My opinion, for what it's worth, is that this year's four spots will be AAIP, Neverland, Fun Home, Rotten-- with a chance that The Visit could sneak in for a 5th spot. Now, while, personally, I think Fun Home is the best, I think politics prohibit it from being an actual winning contender. I also think The Visit (again, just me personally) doesn't actually deserve a nomination but may get one anyway, but also has no chance of winning. Now, among AAIP, Rotten, and Neverland, I actually think there are exactly equal odds each will win-- rotten is a comedy and has Jordan Roth's machine behind it. Obviously Neverland has huge piles of money, and major ego, along with a recognizable title that could appeal to touring houses. AAIP has some big industry players involved, and momentum seems to be on its side. So I think this will be a political battle, and I just happen to think Jordan Roth's party is the strongest here. But you never know. AAIP has smitten most who see it. Could go all the way.