2025 Tony Discussion

[kurtal]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 9:51am

How do we think the big awards are shaping up?  

Best Musical

So many unknowns still!  I think Death Becomes Her and Maybe Happy Ending are the only current frontrunners, with MHE's chances taking a major hit if it closes early.  Buena Vista Social Club got great reviews at ATC; BOOP! had solid word of mouth out of Chicago; and Operation Mincemeat was a hit in London.  That's my current guess at the nominees, with possible movement from Smash, Real Women Have Curves, Just In Time, and Redwood if any of them catch fire.  Even with its positive reviews, I don't see Swept Away gaining traction.  A Wonderful World and Tammy Faye are non-starters.  I guess Old Friends could sneak in, but I don't see a revue breaking through.

Best Musical Revival

This seems like a fairly straightforward category, with Gypsy and Sunset Blvd. leading the pack.  I think as long as Floyd Collins and The Last Five Years don't crash and burn, they'll take the other two slots.  Pirates! is a big question mark, especially given the revisions.  Elf and Once Upon a Mattress will have long closed, so I don't see them being contenders, even with their positive notices.  If Ragtime comes in, that still leaves only eight eligible productions which I believe still results in only four nominations.  I'd expect it to grab the third slot, leaving FC and TLFY to fight for the fourth.

Best Play

In some ways, this is a no-brainer, in that Oh, Mary! seems to be the clear front-runner, especially if it continues to extend into awards season.  Beyond that, I have no idea how this could shake out.  The only plays currently slated to be running on Tony Day are Good Night, and Good Luck, John Proctor is the Villain, Purpose, Stranger Things, and The Picture of Dorian Gray.  Any of these could fill out the category.  English, Eureka Day, and The Hills of California could all be in the conversation, too.  I suppose voters could feel magnanimous towards All In, Cult of Love, or Job if some of the upcoming shows tank.   I can't see a world in which Left on Tenth, McNeal, or The Roommate are anywhere in the conversation.

Best Play Revival

This feels like it will be a three-way race between Yellow Face, Othello, and Glengarry Glen Ross (if it actually happens).  I suppose Our Town or Romeo + Juliet could sneak in there if either Othello or GGR fizzles.  Home will be a non-player.

For the acting awards, I'm not going to prognosticate, but instead will list who I believe will be eligible/in the conversation in each category.  No idea how the casts of BVSC, Old Friends, Operation Mincemeat, RWHC, or a number of the plays will be categorized, so I'll leave them out for now.  

Best Actor in a Musical

Erich Bergen, BOOP! (will this be lead?)
Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending
Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.
John Gallagher, Jr., Swept Away
Jonathan Groff, Just In Time
Grey Henson, Elf
David Hyde Pierce, Pirates!
James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World
Nick Jonas, The Last Five Years
Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins
Ramin Karimloo, Pirates!
Michael Urie, Once Upon a Mattress (lead?)

Best Actress in a Musical

Caroline Bowman, Smash
Katie Brayben, Tammy Faye
Sutton Foster, Once Upon a Mattress
Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her
Robyn Hurder, Smash
Audra McDonald, Gypsy
Idina Menzel, Redwood
Jinkx Monsoon, Pirates! 
Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop!
Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd
Helen J. Shen, Maybe Happy Ending
Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her (unless they put her in featured)
Adrienne Warren, The Last Five Years

Lead Actor, Play

George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Kit Connor, Romeo + Juliet
Robert Downey, Jr., McNeal
Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!
Peter Friedman, Job
Peter Gallagher, Left on Tenth
Tory Kittles, Home
Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face
Jim Parsons, Our Town
Denzel Washington, Othello
Lead from Purpose?
Someone from Stranger Things?
One of the Glengarry guys?  No one has ever been nominated in lead for this play...only in featured

Lead Actress, Play

Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California
Mia Farrow, The Roommate
Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day
Sydney Lemmon, Job
Julianna Margulies, Left on Tenth
Marjan Neshat, English
Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Mare Winningham, Cult of Love (if there's a lead)
Rachel Zegler, Romeo + Juliet
Lead from Purpose?

What do y'all think?

[theatergoer3]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 10:13am

Louis McCartney will probably go lead for Stranger Things.

They’ll either all go featured or put Henderson or Quinto as leads for Cult.

Updated On: 11/27/24 at 10:13 AM

[yyys]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 10:14am

my prediction is that Operation Mincemeat will be a big hit and will take the Best New Musical.

Also, let's not overlook David Cumming and Natasha Hodgson for Actor and Actress and Jak Malone for Supporting Actor.

Updated On: 11/27/24 at 10:14 AM

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 10:19am

Here's my predictions for the major categories - obviously subject to change

Best Musical
BOOP!
Death Becomes Her
Operation Mincemeat
Real Women Have Curves (or Dead Outlaw if it comes in)
Smash

Best Musical Revival - I'm assuming Next to Normal does NOT come in. If it does, it would definitely be on this list
Floyd Collins 
Gypsy
Ragtime (if it comes in, if not... The Last Five Years)
Sunset Boulevard

Best Play - this category is SUPER competitive!
Good Night and Good Luck
The Hills of California
The Motive and the Cue (if it comes in, if not... Stranger Things or John Proctor)
Oh Mary!
The Picture of Dorian Gray

Best Play Revival
Glengarry Glen Ross
Othello
Our Town (if there's 4 nominees. If only 3, take this one out)
Yellow Face

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 10:29am

If RAGTIME chickens out, it will be SUNSET BOULEVARD owning the night. Musical revival, lead actor, lead actress, direction of a musical, lighting design, and sound design. 

