Mister Matt, your post was patronizing so I wont bother writing out a proper response.
LOL. I had no problem writing a proper response when you were being patronizing, but okay. I actually read the Brutally Honest Ballots from the Hollywood Reporter and none of them mention exterior factors with respect to their opinions on La La Land or Moonlight (though more than one talks about Fences being just the play on film and/or already winning the Tony). Here are the quotes thus far regarding La La Land and Moonlight with respect to Best Picture:
#1: "Moonlight and Hacksaw Ridge were really very good, but I don't think of them as a best picture. La La Land was tremendously enjoyable, but not all that deep or memorable."
My vote
(1) Hell or High Water
(2) Manchester by the Sea
(3) La La Land
(4) Hacksaw Ridge
(5) Moonlight
#2: "I liked La La Land a great deal, but it felt a little light for me — I feel like a curmudgeon saying that, but it's true, it just was not a home run...But, as far as my vote, it wasn't close for me: I just loved Moonlight. The construction and humanity of it was just outstanding — [co-writer/director] Barry Jenkins is really a poet. A story about someone who is just desperately seeking love — I mean, who could not be touched by it? I thought it was amazing."
My vote
(1) Moonlight, (2) Arrival, (3) Manchester by the Sea, (4) Hell or High Water, (5) La La Land
#3: "I really admire Moonlight — the look of it and the story, which left me feeling like I was really f---ing there, and brilliant Marsala [Mahershala Ali] — but it was a tad inconsistent, with the first two thirds much better than the last third, and I was distracted by having characters played by multiple actors who look nothing alike...I normally go for sort of heavy films like Life of Pi, and I normally don't like musicals, but because everything's so f---ing miserable in the world, La La Land — even though it doesn't end on a positive note — took me out of the moment and found a place in my heart. It was a good distraction.
I actually saw it, for the first time, on Thanksgiving Day — I've seen it three times — all by myself, which I don't normally do, but my wife was out of town and I went there and I left with a skip in my step. It made me happy that I live in town. It was wonderful.
My vote
(1) La La Land
(2) Moonlight
(3) Hell or High Water
(4) Lion
(5) Manchester by the Sea
#4: "I did not like La La Land — I thought it was imitative and I did not think the leads could sing or dance. I am of an age where I saw [1953's The] Band Wagon and [1952's] Singin' in the Rain, so how could I give this one an award that they never got? Yes, the music is good, but the fact that it got 14 nominations makes me wonder about my colleagues' opinions. I really felt it was a piece of ****...My choice was Moonlight, which is everything I think an Oscar picture should be: good script, good story, good performances and about something meaningful. It's not quite The Best Years of Our Lives, but it shows what it's like to live in a world where we seem to be disconnected from our families. Here, a child gets saved from — is she [the character played by Naomie Harris] his mother or his sister? — and gets a [surrogate] father that he didn't have. I loved it."
My vote
(1) Moonlight
(2) Lion
(3) Fences
(4) [left blank]
(5) [left blank]
#5: "I liked La La Land, Hell or High Water and Lion very much...But I loved Moonlight — it was so simply and beautifully done, without any BS. It totally won me over."
My vote
(1) Moonlight
(2) Hacksaw Ridge
(3) Lion
(4) Hell or High Water
(5) La La Land
#6: "I wasn't crazy about Hell or High Water or Arrival. La La Land was mediocre — it didn't do anything for me...My favorite, though, was Moonlight. I thought it was absolutely terrific — they constantly surprised me and I thought it was so, so well done."
My vote
(1) Moonlight
(2) Lion
(3) Hidden Figures
(4) Manchester by the Sea
(5) Hacksaw Ridge
BRUTALLY HONEST OSCAR VOTER BALLOT
You can speculate as to the unspoken external factors why they loved Moonlight or hated La La Land, but it's not in what they actually say about them. They do mention that they didn't see all the nominated films and one bitches about the number of nominated films at length, which only makes them look like douchebags who shouldn't be allowed to vote and most likely represent the reason why there are so many nominees now. Too many nominees can't be bothered to see anything more than the most buzz-worthy of the Best Picture nominees.
"What can you expect from a bunch of seitan worshippers?" - Reginald Tresilian