So many unknowns still! I think Death Becomes Her and Maybe Happy Ending are the only current frontrunners, with MHE's chances taking a major hit if it closes early. Buena Vista Social Club got great reviews at ATC; BOOP! had solid word of mouth out of Chicago; and Operation Mincemeat was a hit in London. That's my current guess at the nominees, with possible movement from Smash, Real Women Have Curves, Just In Time, and Redwood if any of them catch fire. Even with its positive reviews, I don't see Swept Away gaining traction. A Wonderful World and Tammy Faye are non-starters. I guess Old Friends could sneak in, but I don't see a revue breaking through.
Best Musical Revival
This seems like a fairly straightforward category, with Gypsy and Sunset Blvd. leading the pack. I think as long as Floyd Collins and The Last Five Years don't crash and burn, they'll take the other two slots. Pirates! is a big question mark, especially given the revisions. Elf and Once Upon a Mattress will have long closed, so I don't see them being contenders, even with their positive notices. If Ragtime comes in, that still leaves only eight eligible productions which I believe still results in only four nominations. I'd expect it to grab the third slot, leaving FC and TLFY to fight for the fourth.
Best Play
In some ways, this is a no-brainer, in that Oh, Mary! seems to be the clear front-runner, especially if it continues to extend into awards season. Beyond that, I have no idea how this could shake out. The only plays currently slated to be running on Tony Day are Good Night, and Good Luck, John Proctor is the Villain, Purpose, Stranger Things, and The Picture of Dorian Gray. Any of these could fill out the category. English, Eureka Day, and The Hills of California could all be in the conversation, too. I suppose voters could feel magnanimous towards All In, Cult of Love, or Job if some of the upcoming shows tank. I can't see a world in which Left on Tenth, McNeal, or The Roommate are anywhere in the conversation.
Best Play Revival
This feels like it will be a three-way race between Yellow Face, Othello, and Glengarry Glen Ross (if it actually happens). I suppose Our Town or Romeo + Juliet could sneak in there if either Othello or GGR fizzles. Home will be a non-player.
For the acting awards, I'm not going to prognosticate, but instead will list who I believe will be eligible/in the conversation in each category. No idea how the casts of BVSC, Old Friends, Operation Mincemeat, RWHC, or a number of the plays will be categorized, so I'll leave them out for now.
Best Actor in a Musical
Erich Bergen, BOOP! (will this be lead?) Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd. John Gallagher, Jr., Swept Away Jonathan Groff, Just In Time Grey Henson, Elf David Hyde Pierce, Pirates! James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World Nick Jonas, The Last Five Years Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins Ramin Karimloo, Pirates! Michael Urie, Once Upon a Mattress (lead?)
Best Actress in a Musical
Caroline Bowman, Smash Katie Brayben, Tammy Faye Sutton Foster, Once Upon a Mattress Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her Robyn Hurder, Smash Audra McDonald, Gypsy Idina Menzel, Redwood Jinkx Monsoon, Pirates! Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd Helen J. Shen, Maybe Happy Ending Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her (unless they put her in featured) Adrienne Warren, The Last Five Years
Lead Actor, Play
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck Kit Connor, Romeo + Juliet Robert Downey, Jr., McNeal Cole Escola, Oh, Mary! Peter Friedman, Job Peter Gallagher, Left on Tenth Tory Kittles, Home Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face Jim Parsons, Our Town Denzel Washington, Othello Lead from Purpose? Someone from Stranger Things? One of the Glengarry guys? No one has ever been nominated in lead for this play...only in featured
Lead Actress, Play
Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California Mia Farrow, The Roommate Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day Sydney Lemmon, Job Julianna Margulies, Left on Tenth Marjan Neshat, English Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray Mare Winningham, Cult of Love (if there's a lead) Rachel Zegler, Romeo + Juliet Lead from Purpose?
Here's my predictions for the major categories - obviously subject to change
Best Musical BOOP! Death Becomes Her Operation Mincemeat Real Women Have Curves (or Dead Outlaw if it comes in) Smash
Best Musical Revival - I'm assuming Next to Normal does NOT come in. If it does, it would definitely be on this list Floyd Collins Gypsy Ragtime (if it comes in, if not... The Last Five Years) Sunset Boulevard
Best Play - this category is SUPER competitive! Good Night and Good Luck The Hills of California The Motive and the Cue (if it comes in, if not... Stranger Things or John Proctor) Oh Mary! The Picture of Dorian Gray
Best Play Revival Glengarry Glen Ross Othello Our Town (if there's 4 nominees. If only 3, take this one out) Yellow Face
If RAGTIME chickens out, it will be SUNSET BOULEVARD owning the night. Musical revival, lead actor, lead actress, direction of a musical, lighting design, and sound design.
Either way, musical and score will be a battle between OPERATION MINCEMEAT and DEAD OUTLAW.
OLD FRIENDS will overachieve in the nominations department, and either Bernadette or Lea will get one in a packed actress field.
Cole Escola, their OH, MARY!, Sarah Snook, and her DORIAN GRAY are all locks.
I think Helen Shen is gonna ride a wave of good will in nominations for MHE despite likely not being open. It's rather beloved in the industry, so expect it to land a meaningful amount of noms.
Jay Lerner-Z said: "Maybe… except that would require them to be theoppositeof non-binary? Bound by gender."
The current rules allow for nonbinary performers to choose their category for consideration (nonbinary winners J. Harrison Ghee and Alex Newell both opted for the actor categories).
"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."
Not really. "Actor" can be a gender-nonspecific term.(It's why the SAG awards specify Male Actor and Female Actor in their categories.) So unless one identifies as a woman/actress, an Actor category would be the correct one for anyone else.
OhHiii said: "I think Helen Shen is gonna ride a wave of good will in nominations for MHE despite likely not being open. It's rather beloved in the industry, so expect it to land a meaningful amount of noms."
Maybe but people thought that about Here Lies Love and/or Days of Wine and Roses last year and that didn't translate to many noms for either