Either way, musical and score will be a battle between OPERATION MINCEMEAT and DEAD OUTLAW.

OLD FRIENDS will overachieve in the nominations department, and either Bernadette or Lea will get one in a packed actress field. 

Cole Escola, their OH, MARY!, Sarah Snook, and her DORIAN GRAY are all locks. 

 

 

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 1:00pm

Just spitballing some way-too-early predictions:

Best Musical

• Boop! the Musical
• Buena Vista Social Club
• Maybe Happy Ending
• Operation Mincemeat
• Redwood
  • HM: Death Becomes Her, Swept Away

Best Play

• English
• The Hills of California
• John Proctor is the Villain
• Oh, Mary!
• Stranger Things: the First Shadow
  • ​​​​​​​HM: Good Night and Good Luck, Eureka Day, Purpose

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Best Musical Revival

• Cats
• Floyd Collins
• Gypsy
• The Next Five Years
• Sunset BLVD
  • ​​​​​​​HM: Pirates! the Penzance Musical, Elf, Once Upon a Mattress​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Best Play Revival

• Glengarry Glen Ross
• Othello
• Our Town
• Romeo & Juliet
• Yellow Face

​​​​​​​Best Actress in a Musical:

• Natasha Hodgson - Operation Mincemeat
• Audra McDonald - Gypsy
• Idina Menzel - Redwood
• Jasmine Amy Rogers - Boop! the Musical
• Nicole Scherzinger - Sunset BLVD

​​​​​​​Best Actor in a Musical

• Darren Criss - Maybe Happy Ending
• David Cumming - Operation Mincemeat
• Tom Francis - Sunset BLVD
• David Hyde Pierce - Pirates! the Penzance Musical
• Jeremy Jordan - Floyd Collins

​​​​​​​Best Actress in a Play

• Laura Donnelly - The Hills of California
• Jessica Hecht - Eureka Day
• Sadie Sink - John Proctor is the Villain
• Sarah Snook - The Picture of Dorian Grey
• Rachel Zegler - Romeo and Juliet

​​​​​​​Best Actor in a Play

• George Clooney - Good Night and Good Luck
• Daniel Dae Kim - Yellow Face
• Cole Escola - Oh, Mary
• Jake Gyllenhaal - Othello
• Denzell Washington - Othello

​​​​​​​Best Featured Actress in a Musical

• Jinkx Monsoon - Pirates! the Penzance Musical
• Zoe Roberts - Operation Mincemeat
• Faith Prince - Boop! the Musical
• Joy Woods -  Gypsy
• Grace Hodgett Young - Sunset BLVD

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

• Danny Burstein - Gypsy
• John Gallagher Jr. - Swept Away
• Jak Malone - Operation Mincemeat
• David Thaxton - Sunset BLVD
• Cats actor TBD

Best Featured Actress in a Play

• Marjan Neshat - English
• Molly Osborne - Othello
• Stranger Things actress tbd
• (can't think of any more atm)

Best Featured Actor in a Play

• Kieran Culkin - Glengarry Glen Ross
• Francis Jue - Yellow Face
• Conrad Ricamora - Oh, Mary
• Hadi Tabbal - English
• Stranger Things actor TBD

Updated On: 11/27/24 at 01:00 PM

[Kad]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 1:03pm

Jinkx Monsoon is a trans woman, she would be eligible in Best Featured Actress. 

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 1:06pm

Kad said: "Jinkx Monsoon is a trans woman, she would be eligible in Best Featured Actress."

Thank you! I wasn't aware. Will correct.

[witchoftheeast2]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 1:22pm

KevinKlawitter said: "Just spitballing some way-too-early predictions:

Best Musical

• Boop! the Musical
• Buena Vista Social Club
• Maybe Happy Ending
• Operation Mincemeat
• Redwood
  • HM: Death Becomes Her, Swept Away

Best Play

• English
• The Hills of California
• John Proctor is the Villain
• Oh, Mary!
• Stranger Things: the First Shadow
  • HM: Good Night and Good Luck, Eureka Day, Purpose

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Best Musical Revival

• Cats
• Floyd Collins
• Gypsy
• The Next Five Years
• Sunset BLVD
  • ​​​​​​​HM:Pirates! the Penzance Musical, Elf, Once Upon a Mattress​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Best Play Revival

• Glengarry Glen Ross
• Othello
• Our Town
• Romeo & Juliet
• Yellow Face

​​​​​​​Best Actress in a Musical:

• Natasha Hodgson -Operation Mincemeat
• Audra McDonald -Gypsy
• Idina Menzel - Redwood
• Jasmine Amy Rogers - Boop! the Musical
• Nicole Scherzinger - Sunset BLVD

