Posted: 7/14/15 at 2:17pm
"Also, you literally counted the number of seats sold/available? Im sorry to say that you wasted our time because those seating charts are never accurate. "
I know they are not 100% accurate but in my experience in the past few weeks they were accurate enough to see if the capacity goes up or down. Naturally, Telecharge says nothing about gross.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 2:19pm
Posted: 7/14/15 at 2:20pm
Darren's opening week (6 performances) grossed 418K, his second worst gross (based on attendance %) of the entire run, yet he improved somewhat from there. He may end up with 500+K sales for only 3 of his 12 week run (the rest all fell within the 391-479K range). All the other Hedwigs averaged for their runs 550+K at the minimum, with their closing week ranging from 660K to 1 million.
Taye's s a known name, and if the buzz on him grows, even a sluggish first week doesn't harbinger a weaker run automatically.
However we need actual weekly grosses for Taye's run before we can project overall his run won't be as successful, not partial data based on one site.
Updated On: 7/14/15 at 02:20 PM
Posted: 7/14/15 at 2:24pm
"And gross is what matters, not capacity. "
And I know that? But if he ends up with round about the same capacity as Darren did then it's also likely he will end up with round about the same grosses.
If that's the case then I would say Hedwig is on its last leg.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 2:32pm
""And gross is what matters, not capacity. "
And I know that? But if he ends up with round about the same capacity as Darren did then it's also likely he will end up with round about the same grosses.
If that's the case then I would say Hedwig is on its last leg."
What's the big deal about waiting until we have weekly grosses ? I agree that if Taye's sales don't improve things Hedwig may be on it's last run, but you seem intent in burying him before we have actual numbers.
It's going to take a while to see the trend of Taye's numbers, just like Darren eventually started getting better numbers well over a month into his run and finally hit 500K in his 9th week. I didn't see the Darren fans writing him off after the first few weeks of sluggish sales so I think Taye deserves the same benefit of the doubt. It seems Hedwig can 'survive' grossing 475K a week so than again if Taye can do that maybe Hedwig can live on.
Updated On: 7/14/15 at 02:32 PM
Posted: 7/14/15 at 2:36pm
HedwigInch,
you are doing a lot of assuming and you know what they say about people who assume.
Capacity can be a function of comps, gross can be a function of demand; they have a very weak correlation.
"then I would say Hedwig is on its last leg"
But what about variables that are not on your radar? What if Justin Timberlake replaces Diggs? Lady Gaga? NPH returns?
What do you know about Diggs's contract? The typical numbers for this show have been such that the gross you project is actually profitable. Why would it close? What show is waiting in the wings such the the Shuberts would push it out?
Generalizations are easy but they also don't mean much.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 2:36pm
Posted: 7/14/15 at 2:39pm
""But if he ends up with round about the same capacity as Darren did then it's also likely he will end up with round about the same grosses."
That's not true at all. Have you heard of discounts and papering? "
Of course I have.
I am done with this now. I only wanted to share what I noticed on Telecharge. Do with that what you want or nothing at all. None of my business.
Updated On: 7/14/15 at 02:39 PM
Posted: 7/14/15 at 5:08pm
Analyzing weekly grosses and market trends are more complex than just looking at a Telecharge seating chart and making a lot of inaccurate assumptions.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 5:13pm
You all act like I said Taye sold less seats on Telecharge so far so that totally means his grosses will suck and Hedwig closes. I said he might not do better than Darren, that it's simply my first impression.
But hey, lesson learned.
I will just do what I do and keep my mouth shut on here.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 5:17pm
lol they always try to get you on something !
Posted: 7/14/15 at 6:05pm
Exactly
Posted: 7/14/15 at 6:52pm
lol they always try to get you on something !
No need to "try" when you do it for us. It's so much funner that way!
Posted: 7/14/15 at 6:56pm
"You all act like I said Taye sold less seats on Telecharge so far so that totally means his grosses will suck and Hedwig closes. I said he might not do better than Darren, that it's simply my first impression.
But hey, lesson learned.
I will just do what I do and keep my mouth shut on here."
You also said about " I am sure he won't do terribly, especailly with tourists in town who might not care too much about who is playing Hedwig. "
Sorry but if some other post made that patronizing side swipe directed at Darren Criss, I'm sure you would take it as an insult.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 7:16pm
""You all act like I said Taye sold less seats on Telecharge so far so that totally means his grosses will suck and Hedwig closes. I said he might not do better than Darren, that it's simply my first impression.
