NY Times Tony Predictions (based on voter interviews)- Page 2

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:20pm

I wasn't for sure if it was accurate or not, but I remember one guy I was just having casual conversation with talking to me about when LION KING first opened and won the Tony, tickets were impossible to get (or at least a good 6 months or so ahead of time). He actually said it was hard to get good seats for it a year in advance (but I doubted that). I would expect that it was like MORMON is now. Although, when I did lottery once I saw a couple on their anniversary buy tickets to BOM for their anniversary NEXT year, lol.



Updated On: 6/7/12 at 10:20 PM

[ACL2006]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:23pm

Tarzan & Mermaid where never on Broadway at the same time. Disney has had, at the most, four shows on Broadway at once(from Oct. 2006 - July 2007).

Beauty & the Beast(April 1994 - July 2007)
The Lion King(Oct. 1997 - present)
Aida(March 2000 - Sept. 2004)
Tarzan(May 2006 - July 2007)
Mary Poppins(Oct. 2006-present)
The Little Mermaid(Jan. 2008 - Aug. 2009)
Newsies(March 2012 - present)

[Jonwo]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:23pm

The Producers was a hot ticket when it came out but sales slipped once Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick left, it was still a strong seller but it started to be overshadowed by bigger shows like Wicked.

[Bwaydide92]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:27pm

NEWSIES has the same advantage as MORMON since it doesn't have any big names. Jeremy Jordan comes closest, but even he's not HUGE. MORMON's sales are still strong into next year, and I think people will get over the fact that Rannells and Gad are gone. The show is the star, same for NEWSIES.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:34pm

....and same for ONCE.

[Bwaydide92]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:37pm

I'm not sure if ONCE will have as long a life as NEWSIES. I don't think its appeal will reach out as far outside of the theatre community. And it doesn't have Disney backing it up. Nothing against the show though.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:45pm

ONCE has been selling phenomenally well, without a huge name like Disney backing it. In fact, most of the people I've talked to who generally don't love theater really enjoyed ONCE. And those same people didn't enjoy NEWSIES. ONCE seems like a lot more of a "non theater lovers" show, whereas NEWSIES screams "THEATER GEEKS/FAN GIRLS". It cartwheels, tap-dances, and pirouettes until your head spins.

ONCE seems to, for now, be putting the "if it's not based on a huge movie, a star vehicle, or a Disney production, audiences won't warm up to it" claims to rest. It's doing incredibly well. I just don't get the sentiment that the Best Musical winner should be the most tourable or tourist-friendly. If the voters don't crown ONCE the Best Musical of the year (which it IS), they'll never know if it will appeal to tourists or work well on tour. Until then, they'll keep rewarding mindless, cloyingly joyful, medicore shows like NEWSIES. Safe. Boring. Blah.


And for the record, I do think ONCE will win. And I really, really hope I'm right. Updated On: 6/7/12 at 10:45 PM

[Bwaydide92]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:50pm

I meant that NEWSIES has the name factor going for it. I wish no harm against ONCE and if it really is the best musical of the season, I would wish that the Tony voters would recognize that, which they don't always (NEXT TO NORMAL).

I think ONCE has been getting it's great sales from the amazing reviews it's been getting (has it gotten any bad ones?) But it's lifespan most likely won't be as long as the safe show. That's just how business works.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 10:56pm

Newsies will continue to do well even if it doesn't win best musical, there are a number of successful shows that have run longer or still running that shows that have won best musical at the Tonys. Awards are nice but in the long run, a well attended show that is selling well is more important.

I wouldn't be surprised if touring producers are already asking for a Newsies tour which is going to happen but Disney will likely announce it after the Tonys.

[ljay889]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 11:29pm

Riedel predicts Newsies will win.

He's another one who says Best Actor in a Musical is between Jordan and Kazee. I really wish Burstein would get this, but I'd be ok if Kazee gets it.

https://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/theater/predicting_sunday_tony_news_ies_BKrrYspWJgYM2S032e7mNN

[bdn223]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 11:31pm

I don't want to sound like an ass, butI give a Once 6 months after Cristin and Steve leave...like most artsy shows the audience becomes cultish and will not accept the/any cast change (Next to Normal/Spring Awakening/Hair) 2 of which lasted 6 months, one lasted only a month..so honestly it may help the tour but it won't help the Broadway production.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 11:35pm

He also thinks James Corden will win. And as much I hope he does, I think it'll be Hoffman.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 11:40pm

Riedel didn't like Once so it's not surprising that he favoured Newsies over Once.

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 11:41pm

Riedel has had nothing but good words to say about NEWSIES since day 1.

When it first opened, though, he said that if ONCE is NEWSIES' biggest competition for Best Musical, then NEWSIES will win in a cake walk. I don't quite think that panned out like he thought, however. I think he was referencing that in relationship to how road voters would vote, though, because one he interviewed said something like NEWSIES could tour anywhere in America, but ONCE could maybe go to the Edinburgh Festival.

While that maybe a tad hyperbolized impression, the comparison is more or less accurate in an overall sense.

Regardless of touring potential though, I think NEWSIES is the all around better musical (out of two very good musicals). ONCE is great, but NEWSIES just has it all. And while they shouldn't be the sole basis of awards, I do think audience appeal often speaks to how good a show really is, as that is what keeps them afloat and allows them to continue. Musicals are meant to fundamentally entertain, and in order to do that, they have to have an audience. So I do believe theatergoers' should have more of a voice (although you could argue that their voice is the weekly gross numbers, lol).



