I don't think it would be an upset, but I'd be pumped if GREAT COMET won Best Musical.
The big upsets: Pasek and Paul for Best Score, SJB or Colella for Featured Actress (I'd love a three-way tie!), Michael Greif for Director, or literally anyone but Dave Malloy for Orchestrations.
"I saw Pavarotti play Rodolfo on stage and with his girth I thought he was about to eat the whole table at the Cafe Momus." - Dollypop