​​​​​​​Best Actor in a Musical

• Darren Criss -Maybe Happy Ending
• David Cumming -Operation Mincemeat
• Tom Francis -Sunset BLVD
• David Hyde Pierce - Pirates! the Penzance Musical
• Jeremy Jordan - Floyd Collins

​​​​​​​Best Actress in a Play

• Laura Donnelly - The Hills of California
• Jessica Hecht - Eureka Day
• Sadie Sink - John Proctor is the Villain
• Sarah Snook - The Pictureof Dorian Grey
• Rachel Zegler - Romeo and Juliet

​​​​​​​Best Actor in a Play

• George Clooney - Good Night and Good Luck
• Daniel Dae Kim - Yellow Face
• Cole Escola -Oh, Mary
• Jake Gyllenhaal - Othello
• Denzell Washington - Othello

​​​​​​​Best Featured Actress in a Musical

• Jinkx Monsoon - Pirates! the Penzance Musical
• Zoe Roberts - Operation Mincemeat
• Faith Prince - Boop! the Musical
• Joy Woods - Gypsy
• Grace Hodgett Young - Sunset BLVD

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

• Danny Burstein - Gypsy
• John Gallagher Jr.- Swept Away
• Jak Malone - Operation Mincemeat
• David Thaxton - Sunset BLVD
• Cats actor TBD

Best Featured Actress in a Play

• Marjan Neshat - English
• Molly Osborne - Othello
• Stranger Things actress tbd
• (can't think of any more atm)

Best Featured Actor in a Play

• Kieran Culkin - Glengarry Glen Ross
• Francis Jue - Yellow Face
• Conrad Ricamora - Oh, Mary
• Hadi Tabbal - English
• Stranger Thingsactor TBD

"

Why is CATS here? It was off-Broadway and as far as I know doesn't plan on a transfer.

[Listener]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 1:40pm

I realize she'll probably be nominated, but I sincerely hope Nicole S does not win for what she's doing in Sunset.

I hope I'm not alone in that.

[OhHiii]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 1:47pm

I think Helen Shen is gonna ride a wave of good will in nominations for MHE despite likely not being open. It's rather beloved in the industry, so expect it to land a meaningful amount of noms. 

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 2:15pm

Where would a non binary performer be placed?

”Actress” is such an outdated word, anyway.

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 2:19pm

Jay Lerner-Z said: "Where would a non binary performer be placed?
 

Wherever they want to be. 

[yyys]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 2:21pm

Cole Escola is competing in the Best Actor category. It depends on which category they want.

 

Jay Lerner-Z said: "Where would a non binary performer be placed?

”Actress” is such an outdated word, anyway."

 

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 2:25pm

Maybe… except that would require them to be the opposite of non-binary? Bound by gender.

[Kad]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 2:42pm

Jay Lerner-Z said: "Maybe… except that would require them to be theoppositeof non-binary? Bound by gender."

The current rules allow for nonbinary performers to choose their category for consideration (nonbinary winners J. Harrison Ghee and Alex Newell both opted for the actor categories).

Updated On: 11/27/24 at 02:42 PM

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 2:47pm

Thanks. It seems like a good thing at surface level, but it does also seem to go against the grain of what NB actually means.

Updated On: 11/27/24 at 02:47 PM

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 2:56pm

Not really. "Actor" can be a gender-nonspecific term.(It's why the SAG awards specify Male Actor and Female Actor in their categories.) So unless one identifies as a woman/actress, an Actor category would be the correct one for anyone else.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 3:00pm

I guess, but that would have to mean that cis women also be eligible.

[ElizaSchuyler]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 3:02pm

KevinKlawitter said: "Just spitballing some way-too-early predictions:

Best Actress in a Play

• Laura Donnelly - The Hills of California
• Jessica Hecht - Eureka Day
• Sadie Sink - John Proctor is the Villain
• Sarah Snook - The Pictureof Dorian Grey
• Rachel Zegler - Romeo and Juliet

​​​​​​​Best Actor in a Play

• George Clooney - Good Night and Good Luck
• Daniel Dae Kim - Yellow Face
• Cole Escola -Oh, Mary
• Jake Gyllenhaal - Othello
• Denzell Washington - Othello

"

I can't imagine a scenario where Rachel Zegler gets in but Kit Connor doesn't for Romeo + Juliet. He mops the floor with her.

[Bwaygurl2]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 3:06pm

Jay Lerner-Z said: "I guess, but that would have to mean that cis women also be eligible."

If there was an easy solution to this the Tony committee would have come up with it by now. 

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 3:09pm

Easy solution: stop differentiating by gender. Halve the categories. Ditch the word “actress” for good.

[Bwaygurl2]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 3:21pm

People are concerned if we just have four genderless categories that we will end up with years where all four winners are men, or 3/4 of them. 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 11/27/24 at 4:14pm

OhHiii said: "I think Helen Shen is gonna ride a wave of good will in nominations for MHE despite likely not being open. It's rather beloved in the industry, so expect it to land a meaningful amount of noms."

Maybe but people thought that about Here Lies Love and/or Days of Wine and Roses last year and that didn't translate to many noms for either