Posted: 11/27/24 at 9:51am
How do we think the big awards are shaping up?
Best Musical
So many unknowns still! I think Death Becomes Her and Maybe Happy Ending are the only current frontrunners, with MHE's chances taking a major hit if it closes early. Buena Vista Social Club got great reviews at ATC; BOOP! had solid word of mouth out of Chicago; and Operation Mincemeat was a hit in London. That's my current guess at the nominees, with possible movement from Smash, Real Women Have Curves, Just In Time, and Redwood if any of them catch fire. Even with its positive reviews, I don't see Swept Away gaining traction. A Wonderful World and Tammy Faye are non-starters. I guess Old Friends could sneak in, but I don't see a revue breaking through.
Best Musical Revival
This seems like a fairly straightforward category, with Gypsy and Sunset Blvd. leading the pack. I think as long as Floyd Collins and The Last Five Years don't crash and burn, they'll take the other two slots. Pirates! is a big question mark, especially given the revisions. Elf and Once Upon a Mattress will have long closed, so I don't see them being contenders, even with their positive notices. If Ragtime comes in, that still leaves only eight eligible productions which I believe still results in only four nominations. I'd expect it to grab the third slot, leaving FC and TLFY to fight for the fourth.
Best Play
In some ways, this is a no-brainer, in that Oh, Mary! seems to be the clear front-runner, especially if it continues to extend into awards season. Beyond that, I have no idea how this could shake out. The only plays currently slated to be running on Tony Day are Good Night, and Good Luck, John Proctor is the Villain, Purpose, Stranger Things, and The Picture of Dorian Gray. Any of these could fill out the category. English, Eureka Day, and The Hills of California could all be in the conversation, too. I suppose voters could feel magnanimous towards All In, Cult of Love, or Job if some of the upcoming shows tank. I can't see a world in which Left on Tenth, McNeal, or The Roommate are anywhere in the conversation.
Best Play Revival
This feels like it will be a three-way race between Yellow Face, Othello, and Glengarry Glen Ross (if it actually happens). I suppose Our Town or Romeo + Juliet could sneak in there if either Othello or GGR fizzles. Home will be a non-player.
For the acting awards, I'm not going to prognosticate, but instead will list who I believe will be eligible/in the conversation in each category. No idea how the casts of BVSC, Old Friends, Operation Mincemeat, RWHC, or a number of the plays will be categorized, so I'll leave them out for now.
Best Actor in a Musical
Erich Bergen, BOOP! (will this be lead?)
Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending
Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.
John Gallagher, Jr., Swept Away
Jonathan Groff, Just In Time
Grey Henson, Elf
David Hyde Pierce, Pirates!
James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World
Nick Jonas, The Last Five Years
Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins
Ramin Karimloo, Pirates!
Michael Urie, Once Upon a Mattress (lead?)
Best Actress in a Musical
Caroline Bowman, Smash
Katie Brayben, Tammy Faye
Sutton Foster, Once Upon a Mattress
Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her
Robyn Hurder, Smash
Audra McDonald, Gypsy
Idina Menzel, Redwood
Jinkx Monsoon, Pirates!
Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop!
Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd
Helen J. Shen, Maybe Happy Ending
Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her (unless they put her in featured)
Adrienne Warren, The Last Five Years
Lead Actor, Play
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Kit Connor, Romeo + Juliet
Robert Downey, Jr., McNeal
Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!
Peter Friedman, Job
Peter Gallagher, Left on Tenth
Tory Kittles, Home
Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face
Jim Parsons, Our Town
Denzel Washington, Othello
Lead from Purpose?
Someone from Stranger Things?
One of the Glengarry guys? No one has ever been nominated in lead for this play...only in featured
Lead Actress, Play
Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California
Mia Farrow, The Roommate
Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day
Sydney Lemmon, Job
Julianna Margulies, Left on Tenth
Marjan Neshat, English
Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Mare Winningham, Cult of Love (if there's a lead)
Rachel Zegler, Romeo + Juliet
Lead from Purpose?
What do y'all think?
