The show's capitalization is weird as the production itself has a cost of $35.5 Million to mount, but then there was another $33 Million to renovate the Lyric (10 Million) and pay off the capitalization of Cirque du Soleil's Paramour ($23 Million), to push it out of the theater. It was never clear whether Cursed Child's producers were responsible for the additional $33 Million or it was to be paid by the Ambassador Theater group. Even so assuming the weekly running costs are about $1 Million a week, the Cursed Child's Broadway production has a net profit of approximately $67.5 Million dollars. This would mean the show is within weeks of turning a profit. More likely the show added another few million two its capitalization with the redesign and new marketing, but even so the show should turn a profit by at latest Christmas.
I have a feeling we are overestimating the running costs though with 2nd cast likely being paid a lot less, in addition for the production not having to pay to house English based actors. Its running costs are more likely around $900K, which I still think might be over estimating considering it is a play so they aren't paying for an orchestra, and most of the running costs are going towards stage hands and technical costs, which can decrease over time due to technological improvements.
Overall though, it would be a scandal on par with Jekyll and Hyde, Ragtime, or even Rebecca if Cursed Child were to fail to recoup. Most of the blame for this could actually be easily pointed at the producers for being so picky in their choice of theater costing the production an additional $33 Million and strict time table for the production. If anything the production could of waited 3-6 months and saved $23 Million dollars just by waiting out Paramour. Paramour's box office was extremely inconsistent fluctuating an average of $166K week to week variances, which didn't bode well for the show long term. Winter seemed to hit the show hard with grosses falling bellow 700K for multiple weeks, and it seemed like a show that would be lost in the shuffle of awards season, and be forgotten about by the time the new season started. In other words instead of forcing the show to close in April, Paramour would of likely closed on its own by August/September. Add to that Cursed Child did not need to open in Spring 2018, and qualify/be an awards season darling. The production was able to sell 90% of the tickets to its first year of performances within days of going on sale over 6 months prior to the first performance so its awards had little to do with its initial box office boom. The show would have been just as successful if it opened July/August. which were 90% sold out in just a few days. , which were 90% sold out in just a few days.
As said in a previous thread the the shows biggest sales problem is the delay between ticket block releases.. Remember tickets initially went on sale October 2017, for tickets February 2018-February 2019, which were 90% sold out in just a few days. Then the second block of tickets weren't released until September of 2019, for tickets February 2019-June 2019. The most recent release of tickets was in May for tickets July 2019-March 2020. Many had bought tickets over between 6-18 months before seeing the production, giving the show the idea of being an event you had to plan to see. The issue is that as the space between release of ticket blocks and actual performance date has shrunk, the idea of that planning 6 months out hasn't. The show is a full day, or 2 day commitment, which means you have to plan for it, its not the type of show you would decided to see a week or two out. Add to that they show has waited way too long to between releasing new ticket blocks, causing demand for tickets to die down so there is not longer that initial rush for tickets like there was for the initial release. The show should of released the 2nd block of tickets the day after the Tony Awards were it won 6 awards like every other big winner at the Tonys has done. The producers are clearly treating the production more like a tourist attraction rather then a piece of theater. The even when the production touted its Tony wins in its marketing, there were no tickets available for the general public to buy.The show has lost its SRO status, which is hard to regain once lost. The only production that have been able to do that is The Lion King. Many forget that the production was hit hard by the 2008 recession, to the point where the show was actually offering discounts for weeks that weren't part of large scale discounts like Kids Night on Broadway and Broadway 2for1 Week (I know this isn't surprising for most shows, but it was as if Hamilton had all of a sudden gone on discount at the time). Its grosses had fallen to an average of 80% potential and 90% capacity through its 15th Anniversary in 2012, where as if by Disney Magic the show was able to regain momentum and regain its SRO status, and has been playing to capacity since. Their re-brand is clearly an attempt to try recreate Disney's wall to wall marketing blitz for The Lion King's 15th Anniversary, and could help. Only time will tell though.
In the end though Cursed Child is on the brink of renouncement and will be considered a "hit" when all is said and done.
