Honestly I'm not convinced Lea is getting nominated, like I certainly think it's possible but by no means a guarantee. I think Caissie Levy and Marla Mindelle are locks for noms (and my assumption is the win will go to either of them), followed by Shoshana Bean and Jessica Vosk. And then the last slot could go Lea Michele or Sara Chase or Christiani Pitts. Lea in particular is hampered by a terrible book that does nothing to really help her out in terms of crafting character, so the parts where she shines really are just the big songs. Though I think the good will from Funny Girl could push her over into getting that nom, especially since she seems to be on the campaign trail already, but based on performance alone I personally would not consider it a Tony winning performance.