OCC and the Tony
2017: Bette Midler won the OCC and the Tony
2018: Lauren Ambrose won the OCC (wild), Katrina Lenk won the Tony (was eligible for OCC in 2017)
2019: Stephanie J. Block won the OCC and the Tony
2020: no traditional OCC ceremony, Adrienne Warren won the Tony (she was an OCC honoree)
2021: no ceremonies
2022: Victoria Clark won the OCC (off-Broadway), Joaquina Kalukango won the Tony

2023 saw the shift at the OCC from gendered categories to "Leading Performer in a Musical". J. Harrison Ghee won the OCC that year for Some Like It Hot, while Victoria Clark won the Tony following Kimberly Akimbo's transfer to Broadway. In 2024, Kelli O'Hara won the OCC (in a category with 3 men and 2 women), while Maleah Joi Moon won the Tony (she wasn't nominated for the OCC).

So, in the last 15 years when the same "group" of nominees has been eligible in the same year for the OCC and the Tony, only on TWO occasions has the award gone to different people (2015 and 2024). And in one of those two cases (2024), the Tony winner wasn't even nominated in the non-gendered OCC category. This year, we had Audra, Nicole, and Jasmine ALL nominated in the non-gendered category at the OCC. That's not so say that Jasmine is automatically the favorite to win the Tony, but it's foolish to say that the OCC hasn't been a good predictor of the Tony in the past in this specific category.

Updated On: 5/12/25 at 02:30 PM

AC126748 said: "Bernadette losing for Gypsy wasn't an upset. Marissa Jaret Winouker was heavily favored to win as part of the Hairspray sweep."

Correct. Bernadette wasn't even nominated for an Outer Critics Circle Award that year lol.

MadsonMelo said: "Let's remember that the OCC loved ''Boop'' with noms for Musical, Score and Book, something that the Tonys didn't.

Also, there is no overlap for voting.

I know there's a very big support for her but this doesn't change much from the fact that still is Audra x Nicole.

Kelli won this category last year when Maleah was not even nominated."

I actually find this to be a pretty poor analysis of the situation. The OCC had to nominate SOMETHING in those categories, and the shows that beat out Boop! in those categories for Tony nominations were Dead Outlaw and Buena Vista Social Club, who weren't eligible for this year's OCCs. Also, it's not like the OCC "loved Boop" as you say. They got 8 nominations, which is solid. But Death Becomes Her, by comparison, led with 12 nominations and won zero.

Even if there’s little overlap, the way precursor awards work is that it may subliminally influences how people vote moving forward. We saw that happen this film awards season with Demi Moore after the Golden Globes (until voters made a hard pivot at BAFTA). So while it may not be completely accurate, it can make voters more comfortable casting a vote in that direction.

I’m thrilled for Jasmine and Francis, two highlights of this theatre season, for sure.

bjh2114 said: "MadsonMelo said: "Let's remember that the OCC loved ''Boop'' with noms for Musical, Score and Book, something that the Tonys didn't.

Also, there is no overlap for voting.

I know there's a very big support for her but this doesn't change much from the fact that still is Audra x Nicole.

Kelli won this category last year when Maleah was not even nominated."

I actually find this to be a pretty poor analysis of the situation. The OCC had to nominate SOMETHING in those categories, and the shows that beat out Boop! in those categories for Tony nominations were Dead Outlaw and Buena Vista Social Club, who weren't eligible for this year's OCCs. Also, it's not like the OCC "loved Boop" as you say. They got 8 nominations, which is solid. But Death Becomes Her, by comparison, led with 12 nominations and won zero."

They nominated BOOP for MUSICAL, SCORE, BOOK and even DIRECTING - it wasn't solid, it was the third most nominated show overall, they clearly loved the show. As I said, they prefered Jerry Mitchell over Jamie Lloyd, something the Tonys certainly didn't.

Also, they almost won exactly the same amount of awards as ''Maybe Happy Ending'', the second most wins for any show.

Had ''Boop'' got Best Musical Nomination and even Score, I would say Jasmine could be a threat but to think the OCC reflects the Tonys is almost bizarre.

Also, the only time a LEAD ACTRESS won this century without a Best Musical/Revival nom for the show was Stephanie J. Block and not only she was almost a two decade veteran, she had no real competition.

Jasmine may even win Drama Desk too, that won't change the fact that her Tony win still would be a huge upset that I simply can't believe is happening.

Updated On: 5/12/25 at 04:25 PM

Out of curiosity, does anyone know how OCC voting works? Is it ranked? Or is it simple plurality?

HeyMrMusic said: "Even if there’s little overlap, the way precursor awards work is that it maysubliminally influences how people vote moving forward. We saw that happen this film awards season with Demi Moore after the Golden Globes (untilvoters made a hard pivot at BAFTA). So while it may not be completely accurate, it can make voters more comfortable casting a vote in that direction.

I’m thrilled for Jasmine and Francis, two highlights of this theatre season, for sure"

Precursors for the Oscars are important for 2 different reasons. Reason 1 is that the various guilds/unions have their own awards, and those people are also Academy voters, so you can get a read on how various voting blocs are trending. Reason 2 is political- Oscar hopefuls need to show up, give good speeches, shmooze, and put in a lot of face time with industry people. The Hollywood Foreign Press doesn't represent Academy voters in any way, but the Globes are a major industry social event and even the Academy voters not present will watch them and so a good showing reflects well on a nominee.

The Tonys don't really have comparable awards in either category- I don't think many people really care about the OCCs or similar awards as they're not broadcast and are generally rather small affairs, so it's hard to build a narrative from them. That is coupled with the fact that every award has their own rules and those rules will inevitably exclude some competitors (particularly in the case of off-Broadway transfers from a previous season). If a season has really obvious winners, then awards will fall their way. But in a rather diffuse year like this one, it remains to be seen how indicative these awards will be. My bet is not very. 

Kad said: "Precursors for the Oscars are important for 2 different reasons. Reason 1 is that the various guilds/unions have their own awards, and those people are also Academy voters, so you can get a read on how various voting blocs are trending. Reason 2 is political- Oscar hopefuls need to show up, give good speeches, shmooze, and put in a lot of face time with industry people. The Hollywood Foreign Press doesn't represent Academy voters in any way, but the Globes are a major industry social event and even the Academy voters not present will watch them and so a good showing reflects well on a nominee.

The Tonys don't really have comparable awards in either category- I don't think many people really care about the OCCs or similar awards as they're not broadcast and are generally rather small affairs, so it's hard to build a narrative from them. That is coupled with the fact that every award has their own rules and those rules will inevitably exclude some competitors (particularly in the case of off-Broadway transfers from a previous season). If a season has really obvious winners, then awards will fall their way. But in a rather diffuse year like this one, it remains to be seen how indicative these awards will be. My bet is not very."

Right, I was trying to explain your reason 2. I understand there’s not much in common with the different awards bodies for theatre, but it does plant the idea in a future voter’s head when they see something/someone win, whether they go with it and start a trend or not.