But hey, lesson learned.
I will just do what I do and keep my mouth shut on here."
You also said about " I am sure he won't do terribly, especailly with tourists in town who might not care too much about who is playing Hedwig. "
Sorry but if some other post made that patronizing side swipe directed at Darren Criss, I'm sure you would take it as an insult.
"
Except I meant it as in "People won't not go to Hedwig just because they are not familiar with Taye. That they will see the show if they want to see the show. It's not just people seeing Hedwig for the sake of seeing the lead actor in particular".
I am pretty sure plenty of people who had no clue who Darren was still saw the show. In fact I know of friends who talked to people at shows who said they weren't familar with Darren before but wanted to see the show.
There were worse things said about Darren on here and I didn't take it as an insult but nice try.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 8:12pm
Again, the actual box office gross will tell the tale.
My first impression is that Taye has a well enough name he will do well in Hedwig. Just a hunch, but I think he might do at least 418K his first week in box office gross. If he doesn't, well yea, they may start talking about closing the show.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 8:27pm
"Again, the actual box office gross will tell the tale.
My first impression is that Taye has a well enough name he will do well in Hedwig. Just a hunch, but I think he might do at least 418K his first week in box office gross. If he doesn't, well yea, they may start talking about closing the show.
"
I don't think he will do worse than Darren in the long run to be honest. My guess is the show is aging so the grosses will go down over time but they might not with Taye, maybe the Hedwig after that unless it's a really big name or something.
I am not trying to prove Taye will do worse, I was only trying to answer the question if Taye has a huge draw and right now looking at Telecharge I wouldn't say his is bigger than Darren's but we will see.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 8:47pm
Why focus on telecharge incomplete numbers when we will have actual grosses to compare within 2 weeks. As others mentioned, pricing and discounts are as much a factor, and the opening night is only 1 of 6 performances for the first week grosses.
I'm hoping that Taye will revitalize the Hedwig box office, which certainly needs a boost since I suspect it's been operating for awhile near break even.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 8:54pm
"Why focus on telecharge incomplete numbers when we will have actual grosses to compare within 2 weeks. As others mentioned, pricing and discounts are as much a factor, and the opening night is only 1 of 6 performances for the first week grosses.
I'm hoping that Taye will revitalize the Hedwig box office, which certainly needs a boost since I suspect it's been operating for awhile near break even."
As I said before I tried to get an idea about how things are going earlier. That's why I kept saying it's too early to tell but that that is the first impression I have for now. I even said a few times that it's too early to tell because of same day sales and other things. I also looked at more than just his opening night. None of them are blowing me away right now with pre sales.
I don't think he will get to NPH's level of gross but maybe he will do a little better in the end than Darren, or he won't. We won't know until we know but I wanted to get a hunch in advance. If his pre sales had been amazing already then that could have been an indicator he is a bigger draw than Darren. That's all.
Edit: Pre sales might be the wrong word I am using but I mean ticket sales before they go to the tkts booth.
Updated On: 7/14/15 at 08:54 PM
Posted: 7/14/15 at 9:00pm
True, Taye could do much worse than Darren, a little worse, about the same , a little better, or much better. 12 weeks is enough time for an apples to apples comparison, as the numbers don't lie.
Who knows?
Posted: 7/14/15 at 9:18pm
I saw that the League revised the gross for Penn and Teller to $1, 075,000, so it cracked the million dollar club for a week of seven previews plus opening night when many if not most seats are likely comped. Is this number surprising? It was the 10th highest grossing show for the week. Even though this is a very limited six week run, is it likely to gross $1 million or more every week?
Additionally, last week's number obviously did not take the reviews into account, the overwhelming number of them being very positive.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 9:26pm
This entire board has become such a complete and total train wreck that I barely ever post anymore. A combination of the most vicious, disgusting, know it all bitches on the entire internet (Filthy headband, I'm looking at you ----- you were particularly charming when you suggested that PhillyPinto kill himself, multiple times. You are a psycho.) and now an influx of young and rather naive posters who HAVE to have the last word in every debate with the evil veteran know it alls, resulting in threads that are derailed daily, if not hourly. All in all, a truly reprehensible experience lately. The only reason to come here anymore is to watch the carnage.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 9:51pm
Lol omg
Posted: 7/14/15 at 9:57pm
Perhaps a little levity is in order.
Posted: 7/14/15 at 9:58pm
Matt Rogers? Matt Rogers of Story Pirates? Is that you?! Testing... 1, 2, 3... Testing...