Updated On: 6/7/12 at 11:41 PM

[wonderfulwizard11]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 11:45pm

See, I don't agree that Once won't be able to tour. Yes, it's a smaller show and maybe not as overtly crowd pleasing as Newsies, but the word of mouth on the show is great and audiences clearly seem to be enjoying it. And it wouldn't be the first show to tour and do quite well- Spring Awakening, Next to Normal, and Spelling Bee, are a few smaller shows that toured despite the fact that they weren't runaway smash hits. Once would be absolutely fine on the road.

[bdn223]

Posted: 6/7/12 at 11:55pm

Ridels rational between about guys backing Newsies and girls backing Once would make since if this were the Oscars...meaning despite the high number of gays in Hollywood Oscar voters are still old Hollywood, so its a true mans club, while the Tonys is very much gays and girls..so if he means the guys who like Newsies like to look at the boys...then Newsies has it, but honestly I don't think Once does play as well to they gays...if anyone want to chime in on that note...but honestly since I would say the straight guys and Whoopi Goldberg vote newsies and the girls vote Once i really think its up to the gays to decide who's gonna win.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 12:36am

Riedel would rather pull his fingernails off one by one than ever admit he's wrong. So it's really not surprising that he's sticking by his NEWSIES predictions and continuing to rave about it.

[theatreguy]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 12:45am

If Once loses, it will be the first musical to do so after winning the Outer Critics Circle, Drama Desk, Drama League and New York Drama Critic's Circle Awards. While The Life, Ragtime and Wicked all won the first 3, they lost the NYDCC.

If Newsies wins, it would be the second show to do so without winning any pre-cursor awards for Best Musical. Titanic was the first.

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 12:48am

Riedel also predicted that Spider-Man and Bernadette Peters would be nominated...

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 12:55am

Yeah, but that is completely different. Everyone knew at that point Best Musical would be between NEWSIES and ONCE, with Nice Work getting the third nod (but no chance of winning). The fourth slot was a complete tossup for the second show that would be thrown to the slaughter. Reidal gave SPIDEY the edge because it was doing great business and still open, whereas everyone knew LEAP was a ticking time bomb. Honestly, I'm surprised they gave it to LEAP. If it were me, it would have gone to GHOST. Like I said, it didn't matter what show was getting that spot, it was just fun speculation. Everyone knew it was either ONCE or NEWSIES, so the show that got the 4th spot was irrelevant. And he wasn't the only one who thought Bernadette would get nominated. You can't tell me that Luara's nom wasn't a surprise (I hadn't seen and predictions give her a chance. It was either Bernadette, Elena Roger or Kara Lindsey). Deserved, but it was a shock (and nice to see) that the committee would look back and recognize her.





Updated On: 6/8/12 at 12:55 AM

[peachesr82]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 4:13am

I think if Once didn't win at this point it would be massive shock, but then I didn't think Leap would get a spot either so I guess anything is possible. The nominations this year had a few WTF moments I think so who's to say that won't transfer to the winners. And let's not forget that Memphis won...it actually won so they're not beyond doing something really bizzare. I don't know all the ins and outs but I can on assume that didn't win everything in the lead up.

Personally I wasn't too enamoured of Once and prefered Newsies but I can see why everyone has being going nuts over Once, just not my thing. I would assume that with the summer breaks coming up, Newsies would fair better being a more 'universal' show. I mean, you're more likely to take your brood to Newsies than Once aren't you?

[Jay94]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 5:53am

Newsies v. Once

In what other years has the best musical race been this close:

Kiss of the Spider Woman v. The Who's Tommy
Nine v. Dreamgirls
The Lion King v. Ragtime
Thoroughly Modern Mille v. Urinetown
Passion v. Beauty and the Beast
Fiorello v. The Sound of Music

[adamgreer]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 7:33am

NPR had Elizabeth Vincentelli and Adam Feldman on this morning to offer their Tony predictions. The segment ended before they got to any of the musical categories, however.

They agreed Actress in a Play was the most competitive category of the night, with 4 of the women all standing a chance at winning. Feldman gave the edge to Arianda, while Vincentelli gave it to Tracie Bennett.

on Actor in a Play, they both agreed Hoffman would probably win, though each was pulling for James Corden.

Neither one thought Revival of a Play would be very close, with Salesman taking it.

For Best Play, Vincentelli railed against Peter and the Starcatcher, referring to it as "overrated children's theater", which Feldman adamantly disagreed with. Both, however, felt Best Play was between Clybourne Park and Other Desert Cities, with Clybourne Park having all the current momentum.

Just as they were about to get into the musical categories (they got no further than both stating they were entertained by Newsies but loved Once), the segment ended. I wonder if a more complete analysis is on the website.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 8:03am

on Actor in a Play, they both agreed Hoffman would probably win, though each was pulling for James Corden.

I feel like this is what EVERYONE is saying. Everyone is predicting Hoffman, but rooting for Corden. If that's the case, Corden is actually most likely the favorite to win. Who is to say that the Tony voters don't feel the same way that we do? They fell in love with James Corden, each will vote for him, but each will think that they are the only person voting for James while everyone else votes for Hoffman. I really think James is going to take it.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 11:10am

Random, but do you all think Cerveris is in the lead to take Featured Actor in a Musical?

Every pundit seems to be favoring him, but I thought he gave the weakest performance out of the nominees. I'd love to see Boykin win. He was phenomenal.

Or even McGrath, who practically steals the show, even from frontrunner Kaye (who I think is good, but again, not deserving of the Tony